The QB mirage of 2020

[LinvilleGorge]

6 minutes ago, t96 said:

 

 

That definitely hasn't been true this year. May have more to do with rule changes and the way they're calling games (less offensive holding penalties) but offense has been way ahead of defense in the NFL this year.

Offensive holding has become like traveling in the NBA. It has to be comically blatant to get called and even then it's still a 50/50 shot.

[Waldo]

It's going to be a difficult draft to evaluate players for sure. I wonder if they will expand the rules for the Covid angle for the draft like they did for the IR and PS rules. I sure hope so.

[Ricky Spanish]

1 hour ago, LinvilleGorge said:

I don't buy it. Generally in TC and other times when there has been a lack of preparation, defenses will be ahead of offenses for the most part.

This is not true. The OPPOSITE is actually true. I did a deep dive on this  at the beginning of the season:

 

[GoobyPls]

That’s why you look at film not the box core.

[raz]

3 hours ago, mrcompletely11 said:

off topic but everything I saw/read on the peripheral everyone pretty much laughed at the Hornets pick and said it was just an obvious attempt at trying to sell tickets.   Ball is street ball garbage

no, this is the best one of the brothers.  he's a player for sure.  there were no slam dunk consensus agreed upon franchise changers in last nights draft.  not saying there won't be, but all the players had ? marks.   lamelo can genuinely ball

[raz]

3 hours ago, stbugs said:

What was wrong for the NBA evaluation? I don’t know much about non-US basketball but for the college players, they played an entire regular season with no changes. Only the “playoff” part was impacted. In college football, we have teams basically playing in conference only outside of maybe 3 “playoff” games. Teams like Wisconsin and PAC-12 have barely played so what happens if they get shut down. How about guys like Chase and Parsons who didn’t play at all? How do you evaluate Trey Lance’s last year. The NBA’s draft was later than usual but the prospects’ last seasons were pretty much intact to review. Maybe the visits were impacted but football is going to have a much harder time evaluating. NBA scouts got to see 90% of the college season in person and talk to coaches and players. Are pro scouts for the NFL even going to college games right now?

there was nothing wrong.  missing the ncaa tournament was huge for evaluation, and the teams were only allowed to bring in 10 prospects for in person workouts and interviews.   also, those are great points about evaluation of the college football players.  i really hadn't considered that this morning when i posted

[JawnyBlaze]

Who the fug cares about completion percentage. It’s one of the most misleading and pointless stats out there. Watching the videos that are available on YouTube, he makes the right throws, he throws a good ball, and he reads the field. That’s what I want to see out of my QB. I’d take Wilson in a heartbeat at this point. 

[kungfoodude]

4 hours ago, Jeremy Igo said:

I saw a comment yesterday that I found interesting. How much stock do you put in the performances of college QBs this year? A year in which Covid has diminished greatly the ability of teams to prepare and train their defenses.

 

Take Zach Wilson for example. Look at his completion percentage...

 

So he regressed in 2019 but all of a sudden in 2020 be takes a 13 point jump in completion percentage? How much does the Covid cloud have to do with that?

That is going to be really tough to say. You also lost a lot of cupcake games, so teams are actually playing much tougher schedules in some cases.

I don't think I would discount an entire season based on that. At best, 4-5 games. If a player has a monster year, I don't think that should be discounted because of COVID.

[kungfoodude]

4 hours ago, Jeremy Igo said:

I saw a comment yesterday that I found interesting. How much stock do you put in the performances of college QBs this year? A year in which Covid has diminished greatly the ability of teams to prepare and train their defenses.

 

Take Zach Wilson for example. Look at his completion percentage...

 

So he regressed in 2019 but all of a sudden in 2020 be takes a 13 point jump in completion percentage? How much does the Covid cloud have to do with that?

That is going to be really tough to say. You also lost a lot of cupcake games, so teams are actually playing much tougher schedules in some cases.

I don't think I would discount an entire season based on that. At best, 4-5 games. If a player has a monster year, I don't think that should be discounted because of COVID.

[kungfoodude]

11 minutes ago, JawnyBlaze said:

Who the fug cares about completion percentage. It’s one of the most misleading and pointless stats out there. Watching the videos that are available on YouTube, he makes the right throws, he throws a good ball, and he reads the field. That’s what I want to see out of my QB. I’d take Wilson in a heartbeat at this point. 

Completion percentage is actually something that is pretty important for a QB. That is one of the few stats that is a pretty decent predictor of NFL success. 

IE, if you aren't an accurate passer in college, it is highly unlikely that will improve in the NFL. Many examples of this among first round QB busts.

[jb2288]

I haven't watched Wilson play, but is he more like Burrow or Mahomes? Watching Burrow try to throw to the outside hash this past weekend was painful, dude just couldn't get it there. I feel good about a rookie learning under Brady for next year, so hope we draft someone who actually has all the physical tools. 

[TLGPanthersFan]

45 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

Completion percentage is actually something that is pretty important for a QB. That is one of the few stats that is a pretty decent predictor of NFL success. 

IE, if you aren't an accurate passer in college, it is highly unlikely that will improve in the NFL. Many examples of this among first round QB busts.

Super Bowl winning QB career completion percentage:

Drew Brees: 67.8

Kurt Warner: 65.5

Russell Wilson: 64.9

Aaron Rodgers: 64.7

Big Ben: 64.4

Tom Brady: 63.9

Joe Montana: 63.2

Tray Aikmen: 61.5

Completion is a pointless stat. Most franchise QBs have a completion percentage in the mid 60s. I think Zach Wilson will be okay  

 

 

 

 

 

[kungfoodude]

24 minutes ago, TLGPanthersFan said:

Super Bowl winning QB career completion percentage:

Drew Brees: 67.8

Kurt Warner: 65.5

Russell Wilson: 64.9

Aaron Rodgers: 64.7

Big Ben: 64.4

Tom Brady: 63.9

Joe Montana: 63.2

Tray Aikmen: 61.5

Completion is a pointless stat. Most franchise QBs have a completion percentage in the mid 60s. I think Zach Wilson will be okay  

Yeah, I am pretty sure you just didn't understand anything I said.

[TheCasillas]

29 minutes ago, TLGPanthersFan said:

Tray Aikmen: 61.5

Tray Aikmen was one of the greatest QBs to play for the Kowbois

Googled it, and it checks out.