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Is our defense overated?

AU-panther

By AU-panther,
in Carolina Panthers

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AU-panther Mentor

AU-panther

Posted
Posted

For all of the people who are singing the praises of our DC, what are you basing it on?

Yard per game?  Granted we are 3rd best in the league

NFL Football Stats - NFL Team Opponent Yards per Game | TeamRankings.com

but, what about points per game?  We are 29th.  We were actually better during the Rhule/Snow years.

NFL Football Stats - NFL Team Opponent Points per Game | TeamRankings.com

What about some of the advanced metrics that take into account your opponent and how your own offense is affecting your defense.

DVOA:  We are 27th.

Total Team DVOA - NFL Football Stats (ftnfantasy.com)

EPA: roughly bottom third

NFL EPA Tiers | nfelo.app (nfeloapp.com)

 

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TN05 Mentor

TN05

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We're realistically a middle-of-the-road to borderline top ten defense. The yards and points stats are likely both inflated in opposite directions.

Our offense is bad. It turns the ball over, and frequently punts, giving defenses short fields. This means offenses don't need to move the ball much on us to score (hence the low yards), but the fact our defense is on the field so much is likely due to that bad offense. The Saints game a week ago was a good example of this - defense played great, but you can only defend against short fields for so long.

However, it's also worth noting most of our truly bad defensive games were before the bye. We've only allowed more than 30 points once since the bye as compared to 3 times before it.

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LinvilleGorge Grand Master

LinvilleGorge

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If anyone is arguing we're a top 5 defense or even top 10, then yeah it's overrated. But I don't think many are arguing that. I think most have us somewhere in the middle of the pack which feels about right. Our yards are skewed to our benefit likely because teams are fairly conservative against us knowing we aren't gonna score much. Our points allowed are skewed against us likely because our anemic offense means we're consistently losing the field position battle. 

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mav1234 Grand Master

mav1234

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I think our defense is extremely good all things considered (that is, in context with injuries and our offense lol), but we're lacking a real pass rush (ironic) and somehow have a really good secondary (weird), and we don't have the kind of players yet for a good run defense. The short field and frequent turnovers on the part of our O are a big, big reason our yardage is so low - but it's also why our scoring D is so bad.

I think this is a case where advanced stats aren't really telling the whole story.

I think Evero has done an amazing job in a single season.

edit: For context, I'd say we are probably some place between 10 and 15 or so as a defense. I don't think we're elite, but our defense is good enough to keep us in games.

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AU-panther Mentor

AU-panther

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8 minutes ago, TN05 said:

We're realistically a middle-of-the-road to borderline top ten defense. The yards and points stats are likely both inflated in opposite directions.

Our offense is bad. It turns the ball over, and frequently punts, giving defenses short fields. This means offenses don't need to move the ball much on us to score (hence the low yards), but the fact our defense is on the field so much is likely due to that bad offense. The Saints game a week ago was a good example of this - defense played great, but you can only defend against short fields for so long.

However, it's also worth noting most of our truly bad defensive games were before the bye. We've only allowed more than 30 points once since the bye as compared to 3 times before it.

Borderline top ten?  based on what?  outside of yards per game we are bad at every other metric.

We turn the ball over?  How much compared to other teams?  You make it sound like it more than most.  Its not.  We are actually 11th in the league in turnovers given.  That actually helps our defense.

NFL Football Stats - NFL Team Giveaways per Game | TeamRankings.com

Also metrics like DVOA and EPA actually factor in turnovers and offensive performance.

 

 

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AU-panther Mentor

AU-panther

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2 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

If anyone is arguing we're a top 5 defense or even top 10, then yeah it's overrated. But I don't think many are arguing that. I think most have us somewhere in the middle of the pack which feels about right. Our yards are skewed to our benefit likely because teams are fairly conservative against us knowing we aren't gonna score much. Our points allowed are skewed against us likely because our anemic offense means we're consistently losing the field position battle. 

Even if it was "middle of the pack" results should we be considering that DC for HC job?

Also, DVOA and EPA consider the field potion battle.

 

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BrianS Veteran

BrianS

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This is a silly argument honestly.  There is only one stat that matters on defense:  Points.  If you give up 500 yards per game but only give up 10 points per game, are you the #1 defense?  I don't even see it as a legit question.  Of course you are.

It's all about points surrendered.  Other stats might help you figure out WHY you are giving up points - for example if opposing teams average 5+ yards per rush attempt, you might look at that and go "Oh, we need to tighten up our run defense or teams are just going to grind it down our throat".  But it's not going to tell you the story of how good your defense really is.

Points per game is the stat that tells you how good your defense is.

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PappyMay Mentor

PappyMay

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take away Bryce's pick 6's and we are closer to the middle of the pack with scoring defense. and with how bad our offense is and them being out there all the time and the injuries They've done about as good as could be expected of them. 2-4 at home this year so hope to win one of them!

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mav1234 Grand Master

mav1234

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Our opponents have something like the best or second best starting field position in the league. It's a HUGE reason why our defense looks bad in scoring - We are the worst in yards per point, because fields are so short.  When you have a bad rush D like we do, that is exacerbated.  Despite that, we've got some things in our favor - Our defense's third own stop rate is something like top 10 in the league. We're top ten in yards per play. We've got a very good passing defense across a number of metrics.

Evero doesn't have all the players for his scheme and despite injuries he's done a good job IMO.  The reason I'd consider him for HC is because of that - because he is making it work despite a far-from-perfect situation. I'm not saying you give it to him outright, and perhaps we will have better candidates, but he's making it work decently well with limited options.

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