It’s time to do this the right way

[BrianS]

Looking at QB success under the lens of SB wins, particularly in the last 20 years, is not a very good metric. 

Tom Brady has been in the league, and even when he isn't winning the SB he is affecting your metrics.  We have been watching a level of success that will never be seen again.  His mere presence in the league has skewed success stats for many players.  How many SB's would Payton Manning have won minus Tom Brady?

It's tough, but you need to find other measures for QB's over the last 23 years.

[WUnderhill]

1 hour ago, Navy_football said:

So to clarify... a team shouldn't tank to draft a rookie superstar QB. That's what we're discussing. 

Out of that group of superstars, only the Mannings, Stafford and Mahomes were top 10 picks. Mahomes was the 10th pick in his draft. Everyone else went to pretty good situations (including Mahomes actually) before winning a superbowl. Stafford had to go to another team (stacked) to finally win his, just as Brees. Eli won his primarily off of defense, and a big play or two when it counted. But he was no superstar QB lighting up the league. I will give you Peyton with the one in Indy. Definitely not the one "that shall not be mentioned" on a different team though. His team won in spite of him. If we're being technical, the QB with the most SB wins was the lowest drafted of the group - 6th rounder out of Michigan. 

QBs are given way too much credit for wins and loses. It takes a team effort to win a super bowl. You could put a good-not-great QB on a really good team, and you'd get Eli Manning level of success. 

That’s 3x more Super Bowl winning QBs from the #1 overall selection than any other individual selection. It’s just silly to argue that picking first doesn’t matter. Saying that other things matter too does not diminish the value of the #1 pick. The #1 pick is the only place the team controls it’s own destiny. Every other pick you are either hoping some other team messed up their evaluation, you messed up your evaluation, both, or just to get extra lucky.

[panthers55]

20 hours ago, WUnderhill said:

Sounds like you guys have extremely realistic opinions of Mccaffrey’s value. I’d take a first while not taking on any salary, but thought I would present an actual realistic scenario. I’d love to hear your Madden trade proposals.

If you can't get better than a third you keep him. If you switch him to the slot and put Foreman running between the tackles you have a decent running game and McCaffrey becomes your number 1 receiver.  You preserve him and use him to his best ability. But trading him and eating a ton of dead cap is a stupid idea. There won't be a third rounder with half his talent in this draft.

[trueblade]

17 hours ago, jackson113 said:

Until we're out of playoff contention we try to win. Period. Y'all get stuck on this draft stuff too much. These players need to learn to win and get over the Hump. Period. 

Wilks isn't going to evacuate players for another coach. You're in fantasy land buddy.

To even get to 9-8, we'd need to go 8-4 over the last twelve. We're looking at playing Rams, Bucs, Bengals, and Ravens [over the next six weeks] with our 3rd string QB.

We're out of playoff contention. 

Edited October 12, 2022 by trueblade

[PNW_PantherMan]

Just now, panthers55 said:

If you can't get better than a third you keep him. If you switch him to the slot and put Foreman running between the tackles you have a decent running game and McCaffrey becomes your number 1 receiver.  You preserve him and use him to his best ability. But trading him and eating a ton of dead cap is a stupid idea. There won't be a third rounder with half his talent in this draft.

I agree, and for me I'm hesitant to trade him for a 2nd.  What are we going to do with that, draft another YGM or TMJ or trade for another Sam Darnold?  I'd rather just have CMC.

[saX man]

The biggest thing in this process is getting a consultant working in conjunction with Fitterer & Morgan (If they stay) to find the next head coach.

They need to collaboratively lay out a vision, identify their keepers from this current squad, and build a new roadmap for the future.

This new HC would then work with them to identify which of Stroud/Young/etc. we want to lead the way.  You make that move come next draft, and reset this.  And maybe they come swinging out the gate like a few recent rookie HCs with young QBs.  

The HC and QB are what we need to get right and it's about laying the groundwork appropriately for both of those things to happen.

 

[poundaway]

2 minutes ago, trueblade said:

To even get to 9-8, we'd need to go 8-4 over the last twelve. We're looking at playing Rams, Bucs, Bengals, and Ravens [over the next six weeks] with our 3rd string QB.

We're out of playoff contention. 

I think that's why Tepper pulled the plug.  If Baker is out 4-6 weeks, he is not going to ever get acclimated to what McAdoo is trying to do.  Whatever hope he had was gone at that point.  The season was already over.

[mrcompletely11]

2 hours ago, Navy_football said:

So to clarify... a team shouldn't tank to draft a rookie superstar QB. That's what we're discussing. 

 

we are not trying to tank per se, we are tanking on general principle.  This team sucks

[Navy_football]

5 hours ago, WUnderhill said:

That’s 3x more Super Bowl winning QBs from the #1 overall selection than any other individual selection. It’s just silly to argue that picking first doesn’t matter. Saying that other things matter too does not diminish the value of the #1 pick. The #1 pick is the only place the team controls it’s own destiny. Every other pick you are either hoping some other team messed up their evaluation, you messed up your evaluation, both, or just to get extra lucky.

So 3 of the last 20 Super Bowls were won by the first QBs picked in their draft class. Only counting winning with the team that picked them. Otherwise they're just free agent QBs. And the Giants didn't technically have the first pick until Eli refused to play for San Diego, so they traded that pick to NY to avoid a fiasco with Eli. Eli should have gone to SD, where he likely never wins a super bowl. That's 15% with Eli. It sounds more like you'd have to be lucky to win with the first QB selected than not. 

Look, I'm not diminishing the first pick in the draft. But if we have to go back to 2004 and 1998 to find the last QBs that were the first QBs off the board and won a super bowl with the team that drafted them, then I think it's a reach to say that's the right move. 

Removing Brady from the equation, the average draft position of Super Bowl winning QBs is 28. Barely even in the first round. It's 62 if you include Brady. That's dang near 3rd round! Build your team inside out. O-line, D-line, then QB and skills positions. More first-picked QBs have failed/bust by going to bad teams than have actually become successful in the NFL, let alone won Super Bowls. 

[Navy_football]

4 hours ago, mrcompletely11 said:

we are not trying to tank per se, we are tanking on general principle.  This team sucks

Can't argue that. Won't even try. 

[trueblade]

1st round QBs since 2006. The number indicates what pick they were.

• 2022: 20 Picket
• 2021: 1 Trevor, 2 Wilson, 3 Lance, 11 Fields, 15 Jones
• 2020: 1 Burrow, 5 Tua, 6 Herbert, 26 Love
• 2019: 1 Kyler, 6 D Jones, 15 Haskins
• 2018: 1 Baker, 3 Darnold, 7 Allen, 10 Rosen, 32 Lamar
• 2017: 2 Trubisky, 10 Mahomes, 12 Watson
• 2016: 1 Goff, 2 Wentz, 26 Lynch
• 2015: 1 Jameis, 2 Mariota, 
• 2014: 3 Bortles, 22 Manziel, 32 Bridgewater
• 2013: 16  EJ Manuel
• 2012: 1 Luck, 2 RGIII, 8 Tannehill, 22 Weeden
• 2011: 1 Cam, 8 Locker, 10 Gabbert, 12 Ponder
• 2010: 1 Bradford, 25 The Golden Calf of Bristol
• 2009: 1 Stafford, 5 Mark Sanchez, 17 Josh Freeman,
• 2008: 1 Ryan, 18 Flacco
• 2007: 1 JaMarcus, 22 Quinn
• 2006: 3 Young, 10 Leinart, 11 Cutler

The #1 overall picks are kind of a mixed bag (JaMarcus, Ryan, Stafford, Bradford, Cam, Luck, Jameis, Goff, Baker, Kyler, Burrow, Trevor)

Hit rate for all 1st round QBs isn't great, but once you get out of the first round, the hit rate is downright abysmal.

[WUnderhill]

20 minutes ago, Navy_football said:

So 3 of the last 20 Super Bowls were won by the first QBs picked in their draft class. Only counting winning with the team that picked them. Otherwise they're just free agent QBs. And the Giants didn't technically have the first pick until Eli refused to play for San Diego, so they traded that pick to NY to avoid a fiasco with Eli. Eli should have gone to SD, where he likely never wins a super bowl. That's 15% with Eli. It sounds more like you'd have to be lucky to win with the first QB selected than not. 

Look, I'm not diminishing the first pick in the draft. But if we have to go back to 2004 and 1998 to find the last QBs that were the first QBs off the board and won a super bowl with the team that drafted them, then I think it's a reach to say that's the right move. 

Removing Brady from the equation, the average draft position of Super Bowl winning QBs is 28. Barely even in the first round. It's 62 if you include Brady. That's dang near 3rd round! Build your team inside out. O-line, D-line, then QB and skills positions. More first-picked QBs have failed/bust by going to bad teams than have actually become successful in the NFL, let alone won Super Bowls. 

You guys keep making up all this crap every time I come back here. Whether it’s “superstars” or top 10 or something, now they have to be playing for their original team. At what point do you stop moving the goal posts? It’s not the #1 pick vs the field, it’s the #1 pick vs each other individual pick. We don’t have the option to select every QB in the draft class and see which one works, we’re talking about ONE selection. So what is it, are you saying the #8 pick is the best pick to draft a QB? Is the second QB drafted in a class statistically better than the first most of the time? We’re talking about ONE pick, just one.

Btw, one of my original points was to build the offensive line for now and the future.

[Navy_football]

9 minutes ago, WUnderhill said:

You guys keep making up all this crap every time I come back here. Whether it’s “superstars” or top 10 or something, now they have to be playing for their original team. At what point do you stop moving the goal posts? It’s not the #1 pick vs the field, it’s the #1 pick vs each other individual pick. We don’t have the option to select every QB in the draft class and see which one works, we’re talking about ONE selection. So what is it, are you saying the #8 pick is the best pick to draft a QB? Is the second QB drafted in a class statistically better than the first most of the time? We’re talking about ONE pick, just one.

Btw, one of my original points was to build the offensive line for now and the future.

My man, I didn't even respond to you... my only point is you don't tank for a #1 QB. Build your team and culture first. That #1 QB pick crap is over freaking rated. You don't bring a 22 year old into a crap show and expect him to be your savior. I showed how it doesn't make your TEAM better. And yes, it matters if the QB won with the team that picked him vs some other team. Why in the He11 would we pick a SB winning QB for somebody else and claim that as a win? It actually shows that a strong TEAM brought in a free agent QB (that happened to be a top pick) and won a SB. If you build a good TEAM, then you can pick a QB at an average of 28 and still win a super bowl. It ain't that hard to understand unless you refuse to accept facts. 

 

[DaveThePanther2008]

On 10/11/2022 at 9:32 PM, WUnderhill said:

Going back to 2002, so 20 yrs. (btw I just chose 20 years randomly as a round number and didn’t want to go back too far to before the rule changes geared towards QBs), I count 2-4 Super Bowls won by non-franchise QBs (depending how you want to call it), that’s 2002-3 Bucs and 2017-18 Eagles for sure, and then depending on how you want to look at it Joe Flacco in 2012-13 and Peyton Manning in 2015-16. The superstar QBs win all the others: the Mannings, Big Ben, Brady, Rodgers, Stafford, Brees, Mahomes. It’s pretty bad odds on winning without the superstar QB. 

Point made, now tell me who is a surefire HOF QB in the 2023 or 2024.  Each one of those names minus Stafford are headed to the HOF one day.  

You can't keep losing to get the top QB in the draft.  It's a crapshoot.  You have to do your homework and hopefully nail a good QB.  Outside of the Mannings and Stafford the QBs you listed weren't top 5 picks. 

A good head coach is going to sit down with the GM, like Payton did in New Orleans, and go the best route available for a QB.  While our next head coach may not hit a home run like New Orleans did with Brees.  The next head coach may find that alternative piece until a permanent solution can be found.  Carolina did a good job finding Delhomme.  He had a great run with us and outside of Cam's years probably the most exciting QB we've ever had.  Plus, he took us to the Super Bowl.