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Probability Analysis of the Burns and DJ decision

Evil Hurney

By Evil Hurney,
in Carolina Panthers

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Wundrbread33 Grand Master

Wundrbread33

Posted
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1 hour ago, trueblade said:

"Pro bowl" is also fairly derided each year as not that great of a metric with obvious snubs and obvious players making it who shouldn't.

Absolutely agree there: I think they were just using it is a measurable thing even though I hate how bullshit it is too. Solid is tougher to measure. 
 

And as @MasterAwesome pointed out, DJ isn’t even a pro bowler even though many of us value him. Kind of throws a wrench in there. 
 

I feel like this happens with most stats analysis poo 😆.

 

I still appreciate the effort. It’s more than what most of us do. 

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Martin Grand Master

Martin

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I get the salary Burns will demand, and the wide range of opinions on him. 

But what surprises me is how easy everyone think it is to replace him and DJ in the draft. There are a huge number of disappointments and underachievers/busts in the first round every year. It is not just a case of just picking an equally good player. 

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Toomers Mentor

Toomers

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1 minute ago, frankw said:

We can see two years into the future now?

 Well. A team currently 3-5 with their QB in the concussion protocol with an already anemic offense. Aging players, little to no cap and no 1st next year. I can make the case they will be that low much easier than them becoming a playoff team again. 

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run-run-pass-punt Rising Star

run-run-pass-punt

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One thing that doesn't really resonate with me in regards to modern sporting trends is the idea that everything can be reduced to a formula, to math / analytics.

Those things have their place, but instinct and intuition (if well honed) are often superior forms of navigating life's problems.

That preference aside, I think a rebuilding team would do well to accumulate as many assets as possible, both in terms of draft potential (picks) as well as cap space (not overpaying for anyone while in a rebuild) to allow for flexibility in said rebuild. I love what Burns and DJ do well, but I'd have unloaded them...if the reported return is accurate.  But that's water under the bridge.

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frankw Grand Master

frankw

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1 minute ago, Toomers said:

 Well. A team currently 3-5 with their QB in the concussion protocol with an already anemic offense. Aging players, little to no cap and no 1st next year. I can make the case they will be that low much easier than them becoming a playoff team again. 

It hinges on Sean McVay more than anything. He almost won a second Super Bowl with Jared Goff and Brandin Cooks. If he exits your assumption is a much safer bet.

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SmokinwithWilly Grand Master

SmokinwithWilly

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If Brian Burns was Julius Peppers, LT, Aaron Donald, I'd say that the offer wasn't enough. He's good. He's Pro Bowl. He's not single handedly wrecking an entire offense. You have to look at the big picture over the next 3 years. A high teens 2nd this year, a likely 10-20 pick, possibly higher, the next 2, $30m per year in cap space to sign other players or a pro bowl DE/LB depending on scheme. I think you have to look beyond Burns and evaluate the best way to build the team moving forward. Fitts should have pulled the trigger. 

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mrcompletely11 Grand Master

mrcompletely11

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22 minutes ago, Toomers said:

 Well. A team currently 3-5 with their QB in the concussion protocol with an already anemic offense. Aging players, little to no cap and no 1st next year. I can make the case they will be that low much easier than them becoming a playoff team again. 

With their best player and coach openly contemplating retirement and a team deep deep in salary cap hell

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frankw Grand Master

frankw

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6 minutes ago, stbugs said:

I keep seeing this. He also had a healthy studly Todd Gurley and in addition to Cooks, they had Woods and Kupp. They also most importantly had a solid OL that was healthy 94% of snap counts was the lowest of the 5 OL starters. McVay wasn’t exactly making a diamond from poo. They had a solid and healthy OL with really good RBs and WRs.

Of course the roster is different and they will undergo more changes in the upcoming offseason too. I'm not saying McVay is a magician but the Rams have added some significant talent the last few years and they just signed their GM to an extension who has been a big part of that talent infusion. They are going to do everything they can to be competitive. Just because we want their picks doesn't mean all rational logic goes out the window.

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mrcompletely11 Grand Master

mrcompletely11

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2 minutes ago, frankw said:

Of course the roster is different and they will undergo more changes in the upcoming offseason too. I'm not saying McVay is a magician but the Rams have added some significant talent the last few years and they just signed their GM to an extension who has been a big part of that talent infusion. They are going to do everything they can to be competitive. Just because we want their picks doesn't mean all rational logic goes out the window.

They can try to do everything they want to be competitive but they are shackled with no draft picks and no cap room and a roster of a bunch of old players.    

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Toomers Mentor

Toomers

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1 minute ago, frankw said:

Of course the roster is different and they will undergo more changes in the upcoming offseason too. I'm not saying McVay is a magician but the Rams have added some significant talent the last few years and they just signed their GM to an extension who has been a big part of that talent infusion. They are going to do everything they can to be competitive. Just because we want their picks doesn't mean all rational logic goes out the window.

We have given you many reasons why they could be average or lower. Your rational logic pins it’s hopes on McVay magic. If he’s even there. 

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AU-panther Mentor

AU-panther

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4 hours ago, Evil Hurney said:

There's been a lot of digital ink spilled over the non-trades of Brian Burns and DJ Moore. The alleged total compensation was 3 1st-round picks and 1 2nd-round pick for the pair. I was curious what probability said regarding the decision.

Assumptions:

  • We can spend all the picks at the same time and neglect the year of the draft pick (some were way off in the future making them less valuable)
  • Burns and DJ are considered Pro Bowl caliber players; Note that I didn't say All Pro, which is a higher bar
  • A 1st round pick becomes a Pro Bowler 44% of the time; Keep in mind WRs and DL have been shown to hit at a much lower rate
  • A 2nd round pick becomes a Pro Bower 18% of the time

Background:

I am going to model this using a probability tree where we are essentially rolling a dice for each pick. We have 3 dice weighted for a 1st-round pick (44% success) and 1 dice weighted for a 2nd-round pick (18% success). Once we have 2 success we stop rolling and collect the profit (the extra picks).

Results:

image.png.ce0ab436516abfc33fadeba023085c02.png

Takeaway:

Within this context the Panthers made the right decision. They have a 41% chance of profiting off the trade (big or small gain) compared to a 52% chance of losing on the trade (big or small loss).

Your methodology is flawed, you have to account for the cap savings.

What's the chance of getting a pro bowler with $25-#30m? 80%? 90%?  The picks are almost just bonus.

 

 

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frankw Grand Master

frankw

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18 minutes ago, Toomers said:

We have given you many reasons why they could be average or lower. Your rational logic pins it’s hopes on McVay magic. If he’s even there. 

The original post in question said they were "almost sure to be" bad enough for a top 16 pick. Now you are saying they "could" be average. That's a more reasonable distinction and I agree.

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