QB Draft Rankings a Year* Out

[stbugs]

8 minutes ago, Valentino said:

We should not tank tho , if we tank we’ll end up with the 3rd pick and miss out on Lawrence and fields so I’m not down to tank . I think we might have a good season , no one is expecting us to 

If we started Grier like we started Clausen and Weinke, we’d get the #1 pick. He’s garbage. Pretty sure we’ll be giving up 35 a game if we take a QB at 7.

[stbugs]

1 hour ago, rippadonn said:

This is the next best chance to grab a QB because you need to reignite the Panthers fan base.

#7 was the tank.

If you want to reignite the fan base you just have to a win. Grabbing a QB at 7 means we will again have the worst D to go along with the worst OL. That’ll excite everyone.

Also, lol at #7 being the tank. We clearly weren’t trying to tank. We drafted Little in the 2nd and paid a lot of money to Paradis to strengthen an OL that ended up just as bad as Miami’s OL that was gutted (traded Tunsil and release Pouncey). They traded away all their talent and Marty guided us to a super talented same 5-11 by spending to the cap limit on FAs. We tried to get better and still sucked.

[MHS831]

1 hour ago, rippadonn said:

They won't listen. They're in love with Trevor.

He has locks of gold though.

[AU-panther]

1 hour ago, Evil Hurney said:

It seems like every year we hear about a fan base clamoring for their team to "Suck for Luck" or "Tank for Tua", but how well can we really predict the QB field a year in advance? Is it worth it to tank?

With those questions in mind, I used archive.org and walterfootball (since they consistently rank position groups a year early) to compile the top 5 QB rankings roughly 1 year before the draft. For example, the 2019 top 5 is from roughly May of 2018.

The lack of top tier NFL QBs on this list should concern anyone wanting to plan on tanking an entire season for one guy, but you are free to come to your own conclusion.

 

How about the same list but right before the draft?

I get what you are saying that one year out your idea of who to tank for might be wrong, but as the year goes along you can change your mind, and still pick one of the top QBs.

So tanking still helps you get a better QB, just not the one you were  planning on.

With that being said though I do agree tanking for just one guy is hard.  There is too much parity in the league, Miami tried really hard to tank ended up drafting 5th.

The flipside though if you do tank you at least put yourself in position to draft a guy early in the draft.  You might not get Trevor, but if you feel the QB class overall is a lot stronger then this year you can increase your chances of getting one of the top 2 or 3.

 

 

 

[Soul Rebel]

5 minutes ago, AU-panther said:

How about the same list but right before the draft?

I get what you are saying that one year out your idea of who to tank for might be wrong, but as the year goes along you can change your mind, and still pick one of the top QBs.

So tanking still helps you get a better QB, just not the one you were  planning on.

 

This is true. Franchise QBs will almost always go top-5, so the methodology of being in the convo for the first 5 picks nets you a franchise QB....just not the one predicted by analysts over a year out from the draft.

There are four franchise QBs as of now for 2021, IMO - Lawrence, Fields, Lance, Newman. Odds are the first two are there, but who knows.

[rippadonn]

30 minutes ago, stbugs said:

If you want to reignite the fan base you just have to a win. Grabbing a QB at 7 means we will again have the worst D to go along with the worst OL. That’ll excite everyone.

Also, lol at #7 being the tank. We clearly weren’t trying to tank. We drafted Little in the 2nd and paid a lot of money to Paradis to strengthen an OL that ended up just as bad as Miami’s OL that was gutted (traded Tunsil and release Pouncey). They traded away all their talent and Marty guided us to a super talented same 5-11 by spending to the cap limit on FAs. We tried to get better and still sucked.

Yeah, um, this team isn't winning until they rebuild, so I wouldn't worry about that.

Rebuild, start at QB. Nothing else matters.

[saX man]

You should be scrubbing the sink before it visibly needs a scrub.  Ya know?

[mrcompletely11]

11 minutes ago, rippadonn said:

Yeah, um, this team isn't winning until they rebuild, so I wouldn't worry about that.

Rebuild, start at QB. Nothing else matters.

I would argue a oline is pretty important for a new qb.  And ours is piss poor at the moment

[rippadonn]

2 hours ago, Evil Hurney said:

It seems like every year we hear about a fan base clamoring for their team to "Suck for Luck" or "Tank for Tua", but how well can we really predict the QB field a year in advance? Is it worth it to tank?

With those questions in mind, I used archive.org and walterfootball (since they consistently rank position groups a year early) to compile the top 5 QB rankings roughly 1 year before the draft. For example, the 2019 top 5 is from roughly May of 2018.

The lack of top tier NFL QBs on this list should concern anyone wanting to plan on tanking an entire season for one guy, but you are free to come to your own conclusion.

 

Whoa! Where's Joe? Uh Oh...

Makes you question Burrow coming out of nowhere. Was it system? Will he end up like those USC QBs when they get to the NFL?

This is the most interesting and potentially confounding or potentially stacked draft at QB.

So many QB hungry teams in the top ten. Will someone reach? Yes. Yes they will. Will any of these QBs succeed? In the right system, yes.

I just have the feeling there is going to be a feeding frenzy at the QB position. Burrow, Tua, Herbert, Love.

Speaking of Love. If anybody would take him in the first round the Panthers should do their due diligence and figure out if he's a Rhule guy or not. Knowing what I've researched about Rhule he seems like the kind of guy he'd snag.

There's also been chatter that NE would pick him as their first pick. I know how many feel but there were actually pundits who said he was top ten or the 3rd best QB in the draft. What if this ended up being Mahommes 2.0 and you pass?

There is a lot at stake for these teams. 4 potential starting future franchise QB s. Very intrigued with what may happen. Could Burrow drop? Nobody talks about how that could flip the whole script.

[Soul Rebel]

Pick #7 has to be defense straight away. 

We brought in two QBs this offseason - a very competent veteran starter that is only 27 yo and familiar with our OC. The second QB being a 25-year old prospect that has the potential to be a long-term answer or at least a solid QB2 for us that can be relied upon to win in a pinch.

We also brought in 4 WRs and re-signed our do-it-all RB. 

Okung is a solid LT - might not go to the Pro-Bowl for us, but is an upgrade at LT that we haven't had since Gross.

Jon Miller is a good guard and I think Daley will solidify the other guard position. Moton is a young promising RT.

None of our OL is a guarantee, but offense will be what carries this team and the basket where most of our eggs are in.

Greg Little is 22 & Dennis Daley is 23, with Miller being only 26. If (and it's a pretty decent "if") they both pan out, we have a very solid 4 out of 5 OL with Moton at 25 years old heading into 2021.

Since we really aren't on track to be a playoff/SB contender in 2020, why not see what you have in your assets, rather than use a high pick like #7 on OL. WR makes even less sense since this is an historic draft for WRs and value can be had in round 3 at the position.

 

[cmichd]

How many Super Bowls did the 1st QB selected in the 1979 draft win?   How many Super Bowls did a 3rd round QB win from the same class?

 

[Varking]

1) You don't just "tank" in just any random year and take the top available QB. "Tanking" only truly works in light of generational type QBs. Andrew Luck was a total tank job for the Colts and it worked out just fine for them. 

2) Tanking can be smart if that said generational talent is a clear cut above everyone else. Like Luck in his class there wasn't going to be anyone close to him. The numbers he put up and the ability to go from worst team to playoff team his rookie year shouldn't be slept out.

3) I do not believe that Trevor Lawrence is far superior to Justin Fields.On true QB drop back passing plays Justin Fields had a higher rating than every QB this year including Burrow, Tua, Herbet and even Lawrence. While I think this is the first draft class in forever where I can see two day 1 starters that boost their teams in Fields and Lawrence it stands to reason you don't need to be the absolute worst team to get a QB of the future. If you finish in the bottom 4 you have a chance to snag Fields.

4) Be objective fans instead of homers. Remove the word "tank" and just admit we "suck". You don't have to tank, or lose on purpose, to secure yourself a top pick in the draft. Sometimes these magical teams come around and they are just bad. That is us. We are one of the lucky few who are in for a rough year before it even starts. 

A) We have one of the worst defenses in the NFL and we bled talent on that side of the ball this year including having our hall of fame MLB retire. Our top corner left to become a Giant, McCoy is gone from the defensive line, Reid was cut and none of the talent we brought in is objectively on the same level as what was removed. And again, this was on the worst run defense and one of the worst whole defenses in the NFL. This season won't be pretty from a defensive side of the ball. 

B) We have to play two games this year against Matt Ryan+ Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley with a defense better than ours. We play Drew Brees + Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara with a defense than is better than ours. We play Tampa Bay twice this year and they just removed a QB who threw 30 interceptions and replaced him with Tom Brady. While Brady isn't going to throw for 5k yards he still have two #1 WRs to throw to in Tampa and won't turn the ball over 30 times. All three of these teams should beat ours twice. That is 6 losses right there. 

C) We got better on offense, kind of. We no longer have Greg as an option. DJ Moore blossomed into a stud and Curtis Samuel is who he is... a guy who has the tools to turn heads but he isn't going to break out in a big way for a whole year. Robby Anderson was a good pickup. CMC is the best back in the NFL. So we lose a known TE and gain a known WR. I will take it. Teddy should be better than Kyle Allen so that is a plus. But the objective truth around Teddy is that he has 34 starts in the NFL and 38 passing touchdowns. He has twice made it to 14 touchdown passes in a season but never made it to 15. Nobody should be expecting us to be in air raid and think Teddy is tossing this thing 30 times a game. He is a game manager. 

D) On offensive line we lost talent. That talent was injury prone but they had talent. We then traded one of our more consistent offensive lineman for a left tackle. I like this move and I think it will work out but if I am being objective its hard to look at this as a plus and not a lateral move. If healthy, Okung is a good lineman. Trai Turner was too. But Trai is also younger. But protective the blindside is important so its kind of a wash. 

Outside of the 6 games we are going to lose to divisional opponents who else do we play?

Bears, Lions, Packers and Vikings. The only chance at a winnable game here is Lions. Maybe the Bears?

Cardinals, Redskins, Chargers, Chiefs.Maybe we could beat the Redskins? The others offense will be too good against us. 

Broncos and Raiders. Broncos will beat us but maybe the Raiders? 

Like we can't believably enter the season at any week and believe we are going to be the favorite to win a game. Its a toss up game or likely loss. 

So again, we don't need to force a tank when its likely going to be a poor season anyway. 

 

[Varking]

15 minutes ago, cmichd said:

How many Super Bowls did the 1st QB selected in the 1979 draft win?   How many Super Bowls did a 3rd round QB win from the same class?

 

If we are going off of the past then we shouldn't even have a draft because we haven't won any Super Bowls with any of the players we have drafted. 

[theinstrumental]

8 minutes ago, Varking said:

1) You don't just "tank" in just any random year and take the top available QB. "Tanking" only truly works in light of generational type QBs. Andrew Luck was a total tank job for the Colts and it worked out just fine for them. 

2) Tanking can be smart if that said generational talent is a clear cut above everyone else. Like Luck in his class there wasn't going to be anyone close to him. The numbers he put up and the ability to go from worst team to playoff team his rookie year shouldn't be slept out.

3) I do not believe that Trevor Lawrence is far superior to Justin Fields.On true QB drop back passing plays Justin Fields had a higher rating than every QB this year including Burrow, Tua, Herbet and even Lawrence. While I think this is the first draft class in forever where I can see two day 1 starters that boost their teams in Fields and Lawrence it stands to reason you don't need to be the absolute worst team to get a QB of the future. If you finish in the bottom 4 you have a chance to snag Fields.

4) Be objective fans instead of homers. Remove the word "tank" and just admit we "suck". You don't have to tank, or lose on purpose, to secure yourself a top pick in the draft. Sometimes these magical teams come around and they are just bad. That is us. We are one of the lucky few who are in for a rough year before it even starts. 

A) We have one of the worst defenses in the NFL and we bled talent on that side of the ball this year including having our hall of fame MLB retire. Our top corner left to become a Giant, McCoy is gone from the defensive line, Reid was cut and none of the talent we brought in is objectively on the same level as what was removed. And again, this was on the worst run defense and one of the worst whole defenses in the NFL. This season won't be pretty from a defensive side of the ball. 

B) We have to play two games this year against Matt Ryan+ Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley with a defense better than ours. We play Drew Brees + Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara with a defense than is better than ours. We play Tampa Bay twice this year and they just removed a QB who threw 30 interceptions and replaced him with Tom Brady. While Brady isn't going to throw for 5k yards he still have two #1 WRs to throw to in Tampa and won't turn the ball over 30 times. All three of these teams should beat ours twice. That is 6 losses right there. 

C) We got better on offense, kind of. We no longer have Greg as an option. DJ Moore blossomed into a stud and Curtis Samuel is who he is... a guy who has the tools to turn heads but he isn't going to break out in a big way for a whole year. Robby Anderson was a good pickup. CMC is the best back in the NFL. So we lose a known TE and gain a known WR. I will take it. Teddy should be better than Kyle Allen so that is a plus. But the objective truth around Teddy is that he has 34 starts in the NFL and 38 passing touchdowns. He has twice made it to 14 touchdown passes in a season but never made it to 15. Nobody should be expecting us to be in air raid and think Teddy is tossing this thing 30 times a game. He is a game manager. 

D) On offensive line we lost talent. That talent was injury prone but they had talent. We then traded one of our more consistent offensive lineman for a left tackle. I like this move and I think it will work out but if I am being objective its hard to look at this as a plus and not a lateral move. If healthy, Okung is a good lineman. Trai Turner was too. But Trai is also younger. But protective the blindside is important so its kind of a wash. 

Outside of the 6 games we are going to lose to divisional opponents who else do we play?

Bears, Lions, Packers and Vikings. The only chance at a winnable game here is Lions. Maybe the Bears?

Cardinals, Redskins, Chargers, Chiefs.Maybe we could beat the Redskins? The others offense will be too good against us. 

Broncos and Raiders. Broncos will beat us but maybe the Raiders? 

Like we can't believably enter the season at any week and believe we are going to be the favorite to win a game. Its a toss up game or likely loss. 

So again, we don't need to force a tank when its likely going to be a poor season anyway. 

 

All of this, plus we changed out our entire coaching staff in the single hardest year to do that in the history of the league. Everyone angry about an upcoming 'mediocre' season is being WAY too optimistic.