So which QB do we think will be available at #9?

[Jackie Lee]

2 hours ago, raleigh-panther said:

My feeling…never draft a QB who fails in big games and whose floor is close to his ceiling   The bigger the game, the more he shrinks   What’s the saying “when people show you who they are believe them…the first time’

IMHO this guy screams Blaine Gabbert to me. 
 

Good stat here for collapsing under pressure

 

[ForJimmy]

Just now, LinvilleGorge said:

I think a lot of folks haven't watched much of UF games. If you had you'd notice all the balls bouncing off receivers' hands.

It was hike the ball and AR buys as much time as he can while they try to get open and then they either drop it or run the wrong route.  They went pretty run heavy later because their WRs (who weren't great to begin with) were injured.  Their offense excelled when AR could run and make defenses account for his running, bringing them off the WRs.  They didn't let him run that much thought because he was banged up and according to @Varking they didn't have much behind AR...

Just check out the Utah game when the team was healthy and AR was able to play his style of offense.  He was uncontainable.... 

[LinvilleGorge]

7 minutes ago, Jackie Lee said:

Good stat here for collapsing under pressure

 

Got any figures for QBs of prior draft classes?

[ForJimmy]

6 minutes ago, Jackie Lee said:

Good stat here for collapsing under pressure

 

Interesting that Stroud is pretty close to Young and people are questioning Stroud under pressure and thinking Young excels under it....

[Jackie Lee]

5 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

Got any figures for QBs of prior draft classes?

I believe the bottom number on that chart is college rate and the left side/vertical is their NFL rate so far. 

[LinvilleGorge]

11 minutes ago, ForJimmy said:

 They didn't let him run that much thought because he was banged up and according to @Varking they didn't have much behind AR...

Like Sam Howell his first two seasons at UNC. Coaches specifically told him NOT to run because they didn't have a backup QB on the roster they trusted to put in the game. His third year, they had Maye and lost all their weapons so he basically had to start playing like The Golden Calf of Bristol in order to move the ball.

 

[Jackie Lee]

7 minutes ago, ForJimmy said:

Interesting that Stroud is pretty close to Young and people are questioning Stroud under pressure and thinking Young excels under it....

I think Stroud generally just got the ball out fast under pressure, Bryce scrambled a little more. Could be wrong but that's generally how it looked from casually catching a quarter or two of the games while at work  

[Soul Rebel]

4 hours ago, mrcompletely11 said:

4 million is a lot but damn that is a huge gamble to be taking

Being drafted top-7 >>>> $4M and risk getting injured in college. 

Sidebar - In the 2024 class, Williams and Maye are better than Stroud. 

[Varking]

1 hour ago, Stingray3030 said:

Did you read the quote I was replying to?  He described Fields as an elite runner who struggles with health and throwing the ball.  That is exactly who Richardson looks like at the moment....only he is even worse at the college level than Fields, so will be worse in the pros

It’s not even an accurate statement but college productivity also doesn’t mean much when it comes to the pros. Look at college duds like Josh Allen. 

[mrcompletely11]

1 hour ago, Jackie Lee said:

Good stat here for collapsing under pressure

 

I guess I am a moron but could you explain this to me please.  I can look at this data and take it both good and bad

[MasterAwesome]

50 minutes ago, mrcompletely11 said:

I guess I am a moron but could you explain this to me please.  I can look at this data and take it both good and bad

I think it's essentially a measure of a QB's ability to avoid taking sacks.  QBs that are high on the X axis had a high percentage of pressures leading to sacks in college (i.e. struggling to evade the pass rush).  QBs that are high on the Y axis had a high percentage of pressures leading to sacks in the NFL.  Based on this chart and Levis' 26.8% pressure-to-sack rate, he'd essentially be off the charts in a bad way.  It's also suggesting a pretty linear correlation from college to the pros, so if you struggled with taking sacks when pressured in college, then chances are you're going to struggle with it in the NFL.

It has nothing to do with each QB's o-line because the pre-condition for each data point is that the QB is already being pressured.  So once the pressure has already taken place, which QBs take sacks at a higher rate vs. able to elude the sack.

[MasterAwesome]

4 hours ago, LinvilleGorge said:

Beware drafting men who play amongst boys. Levis is as old as most second year NFL players.

Is the insinuation that 23-year-old college athletes are considerably physically superior to 20-22 year old college athletes?  I'd say Anthony Richardson, physically speaking, looks way more like a man amongst boys and he's only 21.

[LinvilleGorge]

21 minutes ago, MasterAwesome said:

Is the insinuation that 23-year-old college athletes are considerably physically superior to 20-22 year old college athletes?  I'd say Anthony Richardson, physically speaking, looks way more like a man amongst boys and he's only 21.

With QBs it's a lot more about the mental maturation than the physical maturity. Yeah, there's a BIG deference between a 23 year old mind and a 20 year old mind. Levis is just a couple of months younger than Justin Fields who just finished his second NFL season. He's only a year younger than Brian Burns who just finished up his 4th NFL season.

[Basbear]

AR is the only one.

0% at levis(yes), stroud, or young.

AR is at 15%.

If AR runs a 4.4, that gos to 0.3%.

 

fyi AR would be the CLEAR #1 in last years draft even with a crappy combine. 

Edited January 13, 2023 by Basbear