Is Kyle Allen Actually A Good QB?

[Mr. Scot]

4 minutes ago, mav1234 said:

I agree, but ffs, we have backs other than Cmac that could be better in such short yardage... we don't need our QB being a battering ram, regardless of who is back there.

I've never really been a big fan of putting quarterbacks in that role, honestly.

I get why you do it with Newton, but I'd much rather a trust that job to a power back.

[Newtcase]

So I want to word this carefully so it can't be interpreted by anyone as a jab at Cam.  Do you think the team is playing harder for Kyle?  I don't mean this from a "leadership" perspective.  I mean it as, could the team, understanding they have a young inexperienced QB at the helm, be stepping up their game a bit?  Cam is a huge presence and having him on or off the field surely has some impact on the psyche of the team.  I asking because it damn sure seems like the team as a whole has stepped it up.  I hope they stay in that gear when Cam goes back under center.

[Mr. Scot]

2 hours ago, d-dave said:

Nice work @Saca312!  I'm not yet convinced that Allen is the future, but I am thrilled that he's holding down the fort to allow Cam to come back at 100%, not just good enough.

Simple truth is, if you're a Panthers fan, you want Kyle Allen to be good.

Really good.

Cam Newton can't play forever, and there's legitimate evidence that his career might wind up coming to an end sooner than anybody hoped.

That's not something anyone wants, but what we want is irrelevant here. Reality doesn't take our desires into account.

If Newton's career were to be over, then the Panthers would be in the market for a quarterback, one who'd be tasked with filling some pretty big shoes. You'd have to look at it drafting with a high pick, signing a big free agent or using resources to trade, all of which have their own pros and cons.

Unless that guy was already on the roster.

Very few teams get to transition someone really good quarterback to another. The Colts and Packers both got lucky on that front.

If we can too, that would be phenomenal.

Why any Panther fan wouldn't be happy about that prospect? I have no idea.

[d-dave]

22 minutes ago, Mr. Scot said:

Simple truth is, if you're a Panthers fan, you want Kyle Allen to be good.

Really good.

Cam Newton can't play forever, and there's legitimate evidence that his career might wind up coming to an end sooner than anybody hoped.

That's not something anyone wants, but what we want is irrelevant here. Reality doesn't take our desires into account.

If Newton's career were to be over, then the Panthers would be in the market for a quarterback, one who'd be tasked with filling some pretty big shoes. You'd have to look at it drafting with a high pick, signing a big free agent or using resources to trade, all of which have their own pros and cons.

Unless that guy was already on the roster.

Very few teams get to transition someone really good quarterback to another. The Colts and Packers both got lucky on that front.

If we can too, that would be phenomenal.

Why any Panther fan wouldn't be happy about that prospect? I have no idea.

That would be fantastic, but you know Allen will bet on himself again.  He's going to look for money this off season (if he's a FA).  Ideally, Allen could hang back while Cam finishes his career in a couple more years, then step in as the 25 year old starter.  I'm not one of those fans who wants to see either fail.  I would be happy if Allen is able to show he can deal with adversity.  I also don't think we should just give up on Cam right now.

[Shocker]

55 minutes ago, Saca312 said:

you just read the title and not the post i assume lol.

you may be surprised.

Nice write up...thanks

[rodeo]

kyle allen is good, i think he'll have a long and solid josh mccown type career. teams will be happy to sign him as their back-up and be comfortable with him filling in for their injured qbs for many seasons to come.

[Tepper's Chest Hair]

Kyle Allen is potentially a good QB.  He is not one yet.

And that is ok.

He is an undrafted back up playing just well enough to not lose the game, while leaning on CMC and our Defense for most of the grunt work.

He has great potential.  And I look forward to seeing what he can grow into.

[Mr. Scot]

14 minutes ago, d-dave said:

That would be fantastic, but you know Allen will bet on himself again.  He's going to look for money this off season (if he's a FA).  Ideally, Allen could hang back while Cam finishes his career in a couple more years, then step in as the 25 year old starter.  I'm not one of those fans who wants to see either fail.  I would be happy if Allen is able to show he can deal with adversity.  I also don't think we should just give up on Cam right now.

He can't negotiate with anyone but the Panthers for at least the next two years.

[Peon Awesome]

Good analysis. Seems like Allen's tendency to go for the safe/checkdown throw has been a double edged sword. Certainly has helped lead to the zero interceptions but limits our big play ability.

You could certainly argue that as a general trend that tendency may be better for the team. If you're going down the field regularly there's a higher likelihood for both interceptions and incompletions, likely resulting in shorter possessions for the offense and thus less rest for the defense. Our ability to dial up consistent pressure on defense is contingent on maintaining fresh legs. You saw it in the Tampa Bay game in the 4th quarter when our offense went more conservative and we had some 3 and outs, we struggled to generate pressure on Winston.

Methodical drives built with high percentage short to mid range passes and running plays keeps the defense well rested and ultimately results in points on the board just like the homerun plays we're missing but with more time of possession and less risk. 

[ncfan]

Simple answer yes

 

This is like the Wentz/Foles situation in Philly 2 years ago.

Its a good situation 

[TheSpecialJuan]

Great work there 

[Palmetto]

He's playing  better than some 1st and 2nd round  picks in the league

[Pantherzack179812]

9 hours ago, Saca312 said:

Well, it sure is going to be an interesting ride this bye week. The hot takes will certainly be firing and the debates endless with no right or wrong clearly seen. The Kyle Allen vs Cam Newton fight seems to be a continuous struggle lately as Panthers fans pit one QB against the other, vying for which one is superior.

This pointless drivel needs to stop. 

Now, I'll be honest. I'm known as a "Cam-Stan" or whatever you like to call me. I think highly of Cam Newton's play. However, I want to note that does not diminish my opinion of Kyle Allen in the slightest bit, and I hope the following will help everyone realize my true opinion of the former UDFA turned pleasant surprise.

With this review, I hope to give everyone a better idea on who Kyle Allen is as a QB and the traits that have helped him succeed to leverage this team on a 4-0 run. 

Without further ado, let's get started.

General Background

Kyle Allen has an interesting story behind him. He originally was a five star prospect out of high school and attended Texas A&M. However, due to certain circumstances and performance he was soon benched. Afterwards, he transferred to Houston in hopes of a better opportunity. He eventually gets benched after three games.

Later, he decides to declare for the NFL draft. He goes undrafted. The Panthers pick him up as a UDFA and give him an opportunity on the practice squad, but cut him. Later on, he comes back and starts climbing back up the ladder, eventually getting his first start against the Saints during the 2018 season, where he won. Then comes this year, and he continues to exceed expectations, achieving a 4-0 run with a 5-0 overall record on his resume.

Really good story behind the kid.

Ball-Placement

One thing that stands out to me from Kyle Allen is his ball placement. While he's had a few egregious blips, he's also shown a lot of flashes of being great at it. More often than not, his placement is very good, and as a young QB that's really encouraging.

I mean, I'll be honest. This throw right off the bat against the Cardinals surprised me. Take a look.

Just look at that beauty. I mean I'd expect Cam Newton to make these kinds of throws, but seeing a backup make such with ease as well is very encouraging. He showcases solid accuracy to hit it between the defenders 

Reminds me of one of Cam Newton's darts against the Cowboys last year.

First game he started this year and he was already showing high level ball placement and throwing ability. For a UDFA designated backup, I'm very impressed.

However, what was arguably his best show of ball placement came on a deep throw to Wright against the Texans

Just incredible all around from catch to throw. Allen manages to throw a beautiful ball into a very tight window. Manages to place it in a spot where the DB and safety can't reach and only Wright could make a play. Used to only seeing Cam Newton make throws like these, so it's very much a positive seeing Allen do the same.

Now granted, he has made his fair share of mistakes in ball placement. Against the Buccaneers, his throw to Curtis Samuel in the endzone was extremely poor and should've been picked. Other throws were bad as well and placement suspect. However, one could argue the same for any NFL QB, as most will have their fair share of mistakes in general. For Kyle Allen, I don't hold those kinds of mistakes too much against him as they are to be expected.

Very encouraging sign with a QB who shows this level of accuracy this early in his career.

Anticipation

Another thing I like is his anticipation. Alongside his ball-placement, he shows high level ability in anticipating routes and placing the ball well.

On this play, he actually creates a big play opportunity that was never realized.

He anticipates Samuel's route and presses the ball outside to where it would've been away from the defender yet timed to where Curtis Samuel could catch it and make a big play from it. Had the corner not tripped Samuel up/been in the way (interference imo), this would've been a very impressive throw from Allen.

Additionally, he also showed his skillset in an incredible throw to Jairus Wright

Now this was impressive. He basically throws it to the opposing sidelines from the opposite hash into a very tight window. Anticipation and timing was perfect to a tee and the placement is exactly where it should be to avoid the Bucs defenders and give Wright the best chance to make a play.

Unfortunately, he does let it slip through his hands. Even then, incredible throw all around.

Now, Kyle Allen does not come without faults. After all, he is a former UDFA and second year quarterback. He still has deficiencies he needs to iron out. Sometimes, he'll underthrow a few deep balls as his underestimates his receivers' speed. This happened a few times with Curtis Samuel, as seen below.

The ball should've been placed further ahead to hit Samuel in stride. Would've gone for a touchdown with a non-underthrow. Instead, it is an incomplete pass.

Despite that, as of last sunday, he has shown steady improvement in deep ball accuracy. He's hitting his receivers deep more in stride rather than underthrowing. 

Just check out this play:

The Panthers o-line does a beautiful job picking up the blitz and giving Kyle Allen a pocket. With that protection, Allen anticipates Samuel's route and hits him in stride on a beauty. Big improvement from the past few weeks.

It's an encouraging sign for sure, as the talent is certainly there.

Overall, definitely more positives than negatives with Allen's anticipation. It certainly is good.

Pocket Presence

A fundamental aspect of QB play is one's ability in the pocket. For many quarterbacks, that's how they are defined. Their ability to play from the pocket largely determines the kinds of plays run and the overall efficiency of the offense.

Unfortunately for Kyle Allen, this has been one of his biggest obstacles thus far. 

One of his issues revolves around abandoning the pocket too early. He'll panic needlessly and scramble around, only to worsen the situation in most cases. 

For instance, check out the below play against the Jaguars.

This is not ideal. He creates the pressure on him through his bad process of abandoning the pocket early as he scrambles off to the right. He also nearly gets sacked. He needs to trust in his pocket, stay calm, and let the routes develop. I would have preferred he stick towards the open pocket near the left side and stayed put rather than scramble without reason.

He also creates pressure on himself at times through poor pocket decisions. 

On this play, he decides to try and veer off to the right when his offensive line was schemed to slide to the left. Should have stayed more center or towards the left, which would allow time for CMC to develop his route and go for an easy completion.

Instead, he's sacked and really only has himself to blame.

Additionally, on Kyle Allen's first drive against the Buccaneers, he had a very large opportunity to gain a decent chunk. However, his inability to step into the pocket has left plays on the field.

Kyle Allen drops back to pass while the OTs flush the edges away, creating a manageable pocket. Up ahead, he had DJ Moore on the dig and another possible option in Greg Olsen on the corner. However, due to him not stepping up, he panics and throws it out to McCaffrey, who has a plethora of Bucs keying on him, causing a loss of yardage.

In comparison, here's bum legged Cam Newton from week 2 against the Bucs and how he deals with the pocket.

As seen, Cam Newton calmly steps up in the pocket as the offensive line flushes the defensive linemen off to the side. He delivers a strike downfield to a wide open Curtis Samuel.

Plenty of that from Cam on film, especially given how bad Daryl Williams was weeks 1 and 2.

This is something that Kyle needs to continue to develop in his repertoire. Stepping up into the pocket and throwing downfield.

However, all hope isn't lost, as there are signs of improvement. Although there were still mistakes, he was making them way less frequently. Most of the time, he seemed calm and poised in the pocket, which allowed him to make better plays more. He didn't scramble much nor create needless pressure on himself.

What  especially stood out to me was this:

This is something I honestly haven't seen from him much, and it's a good sign. He acknowledges the push on the OTs and calmly steps up into the pocket incrementally to where the edge rushers are out of the picture. This allowed him to deliver a strike to Olsen without feeling edge pressure.

I was very pleased in seeing his improvement this past sunday in this area, as this is a part of quarterbacking I rate highly. He does have a few issues still in place, but its a promising trend seeing good things not seen before. As long as his pocket presence continues to improve at a consistent rate, he has a good future. And I think he will continue trending upwards.

Decision-Making

As a young QB, it's fair to expect that he'll have some faults in terms of decision making.

Unfortunately with Allen, this is a trait that is all too predominant in his film, even including yesterday's game. And while a little bit has improved, it has not been enough to where I'm confident in his ability to go beyond his outlet or first read.

I remember reading from @ellis about his stance of trying not to look at a play and assume where the ball is supposed to go. To be fair, in a lot of cases, that is true. That is something I myself should try and work on and every film evaluator should consider, as I often criticize PFF for assuming play designs in their grades. However, there are cases where I'll do my best to make a reasonable inference based on what I see in terms of design and kind of reads Allen is most likely making.

As this is probably the most obvious case of poor decision making, I'll go ahead and show a play where he threw to McCaffrey on a checkdown loss. I remember someone else bringing this play up in particular. Instead of letting myself do the talking, I'll show a clip of Olsen's reaction to Allen's play:

As Olsen is not pleased, this leads me to assume that perhaps Kyle Allen made the wrong decision in this instance, leading to Olsen being upset. 

From this angle, it does appear that Olsen has been schemed wide open and he feels this was a missed opportunity, especially considering the end result. Of course, giving Kyle the benefit of the doubt, it could simply be because he had no choice but to dump it off. However, closer examination of the pocket leads me to believe he had every opportunity to step in the pocket and throw, as there was plenty of time. Tackles would've flushed the edge rushers away if he stepped up and allowed him to deliver a throw with anticipation to Olsen's route.

This leads me to deduce Kyle could have made a better decision on this play.

What he should have done in this instance was trust in his pocket more and let Olsen's route develop. He had plenty of time to do so, and it is clear Olsen believed so as well. Instead, he decides to dump it off to McCaffrey for a loss.

This kind of stuff needs to be rid of from his game.

Another time he nearly killed Jairus Wright on a throw.

Well, my first critique would be ball placement in general. He should've thrown it a bit behind Wright to prevent the defender up top from crashing down into him like that. It's little wonder Jairus Wright chose to forgo the catch in favor of his health. For reference, here's Cam Newton from last year throwing it in just the perfect spot in a situation similar:

He throws it a little bit behind Funchess to where he can turn and twist his body to shield himself from the incoming safety while still making a catch on the ball. This is ideally how you want your QB to protect your WR in situations like these.

However, what was more egregious was the fact Kyle Allen had a better option. And, well, this time I'll let Olsen's reaction do the talking again.

As seen, Olsen's really open on the corner route again and throws up his hands in frustration after seeing the end-result of Allen's choice. Allen should have acknowledged the corner route option and probably would've gotten a better result out of it. Olsen's reaction shows that Allen should've progressed over to the corner route and that Olsen is indeed part of the read.

I will say that this kind of conservative decision making is more common than I'd like in Kyle's film. Now granted, the emphasis for Allen has been to make the safer throws, which is fine. However, he's often leaving open receivers due to panicking early and going for the checkdown. I would like to see him progress more in his reads and stay a little more patient, as he's left a lot of big plays on the board. Granted, Norv Turner is making this a very friendly offense in his favor with easy reads so it is of little consequence if he decides to go the easiest route. And given his tendency to go for the easier throws, he lowers the risk of causing an interception, which is a positive. Even so, defenses will likely start to key in on this trait of Allen's (As Todd Bowles has already commented on), and you'd like him to go beyond his first read/checkdown and continue on, whether he has a half-field progression or whatever he's assigned. 

Just a few critiques of Kyle Allen's game I would like to see improvement in.

Conclusions

Overall, I like Kyle Allen. I think for his role and original intent on the team, he's doing fine. He's a former UDFA backup who's exceeded expectations in his role. He's had two great games, and two poor games. Before his game against the Bucs, I'd argue he was a high end backup. After, I think he'd make do as a starter on certain teams after showing signs of improvement.

At worst, he's a functioning backup in the league. At best, he has the traits to become a decent starter.

However, right now, I do not like the idea of him becoming a long-term nor future starter. He still has a bit of deficiencies that need cleaning up before I'd be comfortable with that, plus level of competition plays a role. Even so, he still is young and developing. It is not fair to expect him to be at an NFL starter level right off the bat.

Plus, it's been only four games this season. Still got plenty to watch out for. 

His ball-placement, arm strength, and delivery are great and tools you want to see in an NFL quarterback. Kyle Allen has also shown good anticipation at times on intermediate and deep vertical routes and horizontals. 

Improvements I want to see continue include his pocket presence and fumbling issue. While he had some blips against the Buccaneers, overall he has started to step up into more throws and be more confident in the pocket, which is encouraging. 

His decision making is something I haven't seen many signs of improvement and I want to see him better at. Going through his progressions beyond his outlets and first read would be ideal. However, he's a young QB, so I don't blame him for being behind in this area.

The talent is still there - it just needs to be nurtured.

Nevertheless, as a stop-gap until Cam Newton gets healthy, he's good in his role.

Some Extra Thoughts

I generally think that it's unreasonable to tout Win-Loss record in terms of whether Kyle Allen is amazing or not. It's really a pointless subject. That's the equivalent of arguing Peyton Manning was good in Superbowl 50, when it was clear the defense carried that team heavily. Or that Philip Rivers is the worst QB to touch the field in 2015 and 2016 with a 4-12 and 5-11 record respectively. While I respect that Kyle Allen hasn't done much throwing wise to try to lose the game, it still is not an indicator of overall quarterback ability and play.

Plus, it's fairly arguable his fumbles have nearly lost us games too.

However, to be fair, he hasn't done too much where we would lose. In fact, he's had moments to help us win and overcome his faults. Yes, without question we've won because of Christian McCaffrey in the first three games, and the defense in all four. Turnover margin drastically improved as the season went on. Even so, I'll give Kyle Allen credit that he hasn't done enough to make us lose, and I definitely prefer him keeping his throws and reads safe for the most part over being reckless. While he does need to gain confidence in trying out some of the bigger plays every now and then, he'll be fine until it becomes too apparent to defenses that he's not going for the gold. 

I also think it's unreasonable to presume Kyle Allen would be a better option than a healthy Cam, or that his pocket presence and decision making are in the same tier. As long as Cam can plant his foot, that right there will likely fix a lot of his wild accuracy issues and allow him to follow through on his throws. And trust me, Cam Newton's pocket presence and decision making is still plenty top tier. His experience should give him the go-ahead over Kyle. It's also fair to argue that Cam's shoulder is fine, given his high velocity throws even with a broken foot.

However, this fix where people seemingly bash Kyle Allen also needs to stop. Likewise with bashing Cam. His role originally was to be a backup and emergency starter. He has been fine in that role and shows potential. Still a young quarterback with talent. It will take a few years to develop such talent, but that shouldn't knock down some of his impressive work as a stop-gap while Cam Newton heals. He's done enough where he's not actively trying to lose the game for the Panthers minus his fumbling.

We have a good backup situation where he's winning us games while Cam Newton heals up. That's not something most teams can say they have.

And that's all that really needs to be said.

Good analysis of Allen. Can't come to conclusion without disputing the pro Cam side as well. All your argument did was show who you support and the side you're against's faults. Cam has made similar mistakes including overthrows his whole career. The issue is that Cam should not even be within the same conversation as Kyle Allen. Saints fans aren't discussing this with Drew Brees... Ultimately, I love Cam as a Panther, not benching Kyle Allen at least until we lose. If Cam isn't 100% until 2020 so be it. It's obvious the Saints are Brees team, with Cam's performance (dink and dunk offense in 2018 and pretty close other then some 20-30 yard passes in 2017 do not count for me as elite qb performance) declining since 2015, I can't say the same about him. Of course he had a 70% passing rating, 90% of his passes were probably 15 yards or shorter, Kyle is going deep at least 3-4 times a game, getting the defense to back off the Line of scrimmage... what does this do? Bingo! Open the running game! When Cam is 100% healthy, he starts, if that never happens, it's Allen's job. I'm starting to think Ron finally gets it. 

[onmyown]

6 hours ago, Mr. Scot said:

Simple truth is, if you're a Panthers fan, you want Kyle Allen to be good.

Really good.

Cam Newton can't play forever, and there's legitimate evidence that his career might wind up coming to an end sooner than anybody hoped.

That's not something anyone wants, but what we want is irrelevant here. Reality doesn't take our desires into account.

If Newton's career were to be over, then the Panthers would be in the market for a quarterback, one who'd be tasked with filling some pretty big shoes. You'd have to look at it drafting with a high pick, signing a big free agent or using resources to trade, all of which have their own pros and cons.

Unless that guy was already on the roster.

Very few teams get to transition someone really good quarterback to another. The Colts and Packers both got lucky on that front.

If we can too, that would be phenomenal.

Why any Panther fan wouldn't be happy about that prospect? I have no idea.

Unless Allen takes us to the playoffs and then some this year I’d rather draft QB with a no 1 pick to fight out with him next year than rely on just Allen, if Newton is done.

But saying that...if Newton comes back against the titans and bombs the rest of the season not only will Allen be an unfinished story but we will have a crap pick in the draft for next year, and we probably would if Allen finishes the season but misses the playoffs as well. 
Win lose and lose lose scenarios.

Honestly this teams best scenario is Cam coming back full force 100%, best scenario and seemingly unlikely.

As far as Grier, I could be wrong, and this is based solely on him as a draft prospect since there really is no play for proof, but I think he’s a career backup.