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Sam Howell

LinvilleGorge

By LinvilleGorge,
in Carolina Panthers

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Icege Grand Master

Icege

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, AU-panther said:

what does ay/a stand for?

either way in their last year.

Herbert YA 8.1, Pickett 8.7

Herbert AY/A 9.0, Pickett 9.7

Back to hand size, show me one study that shoes it makes a difference in fumbles.

W/Ls are a team stat, can be very misleading with the disparity among teams, and his pre 2021 stats aren't as good, everybody knows that.  Then you take his stat line from some of his worst 10 games of his entire career.  Its clear you going into this with an agenda and cherry picking stats to fit it.

Try to isolate his play.  How is accuracy at various levels of the field relative to the other prospects, and past prospects.  How is his play under pressure, relative to other prospects?  Those answers, paint a different story.

I'm not 100% sold him, and I don't know if I would spend a top 10 pick on him, but his last year has some good tape.  

 

 

 

AY/A = Air Yards / Average

Y/A = Yards / Average

AY/A is basically the average distance their passes travel through the air. If a player has a very high Y/A vs. a very low AY/A then they are likely benefitting from playmaker more than actually being the playmaker themselves.

There is a whole thread where Pickett's hand size was discussed. Not at the desktop atm, otherwise I'd link it for you to save you the time searching.

I didn't take his stat line from his 10 worst games. I took his stat line from the 10 games he played in college where his opponents were ranked not just when they played but at the end of the year itself. That's isolating his games against top opponents, not cherry picking. This has been a calm exchange so far, so let's keep it that way rather than tossing accusations instead of addressing the argument. 

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Icege Grand Master

Icege

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Posted
6 minutes ago, Shocker said:

I seriously considered putting something like this together but thank you for doing this analysis.  I haven’t done something similar for Howell but I would bet he was remarkably consistent regardless of comp.  Not amazing mind you but consistent 

I like the idea of comparing players against thier 5 toughest opponents.  Many of these guys feast on lower comp opponents which inflates their stats.

Again…thanks 

I've almost finished my Pickett evaluation and am working on Howell next followed by Willis, Ridder, Corral, and Strong in that order.

Part of me really wants to check Brock Purdy out as well.

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Shocker Grand Master

Shocker

Posted
Posted (edited)

Will say this…folks in here looking for a Herbert or Lawrence for that matter won’t find it physically.  That guy doesn’t exist in this draft.  I did mention on this board that if you liked Lawrence as a prospect you should like Herbert as well.  Herbert came out the prior year and his quiet demeanor scared off some scouts but he had a eerily similar physical make up to Lawrence.

Edited by Shocker
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Icege Grand Master

Icege

Posted
Posted (edited)

@ShockerGot back to the desktop and was curious about Howell's numbers vs. top-25 opponents

He's 5-8 vs. top-25 opponents, 2-6 vs. those same opponents that were still ranked at the end of the season (same as Pickett).

In those 2-6 games, he's 140/220 (63.6%) for 1812 yards, 12 TDs, 4 INTs, 8.3 Y/A, 109 rushing attempts for 358 yards (3.3avg), 2 rushing TDs, and 1 fumble.

With the same record under the same parameters, Sam Howell has a slightly higher completion percentage (63.6v50), more passing yards (1923v1368), triple the passing TDs (12v4), half the INTs (4v8), higher Y/A (+2.8), almost five times the rushing yards (and average rushing yards) (358v85), the same amount of TDs (2), and a fourth of the fumbles (1v4).

Even if you add those two 2021 games for Pickett, , Howell still has the better completion percentage, more passing TDs (12v8), half the INTs (4v8), higher Y/A (+2.3), almost triple the rushing yards (and rushing average) (358v120), and a fifth of the fumbles (1v5).

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Icege Grand Master

Icege

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Posted

Another comparison: both played a ranked Wake Forest in 2021.

Pickett: 20/33 (60.6%) for 253yds, 2 TDs, 7.7 Y/A, 6 rushing attempts for 20yds (3.3avg), 1 rushing TD, 1 fumble
Howell: 16/26 (61.5%) for 216yds, 1 TD, 8.3 Y/A, 21 rushing attempts for 104yds (5.0avg), 2 rushing TDs, 0 fumbles

Howell had the higher completion percentage, more total yards, equal total touchdowns, better rushing average, higher Y/A, and less fumbles.

I haven't gotten to watch as many of Howell's games as I have Pickett (1v4), but I'm already leaning towards Howell being the better prospect. Not saying that either are worth #6, franchise guys, or even sure fire busts. Just my own personal ranking(s) explained.

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Shocker Grand Master

Shocker

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1 hour ago, Icege said:

Another comparison: both played a ranked Wake Forest in 2021.

Pickett: 20/33 (60.6%) for 253yds, 2 TDs, 7.7 Y/A, 6 rushing attempts for 20yds (3.3avg), 1 rushing TD, 1 fumble
Howell: 16/26 (61.5%) for 216yds, 1 TD, 8.3 Y/A, 21 rushing attempts for 104yds (5.0avg), 2 rushing TDs, 0 fumbles

Howell had the higher completion percentage, more total yards, equal total touchdowns, better rushing average, higher Y/A, and less fumbles.

I haven't gotten to watch as many of Howell's games as I have Pickett (1v4), but I'm already leaning towards Howell being the better prospect. Not saying that either are worth #6, franchise guys, or even sure fire busts. Just my own personal ranking(s) explained.

Outstanding work @Icege

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CPantherKing Grand Master

CPantherKing

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Icege said:

Another comparison: both played a ranked Wake Forest in 2021.

Pickett: 20/33 (60.6%) for 253yds, 2 TDs, 7.7 Y/A, 6 rushing attempts for 20yds (3.3avg), 1 rushing TD, 1 fumble
Howell: 16/26 (61.5%) for 216yds, 1 TD, 8.3 Y/A, 21 rushing attempts for 104yds (5.0avg), 2 rushing TDs, 0 fumbles

Howell had the higher completion percentage, more total yards, equal total touchdowns, better rushing average, higher Y/A, and less fumbles.

I haven't gotten to watch as many of Howell's games as I have Pickett (1v4), but I'm already leaning towards Howell being the better prospect. Not saying that either are worth #6, franchise guys, or even sure fire busts. Just my own personal ranking(s) explained.

Pickett will be a bust. Howell is an NFL 2 or 3. Definitely better than PJ Walker. Not better than Sam Darnold. Darnold has a long career as a #2 in the NFL if he wants that.

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