Jump to content

  • Welcome!

    Register and log in easily with Twitter or Google accounts!

    Or simply create a new Huddle account. 

    Members receive fewer ads , access our dark theme, and the ability to join the discussion!

     

Harvard - Panthers bottom 10 team in 2015

Jeremy Igo

By Jeremy Igo,
in Carolina Panthers

Recommended Posts

Jeremy Igo Newbie

Jeremy Igo

Posted
Posted

http://harvardsportsanalysis.org/2015/07/a-way-too-early-prediction-of-the-nfl-season/

 

Now that it’s late July, football fans everywhere are looking forward to the opening of training camp, preseason, and the not-so-distant start of the regular season.  Even though the so-called football experts struggle to forecast the outcomes of the 16-game season, I’ll try to put together a prediction model for the NFL season using a more quantitative method than the likes of Trent Dilfer.

The biggest challenge obviously is to come up with a sound way to estimate team strength, an endeavor that’s demanding considering the amount of personnel turnover each offseason and the lack of advanced statistics to evaluate player interactions.  The method that I came up with uses Pro Football Reference’s Approximate Value statistic, the site’s best measure of trying to tease out individual talent.  Then, using ESPN’s NFL depth charts, I aggregated each team’s per game approximate value of what I considered to be the “core” makeup of an NFL team: QB, RB, 2 WR, TE, Top 2 OL, the Top-4 “Front Seven” defensive players, and the Top-2 players from the secondary.

 

11.png

 

Not much love at all for the Carolina Panthers this season. What does this Harvard guy know that we don't? (Or vice versa)

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
juliosantos Newbie

juliosantos

Posted
Posted

The Luck praise is one thing, but having the Colts as a team that high is absurd. They're the most imbalanced team in the league, that defense is a complete joke.

they all love to suck off andrew luck and make him seem like hes the best qb to ever play but they make excuses for why he throws intos and gets blown out in the playoffs

Link to comment
Share on other sites
updownsigma Rookie

updownsigma

Posted
Posted

*Insert joke about him being associated with Harvard and questioning his intelligence after he picks our team to do poorly here* But really, haven't read the whole thing yet but his method for determining what/how good the "core" of a team is seems extremely flawed and arbitrary. Why look at AV of only the top 2 OL for example? Say one team has 5 very good to all pro lineman, why discount those remaining 3 players (maybe this is why the Cowboys are so low? Could just be because the Cowboys suck though).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Go to topic listing

  • PMH4OWPW7JD2TDGWZKTOYL2T3E.jpg

  • Topics

  • Posts

    • PanthersNCSU
      Joe Person: Panthers will let Cade Mays test the free agent market

      By PanthersNCSU · Posted

      If Mays has a market, which it seems he will, he's gone.  I think we bring back Nijman for too much money to be cautious at LT, Corbett comes back cheap since he's already said he wants to live in CLT, and Christensen eventually gets re-signed with the hopes he can be depth at some point.  Draft an OT, draft a C. The OL might be rough for stretches next year, but time to get some youth there to prepare for Bryce in 2027 or the next QB. I still think we compete for the division in 2026 and can go back to the playoffs unlike the oddsmakers in Vegas, but the *real* year is 2027 IMO. Either Bryce has proven it and he's the QB looking at his 2nd contract, or we have the ready-made team for the next rookie QB or Vet we trade for. 
    • therealmjl
      Joe Person: Panthers will let Cade Mays test the free agent market

      By therealmjl · Posted

      Dumb
    • Leeroy Jenkins Ph.D.
      Joe Person: Panthers will let Cade Mays test the free agent market

      By Leeroy Jenkins Ph.D. · Posted

      The Panthers are going to have a lot more flexibility in free agency than it looks like at first glance. On paper, the cap space might seem tight, but there are several obvious restructure candidates that could easily free up significant room. Between converting base salaries into signing bonuses and spreading cap hits out over future years, Carolina could realistically clear $60–80 million in additional space if they wanted to be aggressive. That kind of flexibility means they’re not stuck. They can extend key young pieces, add help along the offensive line, upgrade the defense, and still be strategic about value signings. Letting Cade Mays test the market makes sense from a leverage standpoint. If he’s willing to come back on a team-friendly deal, great, continuity on the line matters. But if his market price climbs, the Panthers should absolutely explore upgrades. The point is, this front office isn’t boxed in. With cap maneuvering and smart structuring, they have the ability to be active players in free agency rather than sitting on the sidelines like we are used too. 
×
×
  • Create New...