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Official Sound off like you got a pair Panthers Draft predictions thread

Zod

By Zod,
in Carolina Panthers

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MHS831 Grand Master

MHS831

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, MasterAwesome said:

If you're modeling the relationship between two variables (i.e. weight and injury risk, in this case), then it doesn't really matter if you're encountering a new data point that is the lowest on record (i.e. Bryce Young's size).  Your model doesn't suddenly crash and burn and become invalidated.  In the simplest terms, I'm sure once upon a time you've heard of the formula Y = mx + b.  Y is your dependent variable (injury risk), m is your slope (basically how impactful weight is for injury risk), x is your independent variable (weight), and b is a constant.  So if there is truly a statistically significant correlation between weight and injury risk, then even if Bryce Young was 40 pounds, you can still plug that into your model and determine the injury risk.  It's very basic statistical analysis/linear regression.

Also even if there was never a sub-200 pound QB in the history of the league, you can still determine if there's a correlation between size and injury risk.  Do 200 pound QBs get more injured than 220 pound QBs, who get more injured than 240 pound QBs?  

But he refers to "common sense".  Game, set, match.  Doesn't that trump all facts, data, and evidence?

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onmyown Grand Master

onmyown

Posted
Posted
On 4/20/2023 at 10:14 AM, Fright said:

We draft Young....

 

only to regret it by week 6 as Stroud starts to show signs of being elite while Young struggles. 

I’ll void the rookie year but if this is the story next year, and certainly the year after, the entire building needs to be cleaned out and Tepper needs to hire professionals asap.

Personally, I think they both do well. I am more curious about Richardson.

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pdub0702 Proficient

pdub0702

Posted
Posted

1st - Bryce Young (QB) - I think we risk the size concerns and bet on his talent of being the best QB in the draft.

2nd - Jack Campbell (LB) - Fills a need at linebacker, plus useful with our new D.C putting him in a position to succeed. 

3rd- Siaki Ika (DT) - added meat as we use him as our centerpiece NT. Being we are transferring to a 3-4, hopefully he falls and we land him late in the third. 

4th - Zack Kuntz (TE) - I think Hayden Hurst is gonna ball in our system. This pick is about his potential as a pass catching threat and late gem. He competes for TE2 in training camp. 

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    • LinvilleGorge
      2027: Sharing my thoughts on the cap without a lotta research

      By LinvilleGorge · Posted

      No. Physical tools alone aren't enough. There are plenty of examples of draft busts to support that. Aost all of them had the physical tools and that wasn't enough. But Bryce is a perfect example of the opposite. Absolutely elite intangibles aren't enough either. If you simply don't have the physical abilities all the football intelligence and work ethic in the world won't be enough to overcome it. Just look to the sidelines every Sunday. We call those people "coaches".
    • SmokinwithWilly
      2027: Sharing my thoughts on the cap without a lotta research

      By SmokinwithWilly · Posted

      As much as I despise Billy B, his philosophy on QBs is how I would approach things if I were a GM. You always keep looking for your next starter.  He has Bledsoe, who got injured and his backup ended up being the GOAT. Even while he had that going, he kept getting his next guy and developing them. When Brady got hurt, Cassel stepped in and went 11-5 and they missed the wild card by dumb luck. Who knows how far they would have gone if they had gotten in. Jimmy Gs career started in NE. There were others, but he always kept looking.  You can't be afraid to keep looking for your next starter, but it looks like we're afraid to look for more than a marginal one. If you're going to offer a $25m contract with incentives, that screams marginal QB. It also screams you're just a transition until we find our guy. After a 10 or 11 win season, he's not accepting that offer. And then you're in a Daniel Jones situation. Do you pay for a year of success and pray it wasn't a one year wonder?  To this point, Bryce has really produced nothing, yet for whatever reason, our FO has not even sniffed at the idea that we need a real QB room with real QBs. Dalton was never starter potential, Plummer was a joke. KP certainly isn't, neither is Grier.  Our approach to the QB room needs to be one of strength not fear. Bring in guys who can compete or who you think can compete. This is THE elite position, in an elite sport, paid premium salary, where production matters. Either you produce or you can lose your job. It's not mean, it's just the reality of the position.  And I'm really just tired of our candy ass approach to it. 
    • LinvilleGorge
      2027: Sharing my thoughts on the cap without a lotta research

      By LinvilleGorge · Posted

      If you plug Bryce onto the Pro Bowl roster you might have a chance to compete for a SB. If he's surrounded by top tier talent with a top tier defense on the other side, a field flipping punter, and a kicker good from 60+ you might have a chance. But that means you basically have to recreate Saban's Bama in the NFL and that's impossible... and Bryce couldn't win a championship in that environment either. What the Panthers didn't realize when they got so obsessed with his "PG mentality" was that what they were looking st was a "barely checks the box PG". The basketball equivalent of Bryce would be an undersized PG with marginal athleticism who can make the basic plays but adds nothing to the team in terms of elevating the overall team. Not a great shooter, not a great defender, not a great driver. Just a guy who can basically get you into the offense and be a matador on defense. Basically a placeholder while you look to upgrade the PG position. 
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