Is Kyle Allen Actually A Good QB?

[Saca312]

edited the grammar a little bit for better readability overall.

[Saca312]

9 hours ago, JARROD said:

Longest post ever— 

like ever ever.

but it was very interesting and well worked. Was definitely better than 90% of the clickbait hack articles on the network sites.

 

appreciate it!

[Jeremy Igo]

Ron and Greg have both said he has improved with every game. If that continues throughout the season he is a starter in this league. We will know more once he hits his ceiling. He clearly has not hit it yet.

[Sam Mills Fan]

22 hours ago, Saca312 said:

Well, things are certainly going to be quite interesting this bye week. The hot takes will certainly be firing and the debates endless with no right or wrong in sight. Panthers fans will unfortunately be pitted against one another, vying for which QB between Cam Newton and Kyle Allen is superior.

I'll just say this right now: this pointless debate about 'who's the better QB' needs to stop.

Now, I'll be upfront and honest. I'm a "Cam-Stan". I think highly of Cam Newton's play. I am bold enough to declare he's a top 3 QB when healthy and in an elite category of his own.

Even then, this doesn't give me or anyone else the right to diminish Kyle Allen's impact.

As a former backup, Kyle Allen came in with little expectation. I mean, one look at his preseason performance shows a catastrophe waiting to happen. When Cam Newton officially went down, I'm sure many were worried whether the Panthers could even be competitive after their 0-2 start.

Yet, Kyle Allen proved his doubters wrong. He went on to keep this team in the balance and helped them to a 4-0 run.

Here's how he did it.

General Background

Kyle Allen has an interesting story behind him. Back then, he was a five star prospect out of high school, showcasing high potential in physical stature and talent. Texas A&M recruited him and he became an Aggie to start off his collegiate career. However, due to certain circumstances and performance issue, he was soon benched. Afterwards, he transferred to Houston in hopes of a better opportunity. Unfortunately, he again gets benched after a few games.

Despite the setbacks, he decides to still declare for the NFL draft, hoping to get an opportunity with the best of the best. Sadly, he goes undrafted.

However, the story doesn't end here.

The Panthers soon took notice of Kyle Allen and decide to pick him up as a UDFA. He goes on to compete on the Panthers in hopes to at least make the practice squad. He does achieve this goal for a little while, but unfortunately is later cut off the team. However, the Panthers would later come back to Allen and give him one more shot. This time, the story takes a turn for the better. He competes and shows up, impressing the coaches and team to the point he became the third string backup. However, his biggest moment came when Taylor Heinicke went down against the Falcons. He comes in and steadies the boat and while the Panthers still lost, he still showed potential. 

Soon, he gets the nod as the starter against the Saints in the last Panthers game of the 2018 season. He goes on and helps architect a win against the NFC South leader & playoff contender.

And now, he's currently the starter of the Panthers with a 5-0 record as a starter. From bust to starter, he's had quite the journey.

Really good story behind the kid.

Ball-Placement

Now to some film.

In terms of strengths, one of Kyle Allen's biggest revolves around his ball placement. Now, this is a skill I rate highly myself. One of the biggest things necessary as a quarterback is their ability to throw, and place the ball in the best position for their receiver to make the play. 

Well, I'll go ahead and assure you Kyle Allen has talent in this area.

I mean, I'll be honest. I didn't have many expectations with Kyle Allen's accuracy or ball placement. He's a UDFA after all, and I didn't know his history that well. Even then, he showed right off the bat he's got plenty of talent.

Take a look at this throw against the Cardinals.

Just look at that beauty. I mean, I expect Cam Newton to make a throw like this because he's elite. But Kyle Allen? I mean, color me surprised when I saw this live. I almost thought I was watching Cam Newton for a solid minute there. 

Kyle Allen shows incredible torque and velocity in his throw as he threads it between Cardinal defenders into the reliable hands of Greg Olsen. Ball placement was spot on to where Olsen could catch it and Cardinals defenders could not.

Just an incredibly talented throw.

And well, it honestly reminds me of an unreal throw Cam Newton had against the Cowboys last year.

For Kyle's first game as a starter this year, I'm really impressed. 

However, he's not done yet. Just take a look at this throw against the Texans.

This has to be one of my favorite throws from Kyle Allen. l mean, it's beautiful. He throws the ball several dozen yards downfield into a pretty tight window. Manages to place it in a spot where the DB and safety can't reach and only Wright could make a play. 

I compare these throws to Cam Newton a lot only because I think very few QBs can match his level of ability. But seeing Kyle Allen make these kind of throws as well is very encouraging.

Now granted, he has made his fair share of mistakes in ball placement. Not everything about his game is fluff. Against the Buccaneers, his throw to Curtis Samuel in the endzone was poor placement and should've been picked. There were plenty of other examples too. However, I'll be honest and argue most NFL quarterbacks have had their fair share of mistakes in general. For Kyle Allen, I don't hold those kinds of mistakes too much against him as they are to be expected for a quarterback his age.

Either way, this is some really good stuff.

Anticipation

Another thing I like is his anticipation. Alongside his ball-placement, he shows high level ability in anticipating routes and placing the ball well.

Just take a look at the below play.

Believe it or not, this had plenty of opportunity to be a big play, and it wasn't Kyle Allen's fault it wasn't realized. He anticipates Samuel's route and presses the ball outside to where it's away from the defender yet in a spot where Curtis Samuel can make a play. Had the corner not tripped Samuel up/been in the way (interference imo), this would've been a very impressive throw from Allen.

Very good anticipation in terms of where Samuel's route would've ended up alongside accounting for the defender.

However, that wasn't his best anticipated throw yet. Just take a look at his best throw thus far in his career.

Now this was impressive. He basically throws it to the opposing sidelines from the opposite hash into a very tight window. Anticipation and timing was perfect to a tee and the placement is exactly where it should be to avoid the Bucs defenders and give Wright the best chance to make a play. 

I'll tell you upfront: very few QBs can make that play. Not even mentioning the fact this is a UDFA QB making this kind of top tier throw. 

Everything was perfect up to Wright messing up and making an egregious drop. A beautiful dime all around that's very eye-catching.

Now, Kyle Allen still has a few deficiencies he needs to iron out. Sometimes, he'll under-throw a few deep balls due to underestimating his receivers' speed. This happened a few times with Curtis Samuel, as seen below.

The ball should've been placed further ahead to hit Samuel in stride. Would've gone for a touchdown with a non-underthrow. Instead, it is an incomplete pass.

However, not all hope is lost. He's already starting to show improvement in that area.

Just check out this play:

The Panthers o-line does a beautiful job picking up the blitz and giving Kyle Allen a pocket. With that protection, Allen anticipates Samuel's route and hits him in stride on a beauty. Big improvement from the past few weeks.

Overall, Kyle Allen showcases elite traits in his anticipation. 

Pocket Presence

A fundamental aspect of QB play is one's ability in the pocket. For many quarterbacks, that's their make or break point. Their ability to play from the pocket largely determines the kinds of plays run and the overall efficiency of the offense.

Unfortunately for Kyle Allen, this has been one of his biggest obstacles thus far. 

One of his issues revolves around abandoning the pocket too early. He'll panic needlessly and scramble around, only to worsen the situation in most cases. 

For instance, check out the below play against the Jaguars.

This is not ideal. He creates the pressure on him through his bad process of abandoning the pocket early as he scrambles off to the right, nearly getting sacked in the process. This is all avoidable had he shown any semblance of pocket presence.

He needs to trust in his offensive line to maintain a pocket, stay calm, and let the routes develop. I would have preferred he stick towards the open pocket near the left side and stayed put rather than scramble without reason.

Additionally, his poor pocket presence has led to some needless pressure even when he's not scrambling.

On this play, he decides to try and veer off to the right when his offensive line was schemed to slide to the left. As you can tell, this obviously did not end well. He finds himself on the ground after getting sacked.

This was all preventable. Had he stayed more center or went to the left as the protection was designed for him to do, he would've found an open Christian McCaffrey and come up with a decent chunk play.

Instead, he's sacked and really only has himself to blame.

However, his biggest fault has been his ability to step into the pocket. On Kyle Allen's first drop back against the Buccaneers, he had a good opportunity to make a decent play.

Kyle Allen drops back to pass while the OTs flush the edges away, creating a manageable pocket. Up ahead, he had DJ Moore on the dig and another possible option in Greg Olsen on the corner. However, due to him not stepping up, he lets the edge defenders come up and meet him, panics and throws it out to McCaffrey, who has a plethora of Bucs keying on him, causing a loss of yardage.

This is not ideal. Kyle Allen should've stepped up in the pocket to avoid the pass rush and deliver a strike to DJ Moore. Maybe Olsen for a bigger play, especially considering his talent in ball placement and anticipation.

To compare, here's bum legged Cam Newton from week 2 against the Bucs and how he deals with the pocket.

As seen, the former MVP calmly steps up in the pocket as the offensive line flushes the defensive linemen off to the side. He delivers a strike downfield to a wide open Curtis Samuel for a large game.

Stepping up into the pocket is a common theme from Cam Newton's film. With how bad his offensive tackles have been, this is a skill necessary for him to have functioned for as long as he has.

This is something that Kyle needs to continue to develop in his repertoire. Stepping up into the pocket. It's a fundamental aspect of quarterbacking I'd like to see him master.

However, all hope isn't lost, as there were signs of improvement. After his messy first drive, he started looking very comfortable in the pocket. He was much more poised, less sporatic, and started stepping into his throws more against the Buccaneers. Color me impressed as that was something that even surprised me. 

In fact, he shows he's learned a bit from his mistakes on the play below.

This is something I honestly haven't seen from him much, and it's a very encouraging sign. Stepping into the pocket. He acknowledges the push on the OTs and calmly steps up into the pocket incrementally to where the edge rushers are out of the picture. This allowed him to deliver a strike to Olsen without feeling edge pressure.

I was very pleased in seeing his improvement this past sunday in this area, as this is a part of quarterbacking I rate highly. He does have a few issues, but they seem to be coming out with less frequency. It's a promising trend . As long as his pocket presence continues to improve at a consistent rate, he has a good future ahead of him.

Decision-Making

As a young QB, it's fair to expect that Kyle Allen will have some faults in terms of decision making.

Unfortunately for him, its not his best quality as is all too predominant in his film, even including yesterday's game. And while a little bit has improved, it has not been enough to where I'm confident in his ability to go beyond his outlet or first read.

I remember reading from @ellis about his stance of trying not to look at a play and assume where the ball is supposed to go. To be fair, in a lot of cases, that is true. That is something I myself should try and work on and every film evaluator should keep in mind, as I've even criticized other entities like PFF for doing the same. However, there are cases where I'll do my best to make a reasonable inference based on what I see in terms of design and kind of reads Allen is most likely making.

As this is probably the most obvious case of poor decision making, I'll go ahead and show a play where he threw to McCaffrey on a checkdown loss. I remember someone else bringing this play up in particular. Instead of letting myself do the talking, I'll show a clip of Olsen's reaction to Allen's play:

As Olsen is not pleased, this leads me to assume that perhaps Kyle Allen made the wrong decision in this instance, leading to the tight end being upset. 

From this angle, it does appear that Olsen has been schemed wide open and he feels this was a missed opportunity, especially considering the end result. Of course, giving Kyle the benefit of the doubt, it could simply be because he had no choice but to dump it off. However, closer examination of the pocket leads me to believe he had every opportunity to step in the pocket and throw, as there was plenty of time. Tackles would've flushed the edge rushers away if he stepped up and allowed him to deliver a throw with anticipation to Olsen's route.

This leads me to deduce Kyle could have made a better decision on this play.

What he should have done in this instance was trust in his pocket more and let Olsen's route develop. He had plenty of time to do so, and it is clear Olsen believed so as well. Instead, he decides to dump it off to McCaffrey for a loss.

This kind of stuff needs to be rid of from his game.

Another time he nearly killed Jairus Wright on a throw.

Well, my first critique would be ball placement in general. He should've thrown it a bit behind Wright to prevent the defender up top from crashing down into him like that. It's little wonder Jairus Wright chose to forgo the catch in favor of his health. For reference, here's Cam Newton from last year throwing it in just the perfect spot in a situation similar:

He throws it a little bit behind Funchess to where he can turn and twist his body to shield himself from the incoming safety while still making a catch on the ball. This is ideally how you want your QB to protect your WR in situations like these.

But that's besides the point. What was more egregious was the fact Kyle Allen had a better option. And, well, this time I'll let Olsen's reaction do the talking again.

As seen, Olsen's really open on the corner route again and throws up his hands in frustration after seeing the end-result of Allen's choice. Allen should have acknowledged the corner route option and probably would've gotten a better result out of it. Olsen's reaction shows that Allen should've progressed over to the corner route and that Olsen is indeed part of the read.

I will say that this kind of conservative decision making is more common than I'd like in Kyle's film. Now granted, the emphasis for Allen has been to make the safer throws, which is fine. However, he's often leaving open receivers due to panicking early and going for the checkdown. I would like to see him progress more in his reads and stay a little more patient for the better option. Sure, Norv Turner is making this a very friendly offense in Allen's favor with easy reads so it is of little consequence if he decides to go the easiest route. And given his tendency to go for the easier throws, he lowers the risk of causing an interception, which is a positive. Even so, defenses will likely start to key in on this trait of Allen's (As Todd Bowles has already commented on), and you'd like him to go beyond his first read/checkdown and continue on, whether he has a half-field progression or whatever he's assigned. 

Just a few critiques of Kyle Allen's game I would like to see improvement in.

Conclusions

Overall, I like Kyle Allen. I think for his role and original intent on the team, he's doing fine. He's a former UDFA backup who's exceeded expectations in his role. He's had two great games, and two poor games. Before his game against the Bucs, I'd argue he was a high end backup. After, I think he'd make do as a starter on certain teams after showing signs of improvement.

At worst, he's a functioning backup in the league. At best, he has the traits to become a decent starter.

However, right now, I do not like the idea of him becoming a long-term nor future starter. He still has a bit of deficiencies that need cleaning up before I'd be comfortable with that, plus level of competition plays a role. Even so, he still is young and developing. It is not fair to expect him to be at an NFL starter level right off the bat.

Plus, it's been only four games this season. Still got plenty to watch out for. 

His ball-placement, arm strength, and delivery are great and tools you want to see in an NFL quarterback. Kyle Allen has also shown good anticipation at times on intermediate and deep vertical routes and horizontals. 

Improvements I want to see continue include his pocket presence and less fumbling. While he had some blips against the Buccaneers, overall he has started to step up into more throws and be more confident in the pocket, which is encouraging. 

His decision making is something I haven't seen many signs of improvement and I want to see him better at. Going through his progressions beyond his outlets and first read would be ideal. However, he's a young QB, so I don't blame him for being behind in this area.

The talent is still there - it just needs to be nurtured.

Nevertheless, as a stop-gap until Cam Newton gets healthy, he's good in his role.

Some Extra Thoughts

I generally think that it's unreasonable to tout Win-Loss record in terms of whether Kyle Allen is amazing or not. It's really a pointless subject. That's the equivalent of arguing Peyton Manning was good in Superbowl 50, when it was clear the defense carried that team heavily. Or that Philip Rivers is the worst QB to touch the field in 2015 and 2016 with a 4-12 and 5-11 record respectively. While I respect that Kyle Allen hasn't done much throwing wise to try to lose the game, it still is not an indicator of overall quarterback ability and play.

Plus, it's fairly arguable his fumbles have nearly lost us games too.

However, to be fair, he hasn't done too much where we would lose. In fact, he's had moments to help us win and overcome his faults. Yes, without question we've won because of Christian McCaffrey in the first three games, and the defense in all four. Turnover margin drastically improved as the season went on. Even so, I'll give Kyle Allen credit that he hasn't done enough to make us lose, and I definitely prefer him keeping his throws and reads safe for the most part over being reckless. While he does need to gain confidence in trying out some of the bigger plays every now and then, he'll be fine until it becomes too apparent to defenses that he's not going for the gold. 

I also think it's unreasonable to presume Kyle Allen would be a better option than a healthy Cam, or that his pocket presence and decision making are in the same tier. As long as Cam can plant his foot, that right there will likely fix a lot of his wild accuracy issues and allow him to follow through on his throws. And trust me, Cam Newton's pocket presence and decision making is still plenty top tier. His experience should give him the go-ahead over Kyle. It's also fair to argue that Cam's shoulder is fine, given his high velocity throws even with a broken foot.

However, this fix where people seemingly bash Kyle Allen also needs to stop. Likewise with bashing Cam. His role originally was to be a backup and emergency starter. He has been fine in that role and shows potential. Still a young quarterback with talent. It will take a few years to develop such talent, but that shouldn't knock down some of his impressive work as a stop-gap while Cam Newton heals. He's done enough where he's not actively trying to lose the game for the Panthers minus his fumbling.

We have a good backup situation where he's winning us games while Cam Newton heals up. That's not something most teams can say they have.

And that's all that really needs to be said.

Such a pointless thread. Do you realize what you could have done with film 5 games into Cam's career? People that have access to All-22 think they're Greg Cosell.

[Saca312]

1 minute ago, Sam Mills Fan said:

Such a pointless thread. Do you realize what you could have done with film 5 games into Cam's career? People that have access to All-22 think they're Greg Cosell.

Did you even read the thread lmao. 

I said Kyle Allen is good pal. And addressed the fact the sample size is small.

Quote

Even so, he still is young and developing. It is not fair to expect him to be at an NFL starter level right off the bat.

Plus, it's been only four games this season. Still got plenty to watch out for. 

His ball-placement, arm strength, and delivery are great and tools you want to see in an NFL quarterback. Kyle Allen has also shown good anticipation at times on intermediate and deep vertical routes and horizontals. 

Improvements I want to see continue include his pocket presence and less fumbling. While he had some blips against the Buccaneers, overall he has started to step up into more throws and be more confident in the pocket, which is encouraging. 

His decision making is something I haven't seen many signs of improvement and I want to see him better at. Going through his progressions beyond his outlets and first read would be ideal. However, he's a young QB, so I don't blame him for being behind in this area.

The talent is still there - it just needs to be nurtured.

 

[raz]

for the love of pete ppl please stop quoting saca's original post.  he'll know you're talking to him.

[Mr. Scot]

3 hours ago, Jeremy Igo said:

Ron and Greg have both said he has improved with every game. If that continues throughout the season he is a starter in this league. We will know more once he hits his ceiling. He clearly has not hit it yet.

And he may not for a while.

People are going to assume that the first time he loses or has a bad game, it'll mean that's his ceiling. 

It won't necessarily be true.

Lots of young guys have bad games they bounce back from and come back even better. Hell, Delhomme certainly did, and his early games are a pretty good reference point by which to judge Allen.

[BrianS]

21 hours ago, Mr. Scot said:

And he may not for a while.

People are going to assume that the first time he loses or has a bad game, it'll mean that's his ceiling. 

It won't necessarily be true.

Lots of young guys have bad games they bounce back from and come back even better. Hell, Delhomme certainly did, and his early games are a pretty good reference point by which to judge Allen.

Exactly.  I just can't fathom any Panthers fan who isn't rooting for Kyle to continue to improve for years.  Because frankly he's better than a lot of NFL QB's right now.  If he continues to improve, we may have just lucked in to the one of the best QB situations in the league.  What would teams like Miami, Buffalo, Tennessee, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Tampa Bay, Washington . . . what would those teams give to have picked up Kyle Allen?

Maybe 2015 Cam shows up again and we win the SB this year.  It could happen.  But, having Kyle Allen on the roster opens up a lot of options for us in the draft and on the roster going forward that we otherwise might not have had regardless of what happens with Cam.

[Peppers90 NC]

We know this thread was created for the opportunity to show deficiencies

 

"I'm love Kyle Allen but......"

[Saca312]

On 10/15/2019 at 10:43 PM, Mr. Scot said:

Can you name a quarterback that doesn't benefit from having a good team around him?

 

Very fair. 

Guys like Patrick Mahomes, while insanely talented, still need a high level offense around them to be putting up the madden numbers they have.

A good offense surrounding a QB is always a good thing in any scenario, and a bad offense is extremely hard for a QB to overcome.

[NanuqoftheNorth]

8 minutes ago, Saca312 said:

Very fair. 

Guys like Patrick Mahomes, while insanely talented, still need a high level offense around them to be putting up the madden numbers they have.

A good offense surrounding a QB is always a good thing in any scenario, and a bad offense is extremely hard for a QB to overcome.

True, and that is part of what made Cam Superman back in the day. 

Even though he wasn't always able to overcome the lack of talent around him, he was able to make the Panthers instantly more entertaining and competitive. 

While one player can make a big difference, they can't do it all by themselves.

[CRA]

8 hours ago, Saca312 said:

Very fair. 

Guys like Patrick Mahomes, while insanely talented, still need a high level offense around them to be putting up the madden numbers they have.

A good offense surrounding a QB is always a good thing in any scenario, and a bad offense is extremely hard for a QB to overcome.

people forget, with Alex Smith leading KC.....the results were not drastically different.   Yes, the O is obviously more explosive but Alex Smith had comical numbers and success too. 

Obviously, Mahomes is much better than Smith.  But Reid's system and talent simply is going to produce good results with a competent starting caliber QB.

[Happy Panther]

Here is another stat:

 

 

[weyco2000]

On 10/16/2019 at 8:35 AM, raz said:

for the love of pete ppl please stop quoting saca's original post.  he'll know you're talking to him.

No sh1t