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If we trade down......

AU-panther

By AU-panther,
in Carolina Panthers

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AU-panther Mentor

AU-panther

Posted
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I don't expect us to trade down, if you trade down and then the QB that goes 1st turns out to be great you get second guessed, and those are the type of moves that get you fired.  If you stay put and take the person a lot of people think is great and if they don't turn out it just gets chalked up to bad luck.

A lot of people on here when talking about trading down, say with Houston, really want their extra 1st round pick this year (#12), but I'm thinking the really aggressive play is next year's 1st.

Both Indy and Houston were terrible this year, not just record but their point differential, I don't expect them to be much better, so there is a very good chance their 1st next year could be a top 2 pick.  Also, next year's QB class, especially at the top, looks to be really good, namely Williams and Maye.

Lets say Indy is open to trading up and giving us next year's 1st, would you prefer Young at 1 this year, or whatever QB falls to 4, maybe Stroud, Levis, or AR plus a really good chance at Williams or Maye next year?  You are almost giving yourself 2 chances to find a QB, and let's be honest, any QB you draft is a gamble.

The thought of AR this year and maybe Willimas or Maye next is pretty tempting, if AR looks like the real deal those picks are worth a fortune, if you are sure about AR you take a QB.  Talk about swinging for the fences.

Of course, this whole plan goes out the window if Indy wins 7 games and picks 6th.  Also I don't if any GM has the nerve to try something like this, I don't know if I would, could be a quick way to lose your job.

 

 

 

 

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ForJimmy Grand Master

ForJimmy

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If you have Stroud/AR/whoever you just drafted at 4 and they show anything on the field I don't think you turn around and draft another one the following year.  I think you auction the pick and get a huge return.  Again it's all a mute point because it's not happening.

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LinvilleGorge Grand Master

LinvilleGorge

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I think there's a good chance that we end up trading down... from #39. I don't see a wheeler and dealer like Fitts just sitting on his hands from #39 to #94. Wouldn't surprise me to see us do something to get an extra day three pick or too as well. There's just two sections of the draft when there's gonna be a lot of picks made without us. Fitts is gonna wanna be in the action.

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OceanPanther Mentor

OceanPanther

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The QB class of "next year"  is always talked up as being better than "this years" .   Many thought Levis would be the number 1 QB coming into this draft...  till he played another season in college.

A bird in the hand ( Bryce Young ) is better than 2 in the bush (  AR and maybe Williams or Maye )

As others have said.. nice conversation but it's not going to happen.

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Billy Goat Community Regular

Billy Goat

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1 minute ago, therealmjl said:

#1 is a lock

#39 Fitt will be trying his hardest to trade down into the late 40s.

I thought we'd try and trade down from 39 as well but after hearing Fitterer say the sweet spot of the draft is between 20 and 45 I'm not so sure anymore. I suppose it depends on how the board looks and how many of their 20-45 prospects are left.

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AU-panther Mentor

AU-panther

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1 minute ago, OceanPanther said:

The QB class of "next year"  is always talked up as being better than "this years" .   Many thought Levis would be the number 1 QB coming into this draft...  till he played another season in college.

A bird in the hand ( Bryce Young ) is better than 2 in the bush (  AR and maybe Williams or Maye )

As others have said.. nice conversation but it's not going to happen.

I agree the sure thing is the safest, but Levis was never considered a prospect on the level of Williams.  Williams is looking like a Lawrence or Luck type of prospect.

 

 

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LinvilleGorge Grand Master

LinvilleGorge

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17 minutes ago, AU-panther said:

I agree the sure thing is the safest, but Levis was never considered a prospect on the level of Williams.  Williams is looking like a Lawrence or Luck type of prospect.

 

 

When people start hyper focusing on Williams as an NFL prospect they're gonna realize he holds onto the ball foooreeeerever. I'm not sold on him translating to the NFL if he can't speed up his processing.

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AU-panther Mentor

AU-panther

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3 hours ago, LinvilleGorge said:

When people start hyper focusing on Williams as an NFL prospect they're gonna realize he holds onto the ball foooreeeerever. I'm not sold on him translating to the NFL if he can't speed up his processing.

What are your opinions about Maye?  I'm guessing you have watched him a little.

The points of my post was hypothetical at best, do people really feel like QB 1 this year has that much better of a chance of being good than some combination of two QBS over the next two years?

Would you take Young or AR and Maye? or even Levis and Maye? or Stroud and Williams?  Is Young really that much better of a prospect?

As fans and front offices tend to think in very binary terms about these QB prospects, we convince ourselves that whatever QB we like has a 100% chance of making it and whatever one we don't has a 0% chance of making it but history tells us we are usually wrong.

 

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Hoenheim Mentor

Hoenheim

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Im not sure that a team who traded up to 1 ever traded down after that 🤔  correct me if I'm wrong though 

We really won't know which qbs will work out for a good while. History consistently tells us is at least some of them will be busts or average ish

Sort of encouraging is the last few times there was a qb taken 1 overall who most had consistently agreed should go #1 overall they've been working out

I don't think Baker or Kyler had the consistent level of praise Bryce is getting right now but Burrow and Lawerence did iirc.

 

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