Bill Barnwell with encouraging words on the Panthers

[Peon Awesome]

I think Barnwell is one of the best NFL analysts and clearly knows his stuff. Here's what he had to say after the wildcard game, shared in its entirety. Thought Bryce played really well under a lot of pressure (but acknowledges his general limitations) and wasn't so flattering to Nijman. Also says with a good offseason, the Panthers can be the NFC south favorites for years to come.

Carolina Panthers

Lost 34-31 vs. Rams

There are no moral victories in the playoffs, but for the Panthers, this might have been the closest thing to one imaginable. They were massive underdogs at home even after beating the Rams in Carolina this season, and expectations of repeating that feat in the rematch were low. When the Panthers quickly went down 14-0 after a failed fourth-down conversion and a Bryce Young interception handed the Rams a pair of short fields, a blowout victory for Los Angeles coach Sean McVay appeared to be on the horizon. 

Instead, the Panthers came all the way back to take the lead with 2:39 to go before the defense allowed a winning touchdown drive to Matthew Stafford. The veteran quarterback reportedly told receiver Davante Adams he was going to "snatch [the Panthers'] hearts'" on the final drive. A cold line, no doubt, but one you save for the Super Bowl when you know the NFL Films microphones are on the sideline, right? Stafford had to pull out his best material late in the wild-card round, both on and off the field, to get the Rams to the next round.

I'm weirdly more optimistic about the Panthers after the playoff loss than I was after the regular-season win. The November win was obviously more satisfying, but the factors that led to it were unsustainable. The Panthers converted all three of their fourth-down tries, including two for long touchdown passes. With a Mike Jackson pick-six leading the way, the Panthers posted a plus-three turnover margin in the win; the last time that happened was in the Matt Rhule era with Baker Mayfield at quarterback, more than three years ago. Those plays matter and are meaningful, of course, but I'm not sure they're particularly sustainable as a formula for beating the Rams.

And in those same spots Sunday, the Panthers' timing wasn't quite as impeccable. They went 0-for-3 on fourth down. Young threw an early pick to the Rams on a play in which Panthers receiver Jalen Coker, who otherwise had a breakout game, seemed to be on the wrong page after some pre-snap adjustments and stopped his route. Carolina rookie Trevor Etienne muffed a punt to give the Rams another short field, and while the Panthers got another Jackson interception and blocked a punt in the fourth quarter, the turnover margin for this game went down in Los Angeles' favor. (Should blocked punts count as turnovers?)

Instead, this Panthers performance shined through the full 60 minutes, as they went toe-to-toe with the Rams on a down-by-down basis. They struggled early on defense, with Rams receiver Puka Nacua moving around the formation and flummoxing Carolina's zone coverage looks, but defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero and his cornerbacks held up against Nacua and Adams and forced Stafford into what seemed like an endless run of contested throws to either sideline. They rode their luck a bit when Nacua dropped a would-be touchdown just before halftime, but the Panthers were able to limit explosive rushing plays and didn't allow a single drive over 50 yards before the fourth quarter.

And on a day when Chuba Hubbard and Rico Dowdle combined for 55 yards on 18 carries and the Panthers trailed by 14 points midway through the first quarter, so much of the game fell on Young's shoulders. His offensive line was a mess. Guard Robert Hunt tried to return early from a pectoral injury and clearly wasn't his usual self. The third-year pro lost left tackle Ikem Ekwonu to a ruptured patellar tendon early in the game, and replacement Yosh Nijman allowed four of the 14 quick pressures generated by the Rams, per NFL Next Gen Stats. That's tied for the fifth-most quick pressures by any defense in any game all season. Under the circumstances, I thought Young was excellent. The raw numbers aren't going to wow anyone, with the 2023 No. 1 draft pick completing 52.5% of his passes and averaging 6.6 yards per attempt, but Young's 74.4 Total QBR attests to how well he played given the pressure rate. He was repeatedly able to buy time and create out of structure, looking almost Tony Romo-esque as he spun his way out of interior pressure and got out of the pocket to find receivers.

When Young wasn't pressured, he went 17-of-24 for 223 yards with a touchdown and that pick. He threw with anticipation to set up two chunk plays to Coker, who finished with nine catches for 134 yards and the touchdown that gave the Panthers their fourth-quarter lead. Young is never going to have the strongest arm, so he needs to anticipate voids before they come open, throw accurate passes to create YAC and alternately create out of structure. He did all three Saturday.

I'm not suggesting that Young's fifth-year option was on the line in this game, because the indications were already that the Panthers were going to pick up the $26.5 million guarantee for Young to be on the roster in 2027. If Young had suffered through a disastrous game (think Sam Darnold's final start with the Vikings), though, that pickup might have come through gritted teeth. This was Young's most important start in a Panthers uniform, and he came through impressively. This is the first offseason in many years in which the Panthers won't have to make fixing the offense their primary focus. Acquiring a quarterback was problem No. 1, of course, and they've spent the past two offseasons desperately trying to get the right players around Young. Some of those moves haven't hit, but enough have to leave the offense in solid shape. Coker and presumptive Offensive Rookie of the Year Tetairoa McMillan are the two young wideouts the Panthers have been hoping to find. They'll also have Jonathon Brooks as the second back alongside Hubbard to replace Dowdle next season.

There's still work to be done, of course. Ekwonu is likely out six to 12 months, and the Panthers are on the hook for his $17.6 million fifth-year option in 2026. Nijman, a pending free agent, was a turnstile when forced into the lineup at left tackle. The Panthers probably need a short-term stopgap at left tackle if Ekwonu is not ready to go. Adding a tight end might also be on the docket if the Panthers weren't impressed by Ja'Tavion Sanders' second season.

But really, this should be an offseason finally devoted toward adding defense. The Panthers signed Tershawn Wharton and Tre'von Moehrig in free agency, but when they used a second-round pick on edge Nic Scourton, it was the first time Carolina had used a first- or second-round pick on a defensive player since selecting Jaycee Horn in 2021.

[Peon Awesome]

The Panthers like their young talent on defense, but this would be about finding more significant solutions for some of their veterans on short-term, low-cost contracts. Ironically, two are former Rams in safety Nick Scott and linebacker Christian Rozeboom, both of whom were targeted by L.A. in coverage Sunday. No Carolina defender managed more than five sacks, so finding a veteran (or a first-round pick) on the edge who can create more pass pressure alongside Scourton and Princely Umanmielen would be a welcome addition.

It's important to be realistic about where the Panthers are and what they've shown. This team finished 25th in DVOA and ESPN's Football Power Index. It was 8-9 against one of the league's easier schedules, the same performance that led the Falcons to fire Raheem Morris after two seasons in Atlanta. And after no-showing a win-and-in game against the Buccaneers last week, the Panthers needed Morris and his Falcons to beat the Saints, something Carolina wasn't able to do with two chances, to push coach Dave Canales' team into the postseason.

And yet, there are meaningful signs of growth. The Panthers finished 21st in weighted DVOA, and while that's not going to push Canales into the Hall of Fame, it's a sign that they were improving as the season went along. They beat the Packers and Rams and came within a defensive stop of beating what might be the league's best team a second time. If they can stack a second effective offseason in a row, the Panthers might be in position to take over Tampa Bay's spot as the presumptive favorite in the NFC South in the years to come.

[Panthering]

Dan Morgan has plenty to worry about this offseason, hopefully he can keep the positivity going. 

[uncfan888]

Snatch the Panthers hearts? You were ten point favorites and nearly got beat

[Knaakedup]

His words were in line with my sentiment from the game as well. First time in memory that I walked away from a loss feeling optimistic.

Even if we had won, not sure we were going to be able to put together back to back to back showings like that to get to the big dance. All I really wanted was to not come out like we did against SF, and we did that. Not only did we do that, but the team overall showed up and showed out. 

• Best game of Bryce's career given the magnitude of the game
• Coker - nothing else to say
• Tetairoa - We have our own Mike Evans for the future
• Mike Jackson - stud. 

On the other side of this we have this -

• XL - Should not be on the team next year. He is a liability in every sense of the word. 
• Icky - that's a rough injury, not sure how well he comes back from this. Good thing we have a lot of cap space.
• Pass rush - I would cream myself if we got Crosby. If its scheme, hopefully Evero gets picked up as a HC. If its talent, LB and Edge are top priorities.

Articles like this reinforce my takeaway from the game. We played lights out against the presumptive SB favorite for the NFC and earned a lot of respect across the world from everyone who thought we were straight poo and didn't deserve to be there. It seems like we woke up the fanbase with this as well, that game environment looked electric. Our missing pieces have went from evvvveeerrry position, to Icky and defense now. 

This is the first time since the Cam era that I am confident and excited about this team moving forward.

[raleigh-panther]

Truthfully.  A bit concerned about Horn  personally and professional 

2nd concussion in six weeks and concussions are not something to,play with 

it is a collision sport   

he didn’t seem himself after the first concussion    

Not sure the severity of the second but if I were the Panthers, I’d be looking for a young backfill with potential…higher than what they have right now 

[Moonraker]

Need to have more games like Saturday night and less games like Arizona next year. Our dudes better god damn play in the preseason. 

[thunderraiden]

38 minutes ago, uncfan888 said:

Snatch the Panthers hearts? You were ten point favorites and nearly got beat

Im glad he finally did it considering bank of america has been a graveyard for stafford his entire career up until that point.

[DeAngelo Beason]

One thing I noticed in this game (and I say this as the biggest of Bryce Young haters) is that Bryce did do a solid job of throwing into voids in this game, and leading receivers on crossers.  There were a few times where I was thinking "where the hell is he throwing it" only for a receiver to appear out of nowhere and catch it in stride.  Mike McDaniel might be a guy that can squeeze a little bit of production out of the otherwise ghastly Bryce Young. His offenses heavily feature that style of passing game.  I've heard Idzik is drawing interest from other teams.  If so, bringing McDaniel in at OC would be a stellar move.  I know it'll never happen, but fun to think about. 

[PleaseCutStewart]

1 hour ago, raleigh-panther said:

Truthfully.  A bit concerned about Horn  personally and professional 

2nd concussion in six weeks and concussions are not something to,play with 

it is a collision sport   

he didn’t seem himself after the first concussion    

Not sure the severity of the second but if I were the Panthers, I’d be looking for a young backfill with potential…higher than what they have right now 

Horn needs to learn how to tackle instead of just randomly diving head first at people and not wrapping up 90% of the time he tries to tackle somebody...

The concussion he got was more Cherelus' fault, but tackling recklessly like he does will continue to put him at risk for concussions

[Captroop]

Annoyingly, O-Line has to be the priority again this off-season. All the progress we made comes crumbling down if we're not able to sustain offensive drives. We will absolutely regress if we don't have a GOOD answer at LT by the time training camp starts.

Outside of that, I'd like to see us bring in a defensive backs coach who emphasizes form tackling. This season was a disaster of missed shoulder tackles, runners falling forward for extra yards, and friendly fire injuries. 

And I still really want to see a game-changing MLB again. I know it's like asking for a winning lottery ticket, but after a decade of Beason and Luke, it just seems like such an integral part of the Panthers identity. 

[Khyber53]

2 hours ago, Moonraker said:

Need to have more games like Saturday night and less games like Arizona next year. Our dudes better god damn play in the preseason. 

We're beating the teams we have no right beating and losing to the teams we should beat.

For a team on the mend, that is a much better situation than it looks like. We have the potential, where we're failing is on the basics. Another offseason working on that and a summer camp reinforcing it will help a lot. Filling in some holes in free agency and the draft will be massive, too.

It's something different around here. We aren't in free fall anymore. We're building something.

[electro's horse]

Barnwell is a dvoa dork so not sure what he’s doing crafting COPE EDS except click farming. 

Edited January 12 by electro's horse

[raleigh-panther]

2 hours ago, Captroop said:

Annoyingly, O-Line has to be the priority again this off-season. All the progress we made comes crumbling down if we're not able to sustain offensive drives. We will absolutely regress if we don't have a GOOD answer at LT by the time training camp starts.

Outside of that, I'd like to see us bring in a defensive backs coach who emphasizes form tackling. This season was a disaster of missed shoulder tackles, runners falling forward for extra yards, and friendly fire injuries. 

And I still really want to see a game-changing MLB again. I know it's like asking for a winning lottery ticket, but after a decade of Beason and Luke, it just seems like such an integral part of the Panthers identity. 

Yes 

ive said this in a few threads

got a little fella at qb.  didn't exact have a lot of running success after midsession either plus several linemen are coming off injuries 

When i see the time brock purdy and a few others get, its sad that this $86 million dollar doesn't do the same   
 

yes it could be young.  It could be scheme but look at the other teams and the time  those qbs have