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Panthers Have A Top 5 Draft Pick On Line This Week. What Needs To Happen

KatsAzz

By KatsAzz,
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KatsAzz Grand Master

KatsAzz

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https://www.charlotteobserver.com/sports/nfl/carolina-panthers/article257028667.html

 With one game remaining, the Panthers are locked into a top-6 pick in the 2022 NFL Draft. Carolina (5-11) is a 10-point underdog to Tampa Bay in a rematch from two weeks ago, where the Buccaneers won 32-6 at Bank of America Stadium.

The worst the Panthers can select is sixth, which is where they are currently slated. Even if Carolina upsets Tampa Bay and the Seahawks (6-10), Bears (6-10) and Washington (6-10) lose, tying all five teams with six victories and 11 losses, the Panthers’ .507 strength of schedule is the lowest, giving them the five-way tiebreak.

Carolina Panthers Tiebreakers in draft position are determined first by strength of schedule (SOS). The lower the SOS, the higher a team picks if their records are tied. After strength of schedule, tiebreakers are settled by division tiebreakers, conference tiebreakers, interconference tiebreakers and, if necessary, a coin toss.

Carolina cannot select third because the Texans (4-12) have a lower strength of schedule at .498. Detroit (2-13-1) and Jacksonville (2-14) will pick either first or second. Let’s explore the three realistic draft positions the Panthers can earn once Week 18 comes to a close and what needs to happen to cause each.

PANTHERS PICK 4TH IN THE DRAFT IF … This is the lowest the Panthers could pick. It would require a Panthers loss and wins by both the Giants and Jets, tying all three teams with 5-12 records. The Panthers’ .507 SOS is worse than the Giants (.537) and the Jets (.515). The Giants host Washington on Sunday. The Giants have lost five straight games under second-year head coach Joe Judge and lost 30-29 to Washington in Week 2. The Jets are playing at Buffalo in another Week 18 divisional game. The Bills blew out New York in Week 9, winning 45-17. Both the Jets and Giants are underdogs in their respective matchups. Washington is favored by 6.5 points over the Giants while the Jets are 17-point dogs. Find more sports news, plus coverage from Sports Illustrated. READ MORE

PANTHERS PICK 5TH IN THE DRAFT IF … Landing the fifth pick requires the Panthers to lose and just one of the New York teams to upset their Week 18 opponent.

PANTHERS PICK 6TH IN THE DRAFT IF … This is where the Panthers are slated to pick if the NFL season were still 17 weeks long. It’s most likely Carolina will pick sixth considering both the Jets and Giants are large underdogs. One thing Panthers’ fans can look forward to is if Carolina beats Tampa Bay, its draft position will not change. Coach Matt Rhule has a chance to snap the Panthers’ six-game losing streak while not hurting draft position like what happened in Week 16 last year when they beat a playoff-bound Washington team on the road.

Read more at: https://www.charlotteobserver.com/sports/nfl/carolina-panthers/article257028667.html#storylink=cpy

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t96 Grand Master

t96

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Screw the Bucs, let's beat their asses and send them down to the 4th seed and a 1 and done in the playoffs against the Cardinals. If we can't drop below 6 and would need some serious luck to move up to 5 or 4 then I'll take the win this week if we can possibly get it.

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micnificent28 Mentor

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3 minutes ago, t96 said:

Screw the Bucs, let's beat their asses and send them down to the 4th seed and a 1 and done in the playoffs against the Cardinals. If we can't drop below 6 and would need some serious luck to move up to 5 or 4 then I'll take the win this week if we can possibly get it.

How does that get us closer to our own super bowl???

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KatsAzz Grand Master

KatsAzz

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9 minutes ago, Catsfan69 said:

Please spell out what has to happen. I can't read whole articles while working.

The Panthers have a lock on # 6 position  but :PANTHERS PICK 5TH IN THE DRAFT IF … Landing the fifth pick requires the Panthers to lose and just one of the New York teams to upset their Week 18 opponent

PANTHERS PICK 4TH IN THE DRAFT IF … This is the lowest the Panthers could pick. It would require a Panthers loss and wins by both the Giants and Jets, tying all three teams with 5-12 records

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KatsAzz Grand Master

KatsAzz

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14 minutes ago, micnificent28 said:

Think you need atleast 4-5 to have a legit shot at Alabama LT.... that would be ideal.. anything else probably a trade down

I realize Neal,the Alabama offensive tackle, is rated high but almost all NFL Pro Scouts have him projected as a  playing Right Tackle in the NFL, the only offensive line postion we presently have covered.

Plus, i am not sure how long he could play injury free, considering all the stress his his vast amount of weight puts on his knees,etc..

My guess is the Panthers will try trading back to obtain more draft choices. There should be several good offensive tackles and a top center available to select  from, if the Panthers don't trade back to far.             

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MHS831 Grand Master

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The SOS can fluctuate--I wonder if Ellis factored that into his prognosis?  For example, the Jets SOS is .515 and the Panthers is .507--a difference of .008.  Is it not possible for the Jets' SOS to drop and the Panthers' SOS to increase during week 18?  The Jets could then win and the Panthers then lose and the Jets would not drop below the Panthers. 

I guess I am not sure how much these SOS numbers can fluctuate during the final week of the season.

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BrianS Veteran

BrianS

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We aren't trading back.  There are too many factors working against us.

First is the draft itself.  This isn't a "trade up" draft.  There just aren't a huge number of prospects worthy of trading up for.  Honestly, who?  The QB class is nothing like last year, and once you get past QB, are you really going to trade up for anyone more than a spot or three?

Second is Fitts himself.  He's on record as valuing picks in the top 15 far more than later.  Basically he believes that the true impact players are picked in those first 15ish spots.  If you want him to trade out of there, you're going to have to give him MORE than just straight value.

I'm sure there are scenarios where we'd trade back, the problem is that they aren't realistic.  Good teams are picking further back, but they didn't get good by making bad draft day decisions.  Bad teams are picking where we are already.

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