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By MasterAwesome · Posted
I agree with you that AJ Brown and Mahomes were deserving of being nominated. I just find it odd that among these 6 nominees, Bryce is the guy you’re singling out as undeserving? Are you that impressed with Swift and Achane’s ~130 yards and 1 TD? It’s a lot easier to do a 1 to 1 statistical comparison between a RB and WR than it is to compare a QB to a WR. So it’s basically 130 yards and 1 TD (Swift/Achane) against 130 yards and 2 TDs (Brown). That’s way more clear and egregious than trying to argue a QB’s 200 yards and 3 TDs is worse than a WR’s 130 yards and 2 TDs. My vote would be swapping in AJ Brown for Swift, if you consider that Swift’s 7th round back-up had basically an equal stat line. And if you want to replace someone else on this list with Mahomes, may I nominate the opposing QB who he faced and outperformed? Dak wasn’t even the best QB in his own stadium that day. They were both very similar in yardage (if you include Mahomes’ 30 rush yards), but Mahomes had 4 TDs and 0 INTs to Dak’s 2 TDs and 1 INT. And you’ve talked a lot about your understanding of this award being largely statistics-based. But you have neglected two key stats here: the first being QB Rating, which I believe Bryce led the league in this week (someone fact check me). I know QB Rating is a bit different than a traditional metric that you can objectively evaluate on its own, but it’s arguably the most valuable singular stat since it encompasses all those other key objective metrics in quantifying a QB’s overall performance via a structured formula. And the other key stat which appears to be quite significant in their criteria when doling out nominations? WIN VS LOSS. You’ll notice the only nominee here that was on a losing team was Bijan Robinson who had almost 200 scrimmage yards and a TD. That also explains why guys like AJ Brown and Mahomes didn’t get nominated. I went back and revisited the nominees each week going back to Week 9 and you see roughly the same pattern each week: vast majority of nominees from winning teams, and the rare nominee from a losing team having a HUGE statistical performance. Examples being Bowers and London after their ~120 yard 3 TD games, Brissett after his 450 yard game where I think he broke some kind of NFL record for completion percentage, and Jameis Winston last week when he had 400 yards and 3 TDs including a 33-yard touchdown RECEPTION. In fact, those are the only nominees on losing teams over the last 5 weeks (5 total, averaging 1 per week). Bijan Robinson had arguably the most lackluster stat line of all the losers, with only 200 scrimmage yards and a TD. So yeah apparently it takes quite a monster game for a loser to get nominated and Brown/Mahomes apparently didn’t meet that threshold. -
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