What a Possible Trading Out of 1st Round May* Look Like

[h0llywood]

So far, post FA additions, the Panthers for the first time in a long time are in a position where they can move around their first round pick. Here's what it could look like if Dan wants to use this year to grab additional picks.
 
Using the classic Jimmy Johnson Valuation Model, here are three possible options (assuming the players are still there):

 

Scenario 1: The "Small Slide" (Trading with a team in the mid-20s)
If a team like the Green Bay Packers (#23) or Minnesota Vikings (#24) wants to jump up for a specific player, the Panthers could net an extra 3rd-round pick.

Panthers give: #19 (875 pts)
Panthers receive: #24 (740 pts) + #87 (155 pts)

Total Return: 895 pts (The Panthers "win" by 20 points, a common "tax" for moving up).

Possible Picks: Pick #24: Makai Lemon (WR, USC) or Kenyon Sadiq (TE, Oregon)- Pick #87: Josiah Trotter (LB, Missouri)

 

Scenario 2: The "Big Move" (Trading to the end of Round 1)
If a team like the Detroit Lions (#28) or Washington Commanders (#29) wants to get back into the top 20, the Panthers could demand a high 2nd-round pick.

Panthers give: #19 (875 pts)
Panthers receive: #29 (640 pts) + #61 (292 pts)

Total Return: 932 pts (A significant profit for moving back 10 spots).

Possible Picks: Pick #29: Akheem Mesidor (Edge, Miami) or Zion Young (Edge, Missouri) - Pick #61: Spencer Fano (OT, Utah) or Logan Jones (C, Iowa)

 

Scenario 3: The "Draft Capital Haul" (Trading out of the 1st Round)
If the Panthers decide they want multiple "bites at the apple" in the second day of the draft, they could trade with a team at the top of Round 2, like the Cleveland Browns (#33).

Panthers give: #19 (875 pts)
Panthers receive: #33 (580 pts) + #67 (255 pts) + #104 (86 pts)

Total Return: 921 pts (This gives Carolina three picks in the top 105).

Possible Picks: Pick #33: Cashius Howell (Edge, Texas A&M) - Pick #67: Kevin "KC" Concepcion (WR, Texas A&M) - Pick #104: Jalen Stroman (S, Notre Dame) or Jake Slaughter (C, Florida)

[Aussie Tank]

Good write up

[LinvilleGorge]

If I moved out of the 1st I'd want a future 1st as part of the package.

[shaq]

Filling our holes gives us this flexibility, a trade back paired with BPA would set this franchise even further up.

[Pejorative Miscreant]

I like the idea of a trade down but not sure about trading out of the first altogether. Valid and logical points for both. I think it really depends on how the board falls but the idea shouldn’t be completely off the table. 

[party_animal]

Trading out of the first lost some of the appeal with the inclusion of fifth year options. Only thing that mitigates it is a future first.

[Udogg]

The fact that this is even a discussion is a testament of the level of front office badassery that's going on. 

[NAS]

No take the BPA we’re not that loaded

[Shotgun]

The only way I would trade is if a team massively overpays. 

[Jon Snow]

In order to trade down you will have to give more points than you receive if you are the one instigating the trade.

[tukafan21]

17 hours ago, LinvilleGorge said:

If I moved out of the 1st I'd want a future 1st as part of the package.

This

And with possibly needing to replace Bryce next year and a deep QB class, I do not hate the idea of moving far enough back to pick up another 1st rounder next year out of the deal.

I wouldn't have said that a week ago, but I also never expected us to land 3 big FA's at our 3 biggest positions of need like we have, it totally changes things.

[LinvilleGorge]

Just now, tukafan21 said:

This

And with possibly needing to replace Bryce next year and a deep QB class, I do not hate the idea of moving far enough back to pick up another 1st rounder next year out of the deal.

Exactly what I was thinking. If Bryce doesn't show me next season that we shouldn't be considering replacing him, I'd love to go into next year's draft with two 1sts in my back pocket.  Not holding my breath about next year's "deep class" though. That's what everyone was saying about THIS class this tike last year.

[tukafan21]

22 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

Exactly what I was thinking. If Bryce doesn't show me next season that we shouldn't be considering replacing him, I'd love to go into next year's draft with two 1sts in my back pocket.  Not holding my breath about next year's "deep class" though. That's what everyone was saying about THIS class this tike last year.

Yes and no, part of why people were saying that about this year's draft class was the expectation by many that Manning and Dante Moore would have been coming out.

They very well could be the #1 and #2 picks in the draft next year, so hard to be too worried about next year's class for the reason of "they were saying that about this year" due to that.

[LinvilleGorge]

50 minutes ago, tukafan21 said:

Yes and no, part of why people were saying that about this year's draft class was the expectation by many that Manning and Dante Moore would have been coming out.

They very well could be the #1 and #2 picks in the draft next year, so hard to be too worried about next year's class for the reason of "they were saying that about this year" due to that.

People just gotta wake up and realize that Arch Manning hasn't done anything to be considered an NFL prospect other than having a recognizable name on the back of his jersey.