Statistical reasons to Scratch Ickey from returning as a LT--Even in 2027

[MHS831]

hope this is not common knowledge to you, lifeless internet whores, (perhaps a bit too strong) but I decided to look into this to see what data Morgan and company will be examining.  Morgan recently said that Ickey's surgery was successful, but that is far from an endorsement that his return to form will be. Mathematically, his return to form is a longshot, and if he cannot play at the level he was playing, we need a left tackle, regardless of the 9-12 month average recovery time.

Career Outlook for Linemen  

Recent medical data indicates that offensive linemen (OL) have a significantly higher risk for patellar tendon injuries compared to all other position groups. For linemen, the mechanical demands of the position—specifically the extreme eccentric overload required during pass-blocking and the stress of managing a higher body mass index (BMI)—contribute to both injury frequency and difficulty in recovery. 

• Return to Play (RTP) Rate: The overall RTP for PT ruptures is only ~55%, significantly lower than the ~79% average for other orthopedic surgeries.  In other words, a player with an ACL is 25% more likely to return to play.  
• Return to Form: Only 21.4% of players return to their pre-injury performance level within two years.  (We have a 1-5 chance that Ickey returns to his present form-forget about his positive development and potential before the injury.  I am not a fan of those odds, especially when it could take 2 years to get there.)
• Positional Impact: While skill players (WRs, RBs) rely on agility that the patella tendon (PT) anchors, linemen require the tendon for the "explosive" leg drive needed to anchor against 300+ lb defenders.  (In other words, it impacts agility and leg drive, and I can't think of many positions on the field that need those abilities more)

 

Injury Type	Return to Play (RTP) Rate	Career Longevity Impact
Patellar Tendon Rupture	50% – 57%	Highest (Worst outcomes in games played/performance)
Achilles Tendon Rupture	~76%	High (Decline in power/efficiency ratings)
ACL Repair (ACLR)	~79%	Moderate (Significant 1st-year decline; better long-term recovery)

 

Recent High-Profile Cases (2025–2026)

• Ickey Ekwonu (Panthers LT): Suffered a rupture in January 2026; he is expected to miss the entire 2026 season due to the 6–12 month recovery timeline.
• Rashawn Slater (Chargers LT): Suffered a rupture in August 2025, forcing him to miss the 2025 season and potentially much of 2026.
• Trent Brown (Texans RT): Suffered a tear in late 2024 and returned to play in 2025, serving as a rare "hope" case for the position. 

Data from the NFL and NIH (National Institute of Health)

Overall Assessment

We basically have a year to evaluate Ickey's progress, but we need to consider the likelihood that he will never return to form. What is Ickey's "Form?" Ickey had 7 penalties (about average for the position) and surrendered 5 sacks (bottom third).  So the level he has a 21% chance of returning to is serviceable--not elite or above average.  There is a 78% chance that he does not return to this level or play.  I would add that he has been improving, but the data does not include projected form; it is based on current levels (2025)

The Panther decision:  

In the view of MHS, the Panthers should begin be re-signing Nijman and BC if possible. I imagine their agents are aware of the Ickey situation.  Nijman is 30ish and a strong run blocker, but his pass pro is weak (47.0 PFF vs run grade of 86.1-that is consistent with my novice observations).  He needs TE/RB help, in other words in some passing sets.   Christensen (29) would be my preference, however, because he has shown the capability to be an effective left tackle in the NFL, driven by elite agility, technically sound pass-blocking, and high-level college production (96.0 PFF grade in 2020). While sometimes limited by average arm length compared to prototypical tackles, his quick feet allow him to reach spots and maintain balance. He has successfully filled in at tackle for the Panthers and is considered a highly versatile, dependable lineman.  So if the Panthers can get these two back, they could find a LT later in the draft to develop.  The more I think about it, the more this might be my play.

Even if the OT we draft late is not ready to play LT in 2027, we still need depth and youth at RT. 

I would move Ekwonu to guard now and have him start learning that position (film, technique).  Lewis and Hunt will be leaving (unless restructured) in 2027-2028.  If Ekwonu takes 2 years to "return to form" as stated, he will show signs of his potential in 12 months--allowing Morgan and doctors to assess his likelihood to return.  Then I might offer a backloaded, unguaranteed contract with heavy incentives.

We could draft a LT in the first round, but forcing a rookie to start at LT in the NFL has been far from a quick fix or recipe for success.  They often struggle for the first year--I am satisfied that, if we run the ball more as seems to be our MO, use more quick hitting passes such as slants, outs and some digs, we can function for a season with BC and Nijman.  Maybe this is a situation that is good on paper but catastrophic on the field, but free agency is not where you find your LT, and first round rookies tend to struggle.

Furthermore, at the Senior Bowl (I think it was the Senior Bowl--East West maybe?) the panthers seemed interested in a tackle that is going to be a day 3 pick.  Of course, there are no first or second rounders playing in that game, so it could just be due dilligence.

 

Edited January 31 by MHS831

[Panthera onca]

The stats certainly aren’t good for returning to play at all, much less the same level. I just have this feeling the Icky will be one of the guys who return as good as ever and serves as a beacon of hope for others with this injury. His work ethic and drive to succeed will demand it from him.

[MHS831]

Just now, Panthera onca said:

The stats certainly aren’t good for returning to play at all, much less the same level. I just have this feeling the Icky will be one of the guys who return as good as ever and serves as a beacon of hope for others with this injury. His work ethic and drive to succeed will demand it from him.

I see your view, but the fact that the time of recovery is straddling a contract makes it interesting/complicated.  Those other OL in this report are older players...but I would not want to be Morgan.  I would base my decisions on the statistical probabilities.  I would move him to guard--I would have considered it anyway if a better OT came our way.

[thennek]

NFL= Not for long. I believe the statistic is the average NFL career lasts only four years. Icky just played his 4th year. 
If he does not come back, he will not be the first Panthers high OL draft pick  to have a shortened career due to injury. See Otah and Bruce Nelson. 
If Morgan is smart, he does not count on Icky coming back as a LT in 2027 and possibly not coming back as a guard either. Anything is possible but the odds are not good. 

 

[OldhamA]

7 minutes ago, thennek said:

NFL= Not for long. I believe the statistic is the average NFL career lasts only four years. Icky just played his 4th year. 
If he does not come back, he will not be the first Panthers high OL draft pick  to have a shortened career due to injury. See Otah and Bruce Nelson. 
If Morgan is smart, he does not count on Icky coming back as a LT in 2027 and possibly not coming back as a guard either. Anything is possible but the odds are not good. 

 

If anything we're lucky he got this injury before we committed a huge deal to him.

We have to operate like he's finished. 

[MHS831]

18 minutes ago, OldhamA said:

If anything we're lucky he got this injury before we committed a huge deal to him.

We have to operate like he's finished. 

that is how I view it.  Even if he weren't injured, my position was that he was an average OT at best.  But it is a business, and if you invest even money in something that has a 20% chance of a return to mediocre, then you will not be running that organization long.  I thought Horn was a stupid deal (stil do, to be honest).  We have first rounders from SoCar who are being outperformed by undrafted free agents and practice squad players--our strength is finding those players--(MJax and Coker) and not trying to invest heavily in our top end players who either can't stay healthy or play the position at an elite level.  

Ickey has a year of guaranteed money (something like $14m).  He should feel lucky he got that deal before injuring his knee, and we should be grateful that the injury happened before we gave him a $100m deal.  

 

[LinvilleGorge]

1 hour ago, MHS831 said:

I see your view, but the fact that the time of recovery is straddling a contract makes it interesting/complicated.  Those other OL in this report are older players...but I would not want to be Morgan.  I would base my decisions on the statistical probabilities.  I would move him to guard--I would have considered it anyway if a better OT came our way.

I've considered that too. If he loses some range and agility he could still potentially move inside. Our guards are aging. I do think we need to be forward thinking at OT with Moton's age and Icky's injury. But Icky is under contract next year and we'll have better jnsight into his recovery than anyone else. I'm just hoping he can get back in the field in the latter half of next season so we can get a real evaluation of him in actual games. I'm not ready to throw Icky out right now but I do think relying in him as a long-term answer after this injury would be a big risk.

This was the downside of backing into the playoffs with no real chance of making any noise. There was talk right after the injury of Icky dealing with some lingering injury issues down the stretch and you have to wonder if those lingering injuries contributed to the big one. When the body is compensating for an injury you're going to be more prone to another injury occurring. Backing into the playoffs with a losing record may have cost us our long-term LT.

[Urrymonster2]

I’d be interested in the number of injuries in these studies and how many starting calibre players. Percentages on small numbers are always misleading.

Id also be interested in what they deem as “performance” as that’s potentially very subjective. Or how they are measuring any explosive loss.

Not trying to dismiss this in any way but it needs a heck of a lot more context than percentages

[MHS831]

3 hours ago, Urrymonster2 said:

I’d be interested in the number of injuries in these studies and how many starting calibre players. Percentages on small numbers are always misleading.

Id also be interested in what they deem as “performance” as that’s potentially very subjective. Or how they are measuring any explosive loss.

Not trying to dismiss this in any way but it needs a heck of a lot more context than percentages

I had the same thought--and since medicine advances rapidly (there was a day when an Achilles injury means you are done) and an ACL was a near death sentence---so I think that is why the examples were recent.  

The context is not what we have, but I did mention that we have the opportunity to monitor the situation for a year.  The thread did say "Statistical reasons" with the understanding that there are always contextual reasons, but your points are extremely valid.  

[csx]

Slater is expected  to return for camp and Brown returned to play in a little over a year (texans signed him with the knee issue)

 

Its certainly a terrible situation and Icky wont play next season but be careful using AI to summarize info. It doesn't replace reading the current information yourself. It always takes in to account out of date speculation and displays it as facts.

[csx]

That said Id take a tackle with the first if it plays out that way. Needed one in next few anyway 

[kass]

Quote

Brady Christensen...

Last game of 2022, broke his ankle.

First game 2023, tore his bicep week 1 and out rest of season.

Played 2024.

Played 8 games in 2025 before tearing his achilles tendon. 

BC: will be 30 and have gotten season ending injuries 3 times.

 

Not saying he should not get a 1 year deal, but, can't rely on him being a starter.

Moton: 32, some issues. 

Hunt: 30, (played 2-3 games?) injured early and ended season with a new injury.

Lewis: 29, some injuries. 

Corbett: 31, some injuries. 

Mays: 27, some injuries.

Nijman: 30, some injuries other season's.

Curhan: 28 (don't know)

Zavala: 27, some injuries. 

Ickey: 26, could have a career ending injury.

The team need to get younger at the oline. I asked Chatgpt.com and it listed Panthers to be the 7 oldest starting line during 2025.

Even if that wouldn't be 100% correct, the combination of age and injuries should be enough to convince most that OT needs to be addressed during the 2026 draft and probably also C/OG. 

 

Posted this earlier.. 

 

Would be interesting to see the availability for the line compared to other teams. 

Oline seems to be a concern and should be addressed this off season. Not drafting any oline, even solely for depth, 2024 and 2025 was a mistake.

[PleaseCutStewart]

Interesting. Curious how far back those stats date? I feel like medical advances have helped overcome bad injuries a lot better the past 20 years.

Honestly feel awful for icky and hope he comes back better than before. Maybe we can resign him to a 1-2 year deal and if LT is too much for the knee, move him inside

[PleaseCutStewart]

23 minutes ago, kass said:

 

Posted this earlier.. 

 

Would be interesting to see the availability for the line compared to other teams. 

Oline seems to be a concern and should be addressed this off season. Not drafting any oline, even solely for depth, 2024 and 2025 was a mistake.

Not sure you can blame the front office there. We had 3 OL have the equivalent of season ending injuries between Hunt, BC, and Icky despite having a good unit IMO.

Now... I do blame the front office drafting RBs and old college busts (DJ) when we had more pressing needs