Verge, why do you like Mykel Williams?

[kungfoodude]

32 minutes ago, Verge said:

I also posted my edges! Mykel was number two. 

I think looking at Georgia's sack numbers or win rates or whatever doesn't really tell the whole story. Their entire defense is loaded and different guys had different assignments. Is Mykel the most refined pass rusher in the world? Not really, no. Is he built like Myles Garrett and is he ridiculously effective in run defense.

I see people talking about low floor and that really isn't the reality here. No matter where you look at it, Mykel is effective as a defender. He is going to walk in and be a top tier run wrecker, and assuming he gets healthy it's not hard to envision him becoming a 10+ sack guy at the next level. There are games where he is just tossing around SEC lineman which doesn't happen very often. 

I would counter that guys like Carter who have popped in those same loaded defenses didn't need the qualifying statements about "being loaded."

It's easy to see the potential, however his theoretical ceiling is definitely lower than a guy like Shemar Stewart. But that isn't the whole story, is it?

Why do you think Williams will develop where other prospects will not? Especially when he has been largely a top tier edge setter and nothing close to that as a pass rusher in his college career? He has been VERY consistent in his three years in college. 

Edited April 5 by kungfoodude

[Khyber53]

15 hours ago, frankw said:

And the truth of the matter is we gave up 35 passing touchdowns and quite a bit of that was our 100 million dollar CB getting eaten up.

And the fact that our offense was three and outing it so often that opposing offenses had two or three more possessions per game than they usually would have. That eats up a bad defense even worse.

[Khyber53]

10 hours ago, Verge said:

I also posted my edges! Mykel was number two. 

I think looking at Georgia's sack numbers or win rates or whatever doesn't really tell the whole story. Their entire defense is loaded and different guys had different assignments. Is Mykel the most refined pass rusher in the world? Not really, no. Is he built like Myles Garrett and is he ridiculously effective in run defense.

I see people talking about low floor and that really isn't the reality here. No matter where you look at it, Mykel is effective as a defender. He is going to walk in and be a top tier run wrecker, and assuming he gets healthy it's not hard to envision him becoming a 10+ sack guy at the next level. There are games where he is just tossing around SEC lineman which doesn't happen very often. 

I was kinda leaning in your direction on this one until I saw the comment "assuming he gets healthy." And that put the stops on this for me. 

We don't have the time for someone to get healthy. Not right now. And our coach and GM can't have the patience for that at this time. Their seats are still just Tepper stable.

 

[MHS831]

10 hours ago, kungfoodude said:

Why do you think Williams will develop where other prospects will not? Especially when he has been largely a top tier edge setter and nothing close to that as a pass rusher in his college career? He has been VERY consistent in his three years in college. 

This is, in my view, how the teams "overthink" it.  First, they make comparisons to someone based on measurements and timed workouts.  Myles Garrett in this case, wherein if someone had put Williams beside the #1 overall draft pick in 2000, Courtney Brown out of Penn State, both 6'5", both around 260, etc. one might be equally impressed.    I think it might hurt his stock.   Brown stayed injured, playing in 61 games over 6 seasons in the NFL and totaled 19 sacks. 

Beware of any comparison between a prospect and a known commodity.  That is cherry picking and it gives you a false image of the actual player.  Compare Williams' accomplishments in college to Myles Garrett--very different.  Even by comparing him to Courtney Brown, Williams falls embarrassingly short of his accomplishments.  This is not to say that anyone is right or wrong--nobody knows for sure at this point, but it is to say no two players, no two situations, and no two coaching staffs are alike.  All this to support your point--who is to say that he will reach his potential and exceed his actual performance?   To me, it seems that success in college is the best predictor of success in the NFL, but rarely does someone improve their degree of success in the NFL from college.  There could be variables associated with our measuring sticks--such as sacks--that were not part of his responsibilities in college, but in this case, we are acknowledging run stopping abilities and assuming pass rushing abilities.  If he was not often rushing the passer in college, it seems he would be behind in the technical and mechanical aspects of rushing the passer, making him developmental.  Do we want "developmental" at #8?  Not saying anyone is right or anyone is wrong, just questioning the logic applied when reaching conclusions.

 

Edited April 5 by MHS831

[MHS831]

25 minutes ago, Khyber53 said:

And the fact that our offense was three and outing it so often that opposing offenses had two or three more possessions per game than they usually would have. That eats up a bad defense even worse.

And now that the offense is better (should be with a WR addition or two) and the defense can stop the run (on paper for now), teams will be forced to throw it more.  If our personnel is geared towards stopping the run as a priority, then the obvious reaction will be that we are forcing the pass.  Without addressing pressure from the edge (I think we have from the DL), are we forcing the offense to expose another weakness?  Can our LBs cover?  Can our CBs stay healthy and reduce penalties?  Do we have a free safety?  How good is our nickel? 

I think offense is easier to rebuild because you can control the action when you design plays.  Defenses have to react to the play, so it is harder.

[MHS831]

I would also add that, aside from drafting what may be a raw, developmental player, he is 20.  He had an injury-plagued year, and was second-team all SEC.  He is opting to come out when he could have stayed and improved his status and refined his technique.  So he is developmental.

Next, he sure fits the profile for a 4-3 DE and not a 3-4 Edge.  So will we be drafting a developmental 20-year old and playing him out of position?

And the comparisons to Myles Garrett: Garrett ran a 4.65 at his Tex AM pro day.  Mykel ran a 4.75 at his pro day.

 

Edited April 5 by MHS831

[TD alt]

What you guys don't realize is that we have every reason to be deploying smokescreens, while also keeping our top pick close to the vest after what Xavier Legette did last year. 

I'm not believing that we're taking Williams at eight for a minute.

[MHS831]

10 minutes ago, TD alt said:

What you guys don't realize is that we have every reason to be deploying smokescreens, while also keeping our top pick close to the vest after what Xavier Legette did last year. 

I'm not believing that we're taking Williams at eight for a minute.

I hope you are right--while I see his potential, I do not see the value on film--my untrained eye.  

[Lurk21]

Yeah Williams isn't horrible  but I feel if you replaced him with some of the other 2nd round prospects at Georgia, the production would've been the same. I dont see much a difference  in getting him at 8 vs the other prospects later. 

[frankw]

1 hour ago, Khyber53 said:

And the fact that our offense was three and outing it so often that opposing offenses had two or three more possessions per game than they usually would have. That eats up a bad defense even worse.

I obviously agree Bryce Young and Dave Canales need to make huge strides this upcoming season. Especially given the resources we've tied to the offense and hiring an offensive minded head coach. That goes without saying.

As far as the defense goes beyond the top the bottom blowout losses we experienced even in the closer games there were guys across the defense getting picked on regularly. That's all over the game film our upcoming opponents this year will be prepared for. There's a lot of people with something to prove on both sides of the ball.

[Martin]

13 hours ago, Verge said:

I also posted my edges! Mykel was number two. 

I think looking at Georgia's sack numbers or win rates or whatever doesn't really tell the whole story. Their entire defense is loaded and different guys had different assignments. Is Mykel the most refined pass rusher in the world? Not really, no. Is he built like Myles Garrett and is he ridiculously effective in run defense.

I see people talking about low floor and that really isn't the reality here. No matter where you look at it, Mykel is effective as a defender. He is going to walk in and be a top tier run wrecker, and assuming he gets healthy it's not hard to envision him becoming a 10+ sack guy at the next level. There are games where he is just tossing around SEC lineman which doesn't happen very often. 

I appreciate your (and everyone else’s) input. I’m all for stopping the run first, so I’m good with way that point. I’m concerned with his pass rush, but he’s also only 20…

[raleigh-panther]

Todd McShay on Williams

 

[Jon Snow]

13 hours ago, kungfoodude said:

I would counter that guys like Carter who have popped in those same loaded defenses didn't need the qualifying statements about "being loaded."

It's easy to see the potential, however his theoretical ceiling is definitely lower than a guy like Shemar Stewart. But that isn't the whole story, is it?

Why do you think Williams will develop where other prospects will not? Especially when he has been largely a top tier edge setter and nothing close to that as a pass rusher in his college career? He has been VERY consistent in his three years in college. 

He was 17 when he went to Georgia? He's only 20.

[Khyber53]

3 hours ago, MHS831 said:

And now that the offense is better (should be with a WR addition or two) and the defense can stop the run (on paper for now), teams will be forced to throw it more.  If our personnel is geared towards stopping the run as a priority, then the obvious reaction will be that we are forcing the pass.  Without addressing pressure from the edge (I think we have from the DL), are we forcing the offense to expose another weakness?  Can our LBs cover?  Can our CBs stay healthy and reduce penalties?  Do we have a free safety?  How good is our nickel? 

I think offense is easier to rebuild because you can control the action when you design plays.  Defenses have to react to the play, so it is harder.

No doubt, and I do see this is just one of our many issues. We can't be sure we've fixed any of our problems yet, offensive or defensive, because everything is still on paper as you said. 

Still, Edge, while obviously a need, I'm just not sure we pick one as a need that might be not up to the #8 pick when there are some real standouts that very well could still be able. Yes, I want to see us take Warren, a TE at 8, but there are DTs and other spots that could also still have some massive talent on the table at our pick spot. 

And that, coming off of injury thing still gives me pause.