A look at the new and improved run defense

[Icege]

After setting franchise and league records with their incompet run defense last season, Dan Morgan and Brandt Tilis had their work cut out for them this offseason. Losing key contributors like Derrick Brown and Shaq Thompson at the beginning of the season did not help, and neither did the lack of a pass rush when teams did decide to throw the ball. So what did the FO decide to do? Throw bodies at the problem until it solves itself! Not just any bodies though... it's important to make sure that the ingredients they're cooking with this go around are better than the ones they had before. Looking at the lineup the team ended with and at the one they're projected to start with gives us fans more than a few reasons to be optimistic about the quality of play increasing.

Let's start with the front seven. The team's final starting DL was Robinson/Tuttle/Ray with Johnson getting most of the rotational snaps at EDGE. As we can see below... things were not good for our heroes. Shy Tuttle has been panned for his performance while A'Shawn Robinson was supposed to be the guy that rotated in on run downs up, but man oh man was LaBryan Ray atrocious. DJ Johnson is another player that's gotten a lot of flak on the Huddle, but in his third season he didn't exactly break out. DJ was always seen as being strong enough to play because of his ability to set the edge, but he has no tricks in his pass rush arsenal. Robinson and Johnson had the highest run defense grade of the bunch, tying for 100th in their respective position groups. There was nobody worse than LaBryan Ray at rushing the passer last season according to PFF... and Shy Tuttle seemed to almost make an effort to be as bad.

Compare this to what the Panthers are bringing in and... well... it takes a special kind of pessimist to still say with no uncertainty that the defense hasn't improved. The return of Derrick Brown (* because those are his 2023 grades when he played the full season) alone is a massive upgrade. I don't think I have to convince too many of y'all that his grades/rank compared to A'Shawn are night and day, but to be fair to A'Shawn he was supposed to be the guy that rotated in for run downs (not the starter). The Tuttle -> Brown III upgrade is massive: 198th in pass rush to 140th (and Brown III was often subbed out on passing downs!) and 205th to 27th in run defense. The Panthers went from a quick, undersized nose to a space eater that's going to occupy two blockers.

Much ado has been made about Tershawn Wharton's contract... but compare his performance to that of LaBryan Ray and the upgrade is undeniable: they're going from a guy that at BEST was 209th out of 219 other defensive linemen, and at worst he was 219th of 219. Tershawn Wharton, on the other hand, while posting a poor run defense grade, is a massive improvement when it comes to rushing the passer. The team went from the worst graded pass rushing DL to the 38th best. I'm not too worried about his run defense grade considering that Wharton and Robinson are going to likely be rotating with each other.

Finally, our boy DJ Johnson... oh DJ... The one thing you were alright at the Panthers went out and got somebody even better. DJ Johnson and Pat Jones II might have similar pass rush grades, but Jones II is really good at stopping the run. He's what they were hoping DJ Johnson could be by now. While Jones II doesn't have the most impressive numbers, he's got an important set of stats when compared to Johnson: 7 sacks, 13 hurries, 4 QB hits, 24 pressures. Meanwhile, DJ Johnson posted a stat line of 1 sack, 0 hurries, 0 QB hits, and 1 pressure. That. is. terrible.

So the team is clearly bringing in upgrades along the front seven to get the run defense back on track, but was that all? They also went out and picked up a new starting SS in Tre'von Moehrig to replace Jordan Fuller and back-up LB/ST guy Christian Rozeboom to fill the same role that Chandler Wooten play. So how did these guys' PFF grades/ranking compare to one another?

Rozeboom's pass rush grade was slightly lower than Wooten's, but that's it. That's the only signing that has a lower grade than the previous guy, but he's also got significantly better run defense and especially in coverage. Wooten was considered bottom three overall out of all LBs, so there isn't many other options worse than him. There's also been some grumblings about Moehrig's coverage grade, but it's important to also point out that it was better than Jordan Fuller's (who is now the starter in Atlanta). The one thing Fuller was somewhat successful at (run defense), Moehrig is elite at. Moehrig is also a much better pass rusher than Fuller is as well, and with the way Evero likes to disguise blitzes using safeties and linebackers that's going to help Jaycee and Mike J on the back end.

The entire DL has been upgraded with a top-10 DT returning to the lineup. The EDGE room got a little better and is likely going to see a draft pick added to their ranks as well. One of the safety positions (which Evero's defense depends heavily on) got a massive upgrade. Hell, they even went so far as to try and upgrade the ST guy that plays back-up LB. If this doesn't at least look like an average NFL defense then there isn't much left to defend Evero... but man is it really hard to believe it won't be better just looking at the stat sheets.

[Jon Snow]

I don't think anyone doesn't think it has been upgraded and should be better. We just do not know how much better it will actually be. 

[Icege]

7 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

I don't think anyone doesn't think it has been upgraded and should be better. We just do not know how much better it will actually be. 

Now you've got additional data to help you narrow that window of expectation!  

[Jon Snow]

1 minute ago, Icege said:

Now you've got additional data to help you narrow that window of expectation!  

The players Dan signed do not worry me as much as the coach that is using them.

[BrianS]

1 hour ago, Jon Snow said:

The players Dan signed do not worry me as much as the coach that is using them.

^^^  This right here.

[jfra78]

What feels different about this year is that Dan seems to be signing good football players and not just guys who fit Everos scheme.  It feels like Evero is gone no matter what after this season

[La Pantera]

I’ll give you ‘new’ but I’ll have to wait and see on the ‘improvement’ part. We’ve been pretty bad against the run for a long time now.

[MHS831]

It seems to me that we overpaid for Wharton and I am not sure that he is an every down DT at 280 lbs--I think he will probably move between NT and DE depending on the situation.  Brown III doubles the run stuffing ability at NT.  I realize that we brought Tuttle back--maybe he was out of position as an undersized NT--maybe he can play 3-5tech.

We need a DE (3-5 tech) and I am guessing that we could add a NT if we do not like Crumedly.

Hard to believe, but we could add up to 2 more DTs in addition to signing 2 and getting Brown back.

DE:  Brown, Robinson, (Wharton?)

NT:  Brown III, Wharton

[Jon Snow]

27 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

It seems to me that we overpaid for Wharton and I am not sure that he is an every down DT at 280 lbs--I think he will probably move between NT and DE depending on the situation.  Brown III doubles the run stuffing ability at NT.  I realize that we brought Tuttle back--maybe he was out of position as an undersized NT--maybe he can play 3-5tech.

We need a DE (3-5 tech) and I am guessing that we could add a NT if we do not like Crumedly.

Hard to believe, but we could add up to 2 more DTs in addition to signing 2 and getting Brown back.

DE:  Brown, Robinson, (Wharton?)

NT:  Brown III, Wharton

Wharton will rotate with Robinson on passing downs. He's a pass rusher. 

[MHS831]

58 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Wharton will rotate with Robinson on passing downs. He's a pass rusher. 

I was confused about that because his videos showed a NT alignment in KC and the Panther roster on the website had him as a DT, not a DE.  Are you speculating or have they said that?  I know that Brown III wanted more pass rushing opportunities, but heard nothing to confirm that the coaches agreed to that.

UPDATE:  I watched some more, and saw him at a 3t some too--so you are probably right.  Makes more sense.

Edited April 1 by MHS831

[Jon Snow]

5 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

I was confused about that because his videos showed a NT alignment in KC and the Panther roster on the website had him as a DT, not a DE.  Are you speculating or have they said that?  I know that Brown III wanted more pass rushing opportunities, but heard nothing to confirm that the coaches agreed to that.

UPDATE:  I watched some more, and saw him at a 3t some too--so you are probably right.  Makes more sense.

I deduced that from Morgan's breakdown of him. He mentioned Robinson as the runstopper and was only intended to play on rushing downs but due to injuries he had to play almost every down. Wharton will be the pass rusher to compliment Robinson.

[Basbear]

Ive been meaning to do a thread on the new editions DL vs OL, who would win in a 10 snap series??

 

Icky-------Lewis-------Cobrett/Mays------Hunt-------Motown

 

                --------------VS--------------

 

8th overall------Turk------Brown-------Dbrown-------Jones

 

 

You pick Mays or cobrett as the C. 

8th overall pick cannot be Carter, pick any other edge. 

 

Who wins best out of 10??

[PootieNunu]

4 minutes ago, Basbear said:

Ive been meaning to do a thread on the new editions DL vs OL, who would win in a 10 snap series??

 

Icky-------Lewis-------Cobrett/Mays------Hunt-------Motown

 

                --------------VS--------------

 

8th overall------Turk------Brown-------Dbrown-------Jones

 

 

You pick Mays or cobrett as the C. 

8th overall pick cannot be Carter, pick any other edge. 

 

Who wins best out of 10??

OL always going to win in a best out of 10 type thing, but it only takes one big Defensive play (sack,tfl) to put the offense behind the sticks and end up forcing a punt. 

[frankw]

On paper we look improved. And at this point it should be nearly impossible to be worse than we were last year anyways. But if there's an NFL franchise out there that understands more than most the ultimate insignificance of checking off boxes as improved before actually seeing the results on the field it's the Panthers.