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Week 10 opponent - NY Giants


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What are the key matchups, predictions, or keys to victory?

Please post here.  Here's how I see it by position

QB - even

RB - advantage Panthers

WR - slight advantage to Giants (Malik Nabers is a beast, others not so much)

TE  - adv. Panthers

OL - adv. Panthers

DL - adv Giants

LB - slight adv. Giants 

CB - adv Panthers

S - even

This is a 50/50 chance of victory in my view, but somehow the Giants are favored by 5 

 

 

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I think the difference maker will be our O-line vs their D-line. Their defense has the most sacks at 35 for the year. Our O-line is banged up, and if Bryce plays, he does very poorly with pressure. I do expect Bryce to struggle. Our defense can't stop anyone, even a bad Daniel Jones will be enough to score points on our D. Honestly, I'm not surprised that Giants are favored. 

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I think this is spot on.  The difference, in my opinion, is QB.  In 2022, Jones was QB 9 and Daboll and the Giants seemed like they were back.  A decent OL, good WRs, and a solid Running game.  In 2023, the Giants had some injuries to the OL and it was terrible--worse than our OL.  WRs were terrible.  No real TE. Barkley was it.  Jones was pressured from the pocket as much as Bryce Young and Fields. This season, Jones is QB 7 in the NFL when throwing from a clean pocket; during the offseason, Shoen tried to revamp the OL like we did and instead of going after a QB in the draft, decided WR was a bigger need and drafted Nabers, hoping the OL improvement and the stud WR would make Jones better.  But they lost the running game (Barkley).  A few OL injuries here and there and a bit of underperformance, and Jones is facing new demons--nobody is afraid of Tracy or Singletary, NY's top 2 running backs--even if you include their receiving yardage--they cannot best Barkley's rushing yards alone in Philly.  All that to make 2 points:

  • Jones is a top 7 QB (according to the stats) when throwing from a clean pocket.  The Panthers are 32nd in the league in the area of pressuring the passer. 
  • With injuries to the OL, no TE threats to speak of (21 receptions combined), a weak running game, Daboll is on the hot seat; there is even talk of Benching Jones for Drew Lock. 

Expect Jones to have a better day vs. the Panthers than he would most other teams.  He can run (we can't get off the field on third downs).  We will have to blitz (knowing that he is deadly from a clean pocket) and that could create throwing lanes and running lanes for Jones.  I expect Jones to have a good day against us.

Having said that, considering the success of Darnold and Mayfield, Jones is only 28.  He has a big cap figure, and if the Giants decide to move on from him (remember, when he had better WRs, linemen, running game, and WRs as he did in 2022, Jones was good and got a big contract.  This might be a game where we can observe Jones to see if he might be a good fit here.  He is 6'5" and 230 and mobile.  Smart, but he tends to hold the ball too long at times (no WR open, no TEs, and no running game)--understandable.  The Panthers, however, could give him all he needs to be successful.  (I know some of you are screaming, "No! He sucks!" I think he is perfect for our system.  We need to add a WR.  Sanders needs to continue to develop and maybe we need another good TE.  The OL?  Maybe we grab a center. Not sure what is going on with Ickey.  In other words, he would be really good with a strong running game, clean pocket, and weapons.  We could trade for him (picking up a player with a big contract that the team is trying to unload is not giving up a lot), then we could trade back a bit in the draft and get a WR and Edge rusher.  His salary is about $20m after bonuses, etc. Shoen and Morgan have a relationship.  We could then draft someone like Allar, Nussmieir, Beck, Ewers, Rourke, Dart,etc. to groom behind Jones, who would have 2 years on his contract.  Just a thought.  Instead of reaching for another #1 or #2 overall rookie QB, we get an established QB who could be much better here, enabling us to move back in the draft to add a second rounder or late first. We could draft a C with the second, second round draft pick.  This is not as exciting as taking Ward or Sanders, but it might be smarter.  

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    • Here’s a summary of the JJ and Luke podcast transcript. Opening / Bryce Young Fifth-Year Option     •    JJ: Breaking news — Panthers picked up Bryce Young’s fifth-year option at $25.9M, guaranteed, coming in 2027. Combined with his 2025 salary of ~$6M, that’s $31M over two years — called it a “no-brainer.”     •    Luke: Enthusiastic about the move. Highlighted Bryce’s improving TD/INT ratios (11/10 → 15/9 → 23/11) and the value of entering year three with Dave Canales. Noted $25M is a bargain relative to the $60M top of market. Luke’s Personal Update — Charlotte Christian Football     •    Luke: Working with Charlotte Christian school football program, which hired a new head coach. Coaches include Greg Olsen, Luke, and Greg’s dad Chris Olsen (a New Jersey State coaching Hall of Famer).     •    JJ: Jokingly quipped that Charlotte Christian’s coaching staff is “the world’s greatest” — a Fox analyst, a Hall of Famer, and the best Panthers RB ever — all coaching middle school football.     •    Luke: Praised Chris Olsen’s deep football knowledge spanning decades and his ability to connect with kids. Round 1, Pick 19 — Monroe Freeling, OT, Georgia     •    JJ: Panthers were on the clock and submitted their pick almost immediately — a sign of confidence and preparation. Freeling is 6’7”, 320 lbs, played in the SEC in a pro-style system.     •    Luke: Loved the pick. Emphasized you can never have too many quality offensive linemen. Noted Freeling’s size, athleticism, and arm length as key traits. Said the pick also reflects team’s philosophy of drafting great people, not just great players.     •    JJ: Noted reporter Darren Gantt compared Freeling favorably to Jordan Gross — bigger, heavier, and faster — as a potential franchise left tackle.     •    Luke: Pointed out that young players like Freeling still have physical development ahead of them, comparing the trajectory to Christian McCaffrey’s growth from age 20 onward. Round 2, Pick 49 — Lee Hunter, DT, Texas Tech     •    JJ: Panthers traded up from 51 to 49 (pick swap with Minnesota) to grab Hunter. Played audio from Panthers area scout Kaden McLuhan, who scouted Hunter.     •    Scout Kaden McLuhan (audio): Said Hunter’s size is immediately striking, and that everyone around him spoke glowingly about his character, energy, and love for the game.     •    Luke: Praised Hunter as a massive (6’3”, 320 lbs, ~34” arms) two-gap nose tackle who fits perfectly in the Evero defense. Compared his prospect profile to Akiem Hicks. Said having Derek Brown, Bobby Brown, Derrick Brown, Terson Wharton, and now Hunter creates varied body types that stress offensive linemen.     •    JJ: Noted Hunter ranked third among all prospects in run-stuff rate and sixth in interior pass-rush win rate — addressing a perception that he couldn’t rush the passer. Rounds 3–7 Highlights     •    Luke: Highlighted WR Brazle (3rd round, 6’4”, 437 speed, 1,000+ yards at Tennessee) as the vertical threat the offense needed. Also praised OL Sam Heck (5th round) as a technically sound player whose “short arms” caused him to fall but who has proven himself.     •    Luke: Mentioned CB Will Lee (6’1”, 33” arms) fits the Panthers’ DB prototype — big, long corners.     •    Luke: Praised S/LB hybrid Zaki Wheatley (5th round, 6’3”) as a big nickel similar to Trayvon Merek.     •    Luke: Excited about the linebacker competition between Devin Lloyd, Trevvin Wallace, and Claudin Cherless.     •    JJ: Noted Panthers had the #1 “steal/overreach” rating in the entire draft — drafting players lower than consensus big boards projected. Around the League     •    Luke: Admitted being “a little jealous” that the Miami Dolphins drafted LB Jacob Rodriguez (Luke’s favorite LB in the draft). Has personal connections to Miami’s coaching staff (Jeff Hafley, DC Shawn Dugen — a childhood teammate).     •    Luke: Also noted Miami’s selection of OT/G Kaden Proctor out of Alabama, who will likely move to guard. League Trends — Bigger Tight Ends / 12 & 13 Personnel     •    JJ: Observed the NFL saw its highest run rate in ~11 years (~52%) and a notable pivot toward big blocking tight ends in this draft.     •    Luke: Explained the cyclical nature of NFL offense/defense evolution — as defenses get smaller to match spread offenses, teams counter with bigger personnel (12/13 formations), which then forces defenses to get bigger at the nickel/“big nickel” spot. Called it an ongoing arms race.
    • Dan Vladar is their best player and that is going to be the difference in the series 
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