Dane Brugler's 2023 Draft Guide a.k.a. "The Beast"

[OldhamA]

17 minutes ago, Jackie Lee said:

Anyone else think Bryce's parents are like overly clingy? They literally moved to Alabama just to be around him for college?

Tua's parents did that too - part of the Alabama offer I assume. 

[MHS831]

5 minutes ago, Icege said:

This is why, in my heart, I knew that the move to #1 was to take Max Duggan. 

I said it first at a dinner party.

1. 5 Edge players ranked in the top 21.  I think the Panthers might trade back from #39 if Ojulari is not there.  Reason?  If they want an Edge, You would have Felix, McDonald IV, White, Hall, and Foskey between #44 and #60. 

2. CBs Juluis Brentz (K state)  and Corey Trice (Purdue) are good fits and could be available with pick 93.  I worry that there could be 2 lingering at #39 that could tempt the Panthers--Ringo and Forbes.  My preference is to wait until day three and draft Terrell Smith.

3. If you really want a TE from this draft with the third rounder, take Luke Schoonmaker.  He will be a solid starter in this league.  He is a sleeper because he played behind one of the best TEs in the NCAA at Michigan, but he was still able to post decent stats. If not,  Brenton Strange (Penn State) would be the TE I would target --https://www.nfl.com/prospects/brenton-strange/32005354-5218-8631-c965-3e23bcc23565

4,  If you look at the WRs between #76 and #86, it is reasonable to expect one to drop to 93.  We have already had contact with Mingo.

So, based on this list, here is what I would do: 

Pick 39:  If Quentin Johnson (WR) and BJ Ojulari (Edge) drop, I think the Panthers take that player.  If not, I think they might consider CBs Forbes or Ringo.  Personally, I want an edge in the second round, so I trade back in round 2 and take an Edge like Hall or McDonald IV.  I would then (possibly) move up from #93 to make sure I grabbed a WR--Mims, Rice, or Mingo.

Sleeper I would grab in round 4 (you heard it here first):  CB Terell Smith (Minnesota). https://www.nfl.com/prospects/terell-smith/3200534d-4973-9042-a2e5-7a611c3c3214

So what would I do if the draft were today and I was given the job?

1.  Bryce Young.  51% sure.

39.  Assuming no player is there that would make me jump, I would try to trade back about 15 spots to about #54, adding a third round selection (somewhere around #85).  With the 54th pick, I would take Edge Derrick Hall or Will McDonald IV.

85.  From that spot, I am really eyeing WR because I like a few who should be on the board--Mimms, Mingo, and my favorite, Rice. I throw in my fifth rounder if necessary to move up to take Mims or Rice.

93.  Brenton Strange, TE Penn State. 

114.  Offensive line depth--I would hope that USC Guard (with Tackle ability) Andrew Vorhees would drop due to the injury he is rehabbing.   He would be ready to start in a year or two.

132.  Terell Smith, CB Minnesota

 

[Jackie Lee]

This was incredibly easy to download for free fyi

[Icege]

18 minutes ago, Bear Hands said:

Something I find pretty interesting is the shear volume of EDGE & CBs graded as 2nd-4th rounders.   There's a lot.  

At EDGE, Nick Hampton, Isaiah McGuire, Byron Young & KJ Henry all seem quite interesting.  Really like McGuire.  That first pick in R4 could have some nice players available.  

Garrett Williams and Darius Rush are a few of the CBs with some nice write-ups.    

 

Nick Hampton was popping up on stat sheets all year and Byron Young looked impressive at the combine.

I'm a Clemson fan and have been high on KJ Henry all season. He was the definition of "do your job." With the move to a 3-4 I'm not so certain now, but I like him over YGM at least?

Williams had a rough season it seemed, but man did Rush come on

[Mr. Scot]

Downloaded...

[mickeye76]

20 minutes ago, Bear Hands said:

Something I find pretty interesting is the shear volume of EDGE & CBs graded as 2nd-4th rounders.   There's a lot.  

At EDGE, Nick Hampton, Isaiah McGuire, Byron Young & KJ Henry all seem quite interesting.  Really like McGuire.  That first pick in R4 could have some nice players available.  

Garrett Williams and Darius Rush are a few of the CBs with some nice write-ups.    

 

Those positions are the meat and potatoes of this draft. I've been pushing hard against a few folks on here that prefer a WR or TE at that 39th pick. The options and values point to CB or Edge in the 2nd. 

This draft guide sounds awesome.  

[Bear Hands]

Just now, MHS831 said:

I said it first at a dinner party.

1. 5 Edge players ranked in the top 21.  I think the Panthers might trade back from #39 if Ojulari is not there.  Reason?  If they want an Edge, You would have Felix, McDonald IV, White, Hall, and Foskey between #44 and #60. 

2. CBs Juluis Brentz (K state)  and Corey Trice (Purdue) are good fits and could be available with pick 93.  I worry that there could be 2 lingering at #39 that could tempt the Panthers--Ringo and Forbes.  My preference is to wait until day three and draft Terrell Smith.

3. If you really want a TE from this draft with the third rounder, take Luke Schoonmaker.  He will be a solid starter in this league.  He is a sleeper because he played behind one of the best TEs in the NCAA at Michigan, but he was still able to post decent stats. If not,  Brenton Strange (Penn State) would be the TE I would target --https://www.nfl.com/prospects/brenton-strange/32005354-5218-8631-c965-3e23bcc23565

4,  If you look at the WRs between #76 and #86, it is reasonable to expect one to drop to 93.  We have already had contact with Mingo.

So, based on this list, here is what I would do: 

Pick 39:  If Quentin Johnson (WR) and BJ Ojulari (Edge) drop, I think the Panthers take that player.  If not, I think they might consider CBs Forbes or Ringo.  Personally, I want an edge in the second round, so I trade back in round 2 and take an Edge like Hall or McDonald IV.  I would then (possibly) move up from #93 to make sure I grabbed a WR--Mims, Rice, or Mingo.

Sleeper I would grab in round 4 (you heard it here first):  CB Terell Smith (Minnesota). https://www.nfl.com/prospects/terell-smith/3200534d-4973-9042-a2e5-7a611c3c3214

So what would I do if the draft were today and I was given the job?

1.  Bryce Young.  51% sure.

39.  Assuming no player is there that would make me jump, I would try to trade back about 15 spots to about #54, adding a third round selection (somewhere around #85).  With the 54th pick, I would take Edge Derrick Hall or Will McDonald IV.

85.  From that spot, I am really eyeing WR because I like a few who should be on the board--Mimms, Mingo, and my favorite, Rice. I throw in my fifth rounder if necessary to move up to take Mims or Rice.

93.  Brenton Strange, TE Penn State. 

114.  Offensive line depth--I would hope that USC Guard (with Tackle ability) Andrew Vorhees would drop due to the injury he is rehabbing.   He would be ready to start in a year or two.

132.  Terell Smith, CB Minnesota

 

100000% agree on Schoonmaker. Have been a big fan of his throughout this whole process.

Big fan of Rice & Mingo as well. 

39 is the one giving me trouble because I see similar value until pick 50ish.  A trade idea I find rather compelling is with GB.

If there's a guy they absolutely want, I'd do a 39+93 for 45+78 (+maybe a late round 2024 pick).  That right there is a solid potential swap situation.  

 

 

[Bear Hands]

A spot I think a lot are bypassing bc of starters being set is having one more OL for depth, particularly tackle. 

Braeden Daniels or Jaelyn Duncan are two in the 4th-6th to look out for.  We have a situation where we could really teach up with the guys we have, helping set ourselves up for a smooth transition post-Moton, which could happen in 2-3 years.    

 

[MHS831]

33 minutes ago, Bear Hands said:

Something I find pretty interesting is the shear volume of EDGE & CBs graded as 2nd-4th rounders.   There's a lot.  

At EDGE, Nick Hampton, Isaiah McGuire, Byron Young & KJ Henry all seem quite interesting.  Really like McGuire.  That first pick in R4 could have some nice players available.  

Garrett Williams and Darius Rush are a few of the CBs with some nice write-ups.    

 

That is why I want to wait until the third or fourth to address CB--

[MHS831]

4 minutes ago, Bear Hands said:

A spot I think a lot are bypassing bc of starters being set is having one more OL for depth, particularly tackle. 

Braeden Daniels or Jaelyn Duncan are two in the 4th-6th to look out for.  We have a situation where we could really teach up with the guys we have, helping set ourselves up for a smooth transition post-Moton, which could happen in 2-3 years.    

 

What do you know about Lamel Coleman?  He was a day 3 draft pick out of UMass and the Panthers signed him from the Dolphins practice squad during the season.  Not to say he will eventually start, but is he that depth swing OT everyone seems to be looking for these days? Without a preseason, we have not seen or discussed him. 

I would hate to pull Christensen out of LG to move him outside, making us weaker at 2 positions should a OT get banged up.  (Wharton used to be that guy, and I did not like it then).  Of course, as happy as I have been with Mays--it could work.

 

[WUnderhill]

41 minutes ago, Jackie Lee said:

Anyone else think Bryce's parents are like overly clingy? They literally moved to Alabama just to be around him for college?

Man, if my kid is in line to make my family wealthy for generations, I’m staying in their dorm, waking them up for workouts, doing all their homework so they can study football, holding their hands and smacking beers away at parties, vetting all potential girlfriends making sure they’re on board with football first, driving them to practice, you name it.

[Bear Hands]

14 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

What do you know about Lamel Coleman?  He was a day 3 draft pick out of UMass and the Panthers signed him from the Dolphins practice squad during the season.  Not to say he will eventually start, but is he that depth swing OT everyone seems to be looking for these days? Without a preseason, we have not seen or discussed him. 

I would hate to pull Christensen out of LG to move him outside, making us weaker at 2 positions should a OT get banged up.  (Wharton used to be that guy, and I did not like it then).  Of course, as happy as I have been with Mays--it could work.

 

I won't act like I know Coleman much, not a dude I've known well.  Great length and size.  Funny enough, his comp on NFL.com is our former Dennis Daley.  Who was actually starting LT for the Titans last year as crazy as it sounds.  

Quote

"He's one of those guys you kind of start to like and you fight for him in your draft meetings and then he's starting for you in a couple of years." -- Offensive line coach for AFC team (per nfl.com)

Seems like it's Mays, McCray, Coleman, Brown, & Tecklenberg as our primary depth. Definitely could use some talent with their little experience.  

If Moton misses time, we don't have an ideal guy to slide in.  Brady can backup Icky.  Mays can play all 4 non-LT spots but you want him fixed on just a few for future development.  McCray seems like a OG.  Would be nice to identify a Right Tackle type.  

Edited April 10, 2023 by Bear Hands

[Luciu5]

1 hour ago, Jackie Lee said:

This was incredibly easy to download for free fyi

???? It's password protected. Is the password 'password' or something dumb like that?

 

Nevermind. 

Edited April 10, 2023 by Luciu5

[rayzor]

i'd like to end up with both Ringo and Mingo.