2017 offense's pace under Rivera/Shula

[tiger7_88]

The following piece is not my own and is from an article on a site that will not link in this forum.  It is based upon Football Outsider's Pace Stats at this link: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/pacestats

 

Quote

 

According to Football Outsiders’ pace statistics, the Carolina Panthers ran the league’s slowest offense in 2017. The 29.35 seconds they averaged between plays was over a second and a half longer than the league average.

There are two numbers that stand out in this chart- the Panthers’ pace in the second half and their pace when trailing by at least a touchdown. The Panthers are the slowest team in the league in both of these circumstances.

The slow pace of the second half coincides with the Panthers’ difficulty holding on to late leads. The two are probably unrelated, but the combination of a team playing at a very slow pace while surrendering their lead is enough to drive fans mad and call into question the team’s sense of urgency.

The Panthers took 2.68 seconds longer than the average team to run a play when trailing by at least a touchdown, which may partially explain why the Panthers went 3-6 (including playoffs) in games during which they trailed by a touchdown at any point during the game. The latest touchdown deficit the Panthers overcame was a 10-3 deficit with 13:32 left in the 2nd quarter against the Lions. I don’t have information on the rest of the league to compare that to, but it doesn’t seem great.

With Norv Turner taking over offensive coordinator duties, it’s assured we’ll see different things from the Panthers offense next season. However, whether or not the team adjusts its pace remains to be seen. Mike Shula could have been under orders from Ron Rivera to use as much clock as possible with each play call, which jibes with Rivera’s frequent emphasis on the importance of controlling the clock and winning time of possession. But from a fan’s perspective, it’d be nice to see the Panthers play with more pace and a better perceived sense of urgency.

 

Head Coach Ron Rivera... No urgency to score points since 2011.

 

[The Pieyed Piper]

n/m 

fu

 

[rhyslloyd]

But, but, but everyone keeps telling me what a great coach Rivera is.  Shula only had a job because of Rivera's incompetence.  

[tondi]

I bet Cam walked up to the line of scrimmage with fewer than ten seconds left on the play clock more than any qb in the league the last few years. It's almost like our coaching staff didn't want him doing any presnap reads. 

[BrianS]

1 hour ago, rhyslloyd said:

But, but, but everyone keeps telling me what a great coach Rivera is.  Shula only had a job because of Rivera's incompetence.  

This seemingly prevalent viewpoint needs to get stopped for good.  Not that Shula was a poor OC, he was.  But that Rivera is not a good coach.

We have a coach who is a two time AP coach of the year!  Do you know what the list of people with that accomplishment looks like?  Here, let me help you:  Allie Sherman, Don Shula, George Allen, Chuck Knox, Joe Gibbs, Bill Parcells, Bill Belichick, Dan Reeves, Tony Dungy, Bruce Arians.  And Ron Rivera.  That's a pretty strong list.  And every single one of those guys had / has flaws.

Every coach has flaws and blind spots.  RR's are pretty apparent:  A strong preference for veteran players and a belief in his subordinate coaches.  That doesn't mean he's a bad coach, it's simply a flaw.  Nobody is perfect.

I assure you that should we fire RR, he will have job offers at the very first opportunity.  There are many teams who would love to have RR as their head coach.

Oh, and just to put a final nail in this coffin . . . the best five year period in team history?  2011 to 2015.  Under RR.

Please.  Just stop with RR hate.  He's an imperfect but incredibly good coach.

[rhyslloyd]

15 minutes ago, BrianS said:

This seemingly prevalent viewpoint needs to get stopped for good.  Not that Shula was a poor OC, he was.  But that Rivera is not a good coach.

We have a coach who is a two time AP coach of the year!  Do you know what the list of people with that accomplishment looks like?  Here, let me help you:  Allie Sherman, Don Shula, George Allen, Chuck Knox, Joe Gibbs, Bill Parcells, Bill Belichick, Dan Reeves, Tony Dungy, Bruce Arians.  And Ron Rivera.  That's a pretty strong list.  And every single one of those guys had / has flaws.

Every coach has flaws and blind spots.  RR's are pretty apparent:  A strong preference for veteran players and a belief in his subordinate coaches.  That doesn't mean he's a bad coach, it's simply a flaw.  Nobody is perfect.

I assure you that should we fire RR, he will have job offers at the very first opportunity.  There are many teams who would love to have RR as their head coach.

Oh, and just to put a final nail in this coffin . . . the best five year period in team history?  2011 to 2015.  Under RR.

Please.  Just stop with RR hate.  He's an imperfect but incredibly good coach.

Two words:  Cam Newton. Cam has made Rivera's career.  He's the same lame duck he always has been.

[London Loves Luke]

Chip Kelly's NFL record: 28-36, 1 postseason in 5. 

Ron Rivera's NFL record: 64-47 4 postseasons in 7. 

 

[Dunn]

Hopefully Norv will help cure this and give Cam more time at the line.  

[Khyber53]

And yet, 11-5.

 

[bigdog10]

Combination of the fact that Shula had no concept of situational awareness and the fact that Cam takes forever in between plays (whether he’s on his back after a sack, celebrating a first down, or taking a knee to call the play in the huddle)  

Running hurry up offense and giving Cam freedom at the line to change the play would eliminate Cams tendency, however it would come at the cost of our incredibly old defense going back on the field too soon. 

I don’t mind the fact that we play slow to keep our defense rested. I just want better plays called from our coordinator (ie, stop sending two receivers to the same area). 

[FakePlasticTrees]

If your focus is on the defensive side of the ball then it makes sense to reduce urgency between plays. It eats time off of the clock and shortens the game. It also allows the defense to rest.

My problem is not so much with the time between plays, but with the predictability of the Panthers' playcalling. How much of that predictability occurred because of Shula and the limits of his system and how much is because of Rivera's defensive focus, his focus on time of possession, and his fear of turnovers remains a bit of a mystery.

BTW, one other factor that greatly impacts on early down playcalling is the accuracy of your QB. An incomplete pass stops the clock and tends to make you more predictable on 3rd down due to more third and long calls. This also greatly increases the risk of turnovers.

Finding the right balance would appear to be the key to sustained success. Here is to hoping that balance shows itself in the new system.

 

 

[GoobyPls]

That has nothing to do with Shula and everything to do with Rivera. He has stated in the past he doesn’t believe in fast pace no huddle offense. He would rather the offense struggle than his defense. I don’t think Norv is s fast pace offensive coach either btw

[thefuzz]

Playing to win vs. Playin not to lose.

 

Ron is of an era where you ran the ball, controlled the clock, and asked your QB not to lose it for you.  And that's all fine and well, unless you have a Cam Newton under center.  Then you need to attack.

I don't know exactly what happened to our offense since 2015, but something drastic changed.

 

[Saca312]

Rivera's philosophy derives itself from an archaic form of football back in his days of the '85 Bears. The days where "ground and pound" was the norm, enabling a focus on the defense. With that background, Rivera seeks to forcefully implement such philosophy in the modern day NFL, as his mentality focuses on defense despite whether the offense maintains talent or not.

Considering such, it's a damn shame when one analyzes the potential for the Panthers offense. Cam Newton is a bonafide star whose ability as a pocket passer and runner would make any competent offensive-minded coach drool with imagination of endless possibilities. A fast-paced, no-huddle modernized offense with Cam Newton as the lead with the 2018 roster likely would lead to significant points being scored and a juggernaut the NFL may have no answer to. However, Rivera has shown time and time again he likes to keep a leash on such potential due to his stubborn grounding upon obsolete football principles that fail in today's NFL.

Hopefully Norv has control over Rivera and implements a better modernized offense maximizing Cam's potential. However, this is unlikely, and it's a shame.