Restocking with just Pick #39?

[Jon Snow]

23 minutes ago, top dawg said:

Where are you getting this? I've looked over information that seems to be always dated (I guess because the sample rate has to be over time), and 33 percent seems extremely low from what I've read. 

He's pretty much right. The draft is a crap shoot and you better know what you're doing and getting when you pick these guys. The odds are not good after round 1 and round round hasn't been very good. Especially in the past decade when colleges are changing who and how they develop the players. The players are requiring much more development at the pro level than in the past and it's showing. 

[MrBubba]

I actually believe they will trade down from 33 to maybe midround and pick up third round pick.  Of course it will depend on who falls into second.  

[top dawg]

20 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

He's pretty much right. The draft is a crap shoot and you better know what you're doing and getting when you pick these guys. The odds are not good after round 1 and round round hasn't been very good. Especially in the past decade when colleges are changing who and how they develop the players. The players are requiring much more development at the pro level than in the past and it's showing. 

The frst round isn't a lock either

https://phillycovercorner.com/2023/04/first-round-draft-success-rates-who-could-be-risky-in-the-2023-draft/

 

There really isn't recent data from what I've been able to find. Some of the most recent stats are only in reference to fantasy football, and I sure ain't using that.

From my research, it's just hard to say. It depends upon what standard they're using (which tsome that I've seen used is if you sign a second contract, or sign a second contract with your team, or become a starter). I've seen some things that say more than 50 percent of first round picks bust.

I'll just say that It's throwing darts. The more skilled you are, the more you'll hit. I certainly don't think that moving down in the second necessarily precludes you from getting a legit player. 

[Jon Snow]

3 minutes ago, top dawg said:

The frst round isn't a lock either

https://phillycovercorner.com/2023/04/first-round-draft-success-rates-who-could-be-risky-in-the-2023-draft/

 

There really isn't recent data from what I've been able to find. Some of the most recent stats are only in reference to fantasy football, and I sure ain't using that.

From my research, it's just hard to say. It depends upon what standard they're using (which tsome that I've seen used is if you sign a second contract, or sign a second contract with your team, or become a starter). I've seen some things that say more than 50 percent of first round picks bust.

I'll just say that It's throwing darts. The more skilled you are, the more you'll hit. I certainly don't think that moving down in the second necessarily precludes you from getting a legit player. 

No it doesn't. It just removes a group of players to take a shot on. You may have more picks but it's from lower rated prospects further down the board. It's a gamble either way.

[Adb6368]

Trading down for value seems like the right choice with our current roster. 

however, this trade shouldn’t happen until the end of day1 of the draft. See how things play out and we then have a full night to look at our board. If the board falls favorable, make the trade. If it doesn’t, stick where you are and pull the trigger. We need to guarantee getting 2 starters from the second round. How that happens I’ll leave it up to them. 

[Panthero]

Guys if you have a 16% hit rate, having multiple picks at that rate is not a joint probability. That's means each roll is completely independent of the other. In short, go after the high picks. I wouldn't even use 4th through 7th picks. would just trade them away for getting proven vets. 

[CRA]

I could get down with this 

 

[Jon Snow]

Just now, Panthero said:

Guys if you have a 16% hit rate, having multiple picks at that rate is not a joint probability. That's means each roll is completely independent of the other. In short, go after the high picks. I wouldn't even use 4th through 7th picks. would just trade them away for getting proven vets. 

That's a good strategy if you have a deep team. If you are thin everywhere its a little risky to limit your options IMO. 

[Shocker]

3 hours ago, Tbe said:

Some browns fan crunched the numbers on 20 years of draft data. NFL wide…not browns specific.

https://247sports.com/nfl/cleveland-browns/Board/105323/Contents/odds-of-becoming-a-quality-player-in-the-nfl-by-draft-round-211678773/#:~:text=1st round - about 50% of,3rd round - about 16%.

I’ve seen it broken down by position too. Some positions have higher success rates than others.

This is the only source I can find right now.

https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/2/20/8072877/what-the-statistics-tell-us-about-the-draft-by-round

So by this logic we have 66% chance of hitting on one of those 2nds.

LOL, not really

[Tbe]

3 minutes ago, Shocker said:

So by this logic we have 66% chance of hitting on one of those 2nds.

LOL, not really

It’s less. The probabilities are independent.

I asked chat gpt. It’s a 55% chance of landing at least one solid long term starter from those two picks.

If you use this data. 

[AggieLean]

Keep the picks we have, and pick right where we’re at. We need quality.