Breer goes deep on the Darnold trade

[Mr. Scot]

From today's MMQB: Why the Panthers made their move

In last week’s GamePlan, we gave you the A-to-Z on the Sam Darnold trade from the Jets’ perspective. So in the interest of equal time, I thought it was important to give you the same sort of look at the deal from the other side.

And really, there is one place where the stories match up perfectly: Both started with an important new hire coming from the NFC West on Jan. 14. That’s right, only a few hours separated the Jets’ striking a deal to make Robert Saleh their head coach, and the Panthers’ tabbing Seattle exec Scott Fitterer to be their new general manager. So that’s where Carolina’s quarterback pursuit began.

• The Panthers’ big swing for Matthew Stafford—an offer that included the eighth pick, a fifth-rounder and Teddy Bridgewater—fell short. From there, Fitterer and coach Matt Rhule started to reset at the quarterback position. Deshaun Watson was the biggest fish in the pond, but through January and February (before news broke of his legal situation), Texans GM Nick Caserio hadn’t shown, to any team, an appetite for even discussing a trade, telling them some variation of “You can ask me about anyone but the quarterback.”

• Darnold’s name first came up in February meetings, along with other potentially available quarterbacks, as the team worked through its offseason plan at all positions. Both Fitterer and Rhule had interesting background on Darnold—since Fitterer interviewed for the Jets’ GM job in the spring of 2019 and the Jets had made a run at poaching Rhule from Baylor a few months before that. The Jets had Rhule meet with Darnold, and it struck Rhule how Darnold seemed to have as good a handle of what it took to win as anyone, with all his questions centered on culture and team-building, rather than X’s-and-O’s. For his part, Fitterer remembered feedback from Jets owner Christopher Johnson, president Hymie Elhai and coach Adam Gase, and how each thought of Darnold as a person.

• Fitterer also had his own evaluation from Darnold’s time at USC, having written up the former first-team All-Pac 12 quarterback as an even-keeled guy beloved in the Trojans’ program, who consistently rose to the occasion when the stakes were high, and a very good athlete capable of making throws to every level of the field. Rhule and Fitterer’s subsequent look at Darnold’s tape showed flashes of what everyone saw in him at USC, where he could get outside the pocket and rip it to wherever he wanted.

• The initial phone call to the Jets was … interesting. Fitterer and Rhule called from director of player personnel Pat Stewart’s phone, since Stewart was closest with New York GM Joe Douglas. Douglas answered in a sort of ditzy voice—“Stu-ert?”—and Fitterer and Rhule were caught off-guard. Stewart wasn’t. It was an inside joke referencing the Stuart character on Saturday Night Live’s Californians skit. After the initial awkwardness, Douglas told the Panthers’ crew that he needed to get through the pro days for the top quarterback prospects in the draft and get medicals for all of them, but to stay in touch. And through natural conversation in the weeks to come, the Jets and Panthers did.

• Since the Jets and Panthers were among the teams to send full crews to the big quarterback pro days, Fitterer, Rhule and Douglas found themselves in the same place at the same time a bunch. But for a while, there wasn’t a ton to talk about. In fact, at Trey Lance’s March 12 pro day in Fargo, there wasn’t much communication between GMs, other than a quick hello.

• That changed on March 26 in Provo, Utah. That morning, Fitterer was standing next to 49ers assistant GM Adam Peters when Carolina PR chief Bruce Speight texted him that San Francisco had made a massive move up the board to land the third pick from Miami. Fitterer flashed the text to Peters, who flashed a smile back at him. (The Panthers had previously kicked around the idea of dealing up, but decided fairly early on that the price would be prohibitive for where they were in building the team.) As BYU QB Zach Wilson finished throwing, Fitterer found Douglas, asked about Darnold, and they agreed to talk during the week to follow, with both teams sending sizable groups to Columbus for Justin Fields’s Ohio State pro day.

• The Jets and Panthers talked again on March 29, the night before Fields was to throw, then lingered afterward in Ohio State’s field house to continue the conversation. By that Friday, April 2, both sides felt like a deal was close. They talked again on Saturday, paused on Easter morning, with more texts back-and-forth late on that Sunday afternoon. And on Monday morning, the final hurdles were being cleared.

• For the Panthers, based on how their draft board sets up and their needs, it was important to hold onto their slotted picks in the first (No. 8), second (No. 39) and third (No. 73) rounds. So the compromise, with the Jets asking for “a second-rounder plus,” was to have the two come in 2022. And initially, the concept Carolina was working off was to have two later 2021 picks as part of the deal, but the sides couldn’t quite make the terms work under those parameters. So Carolina moved the sixth-rounder it was offering this year down (Carolina has three sixth-rounders and gave the Jets the last one), and the 2021 fifth-rounder they were offering up to a fourth-rounder and into next year. That leaves the Panthers with seven picks in this year’s draft, which gives them a shot to fill needs and potentially move some picks to 2022 to replace those they just dealt away.

[Mr. Scot]

Continuing on the aftermath...

• The relationship between the Panthers and Teddy Bridgewater was already strained (trade rumors will do that), but Carolina’s doing its best to manage the situation now. Bridgewater has permission to seek a trade, and Rhule has left the door open to having Bridgewater back to compete with Darnold for the job. One important nuance here: $10 million of his $17 million base salary for 2021 is fully guaranteed, so there’s a ceiling for how big a pay cut Bridgewater would be willing to take to help Carolina facilitate a trade.

• Acquiring Darnold gives the Panthers a lot more flexibility with the eighth pick—but it does not preclude them from taking a quarterback. The 49ers’ deal certainly sparked the last set of talks between the Jets and Panthers on Darnold. All Fitterer and Rhule had to do was start to count the quarterback-needy teams in front of them to know the chance one they valued would fall to them had dwindled. And yet, if the right one gets to them, they’d likely still pounce. This just allows Rhule and Fitterer to be true to the board, with the ability to fill corner and tackle needs (and not press the QB need) there, and good players at those positions expected to be available when Carolina’s on the clock.

And tucked in there is the Panthers’ all-in approach to getting the quarterback spot right.

At first, it was an aggression to look for an upgrade in Stafford, even though Bridgewater was, for the most part, fine last year. In the middle, it was turning over every rock, from Watson to Darnold. In the end, it could mean overstocking the position a little, and if you look at Fitterer’s history it’s not hard to figure where he’d have gotten that idea.

Fitterer worked in Seattle for 20 years, was there for the duration of the Matt Hasselbeck era, and then saw how his boss, John Schneider, kept taking swings at quarterbacks. Seattle had Hasselbeck back for a year. The Seahawks dealt for Charlie Whitehurst and they signed Tarvaris Jackson. And then they inked Matt Flynn to relatively pricey deal in 2012, with Schneider having been a part of drafting Flynn in Green Bay in 2008.

At that point, most figured the Seahawks were done for that offseason at quarterback. But Schneider didn’t let his pride get in the way of his draft board—and he didn’t hesitate to take an intriguing, undersized QB prospect out of Wisconsin in the middle of the third round. That prospect, Russell Wilson, beat Flynn out to start in camp, and the rest is history.

History, clearly, that Fitterer is carrying with him.

[Mr. Scot]

And just a little more about Darnold himself...

I do think there’s one thing everyone should know about Darnold before we move on. Really, there’s a pretty simple explanation for why he played like he did the last couple years—and that boils right down to fit. I don’t really know how sold Adam Gase ever was on Darnold (he preferred Baker Mayfield and Josh Allen ahead of the 2018 draft, when he was still in Miami), and I do think the result of that was that the Jets never bent quite enough to make their system work for him the last couple of years. It’s easy to blame Gase for that, and some of it is on him. But it’s also on those doing the hiring in 2019, who by then had to know the player, and how he’d fit the coach he was about to work under. Fact is, Darnold was relatively raw coming out of USC, hadn’t had the classic quarterback training growing up in Orange County that a lot of others have (because he was a multisport athlete in high school) and played in a fairly simple system in college that allowed him to make the most of his athletic gifts. Coming to the pros, he simply wasn’t ready to run a complex system—and that’s not to say he wouldn’t eventually be able to get there. It was at the point where I know it was suggested to the coaches that they take line calls and “Mike” points off of him and give those responsibilities to the center, to try and get Darnold playing faster. And it never happened. That’s also why I think the Shanahan system is seen as a good fit for Darnold—because that system takes much of the mental burden off the quarterback. So now, as I see it, it’ll be on Panthers OC Joe Brady to tailor his scheme in a way that works for Darnold. And prioritizing getting Darnold playing fast again would be a good place to start.

[run-run-pass-punt]

14 minutes ago, Mr. Scot said:

And just a little more about Darnold himself...

Fact is, Darnold was relatively raw coming out of USC, hadn’t had the classic quarterback training growing up in Orange County that a lot of others have (because he was a multisport athlete in high school) and played in a fairly simple system in college that allowed him to make the most of his athletic gifts.

This - along with the mess in NY - is what gives me the most optimism for this trade. And he's still so young with plenty of room to develop in the right conditions. I'll, as always, remain hopeful.

[MHS831]

Darnold will be one of the many interesting stories at QB in the NFL this year---aside from the 5-7 rookies, Goff, Wentz, Stafford, Tua, etc.

[Tbe]

As the article pointed out, Darnold was Plan D. 

We’re now ‘turning over every QB rock’. 

Not ideal, but it’s what we should be doing at this point. I’m prepared for this process to take years, but here’s to hoping it doesn’t.

I’m pleased they weren’t willing to trade the farm for the #3 pick. The team has too many needs.

[Mr. Scot]

Takeaways from this (extensive) article…

Both Fitterer and Rhule were fans of Darnold based on prior experiences. They were still extremely thorough, though. Both head coach and GM went through the film of Darnold’s entire Jets career as well as his college tape, and ultimately liked what they saw.

At the time of the initial contact, both teams were still in the early stages of their draft prospect evaluations. That’s why Joe Douglas said “keep in touch”, and of course they did.

(Side Note: The phone call story is pretty funny)

Having read again about how strongly the Panthers want to keep their picks in the first three rounds, I’m a tad dubious of the idea that the Panthers might trade up. Granted it’s still possible. I’m just not necessarily expecting it.

Similarly, the more I read, the less I believe we were ever willing to give up as much for Deshaun Watson as people theorized. Would we have traded for him? Absolutely. Would we have given up the kind of crazy, Herschel Walker 2.0 trade packages people were suggesting, though? Eeehhh, not so convinced on that point.

One more thing I’m not sold on: the idea that Darnold is a “just in case” deal. As mentioned, Rhule and Fitterer were already talking about Darnold right after the Stafford deal fell through / well before their draft prospect evaluations were very far along, and they were willing to go ahead and make the trade even then. Honestly, I think it’s quite possible that if Joe Douglas hadn’t wanted to wait, this trade might have come a lot sooner.

As to now, I know the possibility of taking a quarterback is still there and I get the rationale behind it, but count me in the crowd that hopes they don’t. Regardless of whether Darnold turns out to be “the guy” or not, there are lingering issues that it’s well past time we fixed.

And lastly, I know some of Darnold’s biggest critics are sick of hearing about Adam Gase, but Breer’s elaboration on what he said previously regarding Gase and Darnold just strengthens the case that Darnold’s years under Gase need to be taken with at least one, and probably several, grains of salt.

[joemac]

31 minutes ago, Mr. Scot said:

And just a little more about Darnold himself...

I do think there’s one thing everyone should know about Darnold before we move on. Really, there’s a pretty simple explanation for why he played like he did the last couple years—and that boils right down to fit. I don’t really know how sold Adam Gase ever was on Darnold (he preferred Baker Mayfield and Josh Allen ahead of the 2018 draft, when he was still in Miami), and I do think the result of that was that the Jets never bent quite enough to make their system work for him the last couple of years. It’s easy to blame Gase for that, and some of it is on him. But it’s also on those doing the hiring in 2019, who by then had to know the player, and how he’d fit the coach he was about to work under. Fact is, Darnold was relatively raw coming out of USC, hadn’t had the classic quarterback training growing up in Orange County that a lot of others have (because he was a multisport athlete in high school) and played in a fairly simple system in college that allowed him to make the most of his athletic gifts. Coming to the pros, he simply wasn’t ready to run a complex system—and that’s not to say he wouldn’t eventually be able to get there. It was at the point where I know it was suggested to the coaches that they take line calls and “Mike” points off of him and give those responsibilities to the center, to try and get Darnold playing faster. And it never happened. That’s also why I think the Shanahan system is seen as a good fit for Darnold—because that system takes much of the mental burden off the quarterback. So now, as I see it, it’ll be on Panthers OC Joe Brady to tailor his scheme in a way that works for Darnold. And prioritizing getting Darnold playing fast again would be a good place to start.

Yep.  I have a feeling that Joe Brady is going to scheme his ever-loving ass off next year, and in the process make Sam Darnold look like a million bucks.  Then Brady will become a Head Coach in the next offseason, and thats where the rubber really meets the road.  Gonna be an interesting next couple of years in Charlotte!

[run-run-pass-punt]

5 minutes ago, Tbe said:

As the article pointed out, Darnold was Plan D. 

We’re now ‘turning over every QB rock’.

Sometimes it's better to be lucky than good. Serendipity can be your friend at times.

Everything you plan seems to work out wrong, only for things to turn out right. Let's hope this is such a case.

[Soul Rebel]

I hope Fitts sees a prospect like Newman/Mond later in the draft as his Russell Wilson over Fields/Jones at 8. To take a beastly OT at 8 (or 15) would be huge. I love Fields and Lance, but after trading for Darnold, really hope we go OT (or perhaps Pitts if we are so lucky) in R1. 

[thefuzz]

After landing at 8, I firmly believe that Darnold was plan C, and A created a mess for itself, and B's price was just a bit too high.

Seems Fitts and Rhule really like Sam, seems Sam's personality and background will fit in with Charlotte, and the Panthers/Culture.

Writing on the wall for Sam to be the starter, Teddy to be cut or traded, and wouldn't surprise me at all to bring in a vet QB into the building.

Take the Tackle, and pray that Sam can be something...that's about where we are.

[Louie]

This was an excellent informative read! I am also hopeful Darnold can turn out to be a winning QB! Let's see what Brady can do with him.

[SetfreexX]

1) Fields or Lance falls to #8 -- take them, Sam is still a huge ''?'' adding a LT doesn't resolve the ''?'' that he is, don't pass on the talent that Fields / Lance possess + up to 5 years of QB play at that low of a cost, even if we exercise / have exercised Darnold's 5th year option, for a future QB needy team he'd be cheap if we had to deal. Then use the 2nd, and possibly the 3rd to trade back and add additional Day 2 & 3 picks. 

(We're in a great position to do that since we are at the top of each round)

2) If Fields or Lance fall to #5 or #6 -- Swap 1sts, and offer the third, and a future late pick; our 2nd is high enough to trade back this year and add a 3rd or early 4th back to keep our pick count at the same for 2021(7 picks)

3) No top tier QB's available -- Take BPA at #8, I'd be fine with using the 2nd round pick as bait to trade back to add an additional Day 2 pick and would use that to draft Mond / Newman, guys we know could use 1-2 seasons to develop. 

I'm not too big a fan of other options, though there are more, these are simply my preference. 

[top dawg]

Well, like I've said: there's really no desperation going on. They're just taking calculated swing (which doesn't necessarily stop at Darnold, if the right QB prospect falls). And honestly, I don't mind it one bit. They're hellbent on finding a franchise QB, and I can't blame them. They're also not going to give the farm away in that quest because we are still squarely in the middle of a rebuild, and it makes little sense to give up too much prized draft capital in a year that looks promising at areas if need. Next year, we'll presumably have less holes, and due to Fitt's proclivity to trade back, we may be able to get some of those picks back.