ARTICLE: Rams paid a big price in trade with Panthers to move up 13 spots for Braden Fiske

[MHS831]

1 hour ago, mrcompletely11 said:

this is such a bullshit rationale that is fed from GM's.  A future second is worth exactly a future 2nd for a franchise.  It may not be apples to apples in regards to gm as they may not be choosing.  But there is no negative value assign for trading picks in the future.  It makes no sense to try and devalue.  If so then you would see the adverse affect in play

I agree, but that is the widely held "unspoken rule."  Just to give the matter more perspectives than ours--I see it as an investment for next year--part of the current long term plan.  When negotiating, however, people want it NOW and it has that value now.  But we wanted it for 2025, so it will have second round value to us.  If I were making a trade and the Seahawks offered a second right now and the Rams offered a second the following year, of course--all things equal--the Seahawk offer is the better offer because I can use it immediately. 

It could be that these GMs value now more than next season because their jobs are on the line now--if they do not get results, the second rounder belongs to the next GM--I don't know--but to your point, the player is going to be the same player--the value is not on the talent, it is on the timing of the talent.  Just spitballing.

[mrcompletely11]

6 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

I agree, but that is the widely held "unspoken rule."  Just to give the matter more perspectives than ours--I see it as an investment for next year--part of the current long term plan.  When negotiating, however, people want it NOW and it has that value now.  But we wanted it for 2025, so it will have second round value to us.  If I were making a trade and the Seahawks offered a second right now and the Rams offered a second the following year, of course--all things equal--the Seahawk offer is the better offer because I can use it immediately. 

It could be that these GMs value now more than next season because their jobs are on the line now--if they do not get results, the second rounder belongs to the next GM--I don't know--but to your point, the player is going to be the same player--the value is not on the talent, it is on the timing of the talent.  Just spitballing.

so is that first from the rams in 24 still devalued? 

[LegioX]

7 hours ago, ForJimmy said:

This is getting overlooked IMO. It was a great trade and we still got the player we wanted in Brooks. It’s nice to be on this side of a trade for once…

Yes, because I’m tired of hearing how Chicago is going to be the best franchise in the history of the NFL after using out #1 pick to draft Caleb.

[CPcavedweller]

17 hours ago, KSpan said:

It felt exactly like the 2021 draft to me, and even the positions selected were almost exactly the same. Time will tell of course but it was certainly not anything all that different

They've hit on their lower picks and been trading their 1sts for proven star vets. It would be a different story if their later picks weren't working and not every team could pull it off, but they've worked it for sure. 

It felt different because Tepper wasn’t involved and our head coach isn’t an egomaniac. 
 

The positions may have been the same but the grades of each player at the positions were not. 

[KSpan]

10 minutes ago, CPcavedweller said:

It felt different because Tepper wasn’t involved and our head coach isn’t an egomaniac. 
 

The positions may have been the same but the grades of each player at the positions were not. 

You certainly can't prove the first point right now, and obviously the players were selected in different order. However, to your second point the overall 'grades' (put as much stock in these as you like) are the same or even a little worse in 2024 than 2021.

2021 draft 'grades': Grades for the Carolina Panthers 2021 Draft Class

2024 draft 'grades': Final Grades: How the national publications see the Panthers 2024 draft class

Edited April 30, 2024 by KSpan

[PNW_PantherMan]

14 hours ago, MHS831 said:

It could be that these GMs value now more than next season because their jobs are on the line now--if they do not get results, the second rounder belongs to the next GM--I don't know--but to your point, the player is going to be the same player--the value is not on the talent, it is on the timing of the talent.  Just spitballing.

Thats exactly it.  The NFL stands for not for long.  The vast majority of NFL front offices discount future picks because they have to have success or they lose their jobs.

Nobody is doing the 76ers strategy of tanking for 5 years to accumulate picks in the NFL.  I mean think about it.  You want to wait 3-5 years to find out that the guy stockpiling all the picks doesn’t know how to use them?

[CPcavedweller]

5 hours ago, KSpan said:

You certainly can't prove the first point right now, and obviously the players were selected in different order. However, to your second point the overall 'grades' (put as much stock in these as you like) are the same or even a little worse in 2024 than 2021.

2021 draft 'grades': Grades for the Carolina Panthers 2021 Draft Class

2024 draft 'grades': Final Grades: How the national publications see the Panthers 2024 draft class

I don't care what "draft grades" are from the media. Just like I don't care about recruiting rankings when looking at college football. 

[KSpan]

2 hours ago, CPcavedweller said:

I don't care what "draft grades" are from the media. Just like I don't care about recruiting rankings when looking at college football. 

That's a large part of what a lot of that stuff is based on, so you're arguing semantics here. I will say that the team appears to actually be going after a player archetype but no, other than that it's pretty equivalent. 

[MHS831]

On 4/29/2024 at 7:03 PM, mrcompletely11 said:

so is that first from the rams in 24 still devalued? 

You are acting like I made up this rule. 

I did not.  I am simply informed about the existence of it while you want to discuss the righteousness of it. 

Here it is, in chart form:

[MHS831]

Here it is in table form by round:

In this table, we are once again looking for the values closest to 100% (equal value). I have calculated percentage discounts from 40% to 60% in 5% increments. At the bottom, you can see the overall percentages.

Here are the closest results:

First Round: 60% discount
Second: 55%
Third: 60%
Fourth: 40%
Fifth: 10% (not shown)
Sixth: 60%
Seventh: Only 2 trades. Not a large enough sample size.

Overall: 55% discount on future picks.

[tukafan21]

Future picks are also valued less because you don't know where they'll fall in the round, so you almost have to make the trade assuming it will end up falling in the 25-32 pick of the round and if it's any better, then it's a nice bonus.

Combine that with the fact that a GM never knows if they'll still have the job, plus they would know the exact player they would be getting with the current pick, and it's pretty easy to see why future picks are valued less than a current year.

A bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush

Edited May 1, 2024 by tukafan21

[OldhamA]

On 4/30/2024 at 1:13 AM, LegioX said:

Yes, because I’m tired of hearing how Chicago is going to be the best franchise in the history of the NFL after using out #1 pick to draft Caleb.

We did supercharge their rebuild with our incompetence.

[Jon Snow]

33 minutes ago, OldhamA said:

We did supercharge their rebuild with our incompetence.

Fitterer got schooled by the Bears. Dan better have been paying attention while that was going down. It's a lesson in what NOT to do when building a team. 

[Navy_football]

On 4/29/2024 at 3:28 PM, WarPanthers89 said:

It is crazy how they don’t care at all about high draft picks and have been successful. 

It's crazy how you don't need a team full of ringers if you can actually coach.