1st pick in fantasy football draft

[Peon Awesome]

I won the last place match for my fantasy football league last year and my consolation prize is the #1 pick in the draft this year. So I'm torn.  Do I go with...

A) Jonathan Taylor - #1 running back last year and consensus first pick in mocks. Consistent, no injury baggage, a great offensive line in Indy or

B) Christian McCaffrey - the most dominant fantasy football weapon when healthy, Panthers star, and now with hopefully improved qb and offensive line play that should only make him shine brighter.

My heart says CMC. My brain says Taylor. I want to go with my heart. Am I being stupid? Is this why I always lose?

Also do you draft DJ Moore a round early or take a later round flier on Robbie Anderson anticipating Baker takes them to the next level? I really need a win this year. I think I'm almost $300 in the hole.

[Rubi]

CMC higher risk higher reward 

[Frizzy350]

JT.

Love CMC and think hes a better player but Taylor's situation is significantly better.

[KSpan]

I took CMC in 2018 when Barkley was getting all the hype as the best ever and it worked out.

Does that help you? Not really. But how often can you legitimately draft a Panther #1 without it being a reach?

[Wolfcop]

If healthy, it is a no-brainer who to pick. I have CMC, so let's hope he does stay upright. 

[joemac]

I think CMC is going to stay healthy all year, have 2300 total yards, and score 20+ TDs.  So, if you think like me, CMC is a no-brainer. 

[ClawOn]

CMC.  Don't overdraft Moore.  Too many options at WR

[MasterAwesome]

Beta Ron Rivera would draft Jonathan Taylor.  Alpha Riverboat Ron would take CMC.  Do with that what you will.

[Shocker]

Taylor should be your #1 pick although if it were me I would seriously consider Derrick Henry.  CMC is too risky IMO.  Honestly go with Taylor he is the #1 pick in most drafts

Edited August 16, 2022 by Shocker

[hepcat]

Just to answer your question I'd definitely take Taylor and wouldn't even consider CMC #1 overall. To me, Jonathan Taylor is a safer pick because he doesn't have an injury-prone risk and he's younger. CMC probably isn't going to stay healthy for another full season for the rest of his career. If he's there at like 7 or lower I'd take him, but the risk is too high. You might get 7 or 8 games out of him. Maybe you get lucky, maybe he stays healthy, but I think those days are over. He's got an insane amount of wear and tear on this body from Stanford and the NFL, it's finally caught up to him.

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But to be honest I wouldn't want the #1 overall pick in this year's draft. I don't ever want it. I like having a pick in the back 5 of the round. 

There's always a good but not great player who comes in and has a career season and takes a team to a fantasy championship. That guy is almost never the #1 overall pick. Sometimes that reason is because of a change at QB, or coach. Sometimes the player just develops and has a career year because they got better and more experienced. Sometimes it's a player coming off an injury who is ready to have a career year in a contract year.

I try to draft guys who are definitely going to produce, but who have the potential to have a career season in the first round. Here's some examples this season. 

Justin Jefferson is unreal and I honestly think he's worthy of the #1 overall pick. He has taken a step up from his rookie to second season, has the same QB situation, but upgraded in coaching with Kevin O'Connell. I think the Vikings offense might light it up this season. I also like Dalvin Cook this season.

I think Najee Harris might make a leap. I'm surprised he's not being talked about at like #3 or #4 overall. Pittsburgh's QB situation is shaky and Harris might get a TON of volume. Doesn't mean his yardage and TDs will be there, but he's going to get the ball a LOT for sure.

Ekeler could have a massive season if he stays healthy (PPR league only). They have a good offensive line and Ekeler always produces.

Jamarr Chase had an unreal rookie season and I see no reason why he shouldn't continue that in Year 2 if he stays healthy. Burrow and Chase have obvious chemistry.

Just some examples of guys who might make another step up and be that fantasy #1 guy who leads your team to a championship. There's a couple guys like that every year and the trick is taking a swing on a couple guys who have potential to have a huge career year, not guys on the back end of their career hoping to reclaim past glory (cough cough CMC, Zeke Elliott, etc)

 

[Shocker]

Round 2 if you can draft Kupp,  grab Stafford later in the draft and you can milk that combo for big rewards

Edited August 16, 2022 by Shocker

[KSpan]

2 minutes ago, Shocker said:

Later on if you can draft Kupp and then Stafford you can milk that combo for big rewards

Assuming Stafford's elbow doesn't retire first.

[Shocker]

6 minutes ago, KSpan said:

Assuming Stafford's elbow doesn't retire first.

He is a fairly late round QB and will probably have a big year on that team.  It’s all luck with injuries much of the time.

I like taking players from teams that should win a lot of games since they are more likely to produce throughout the season

Edited August 16, 2022 by Shocker

[Billy Love]

Taylor all day.