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pff rb age of decline

nosuchthingasapanther

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nosuchthingasapanther Explorer

nosuchthingasapanther

Posted
Posted

didn't see this posted anywhere. it's from a fantasy football perspective, but since this is brought up quite often on thie huddle, i thought some might find it interesting. i know i did.

part 1 talks about age, part 2 focuses on number of touches.

part 1...

No one should be surprised that quarterbacks and running backs have highly contrasting rates of decline, but the divide in their productivity is even wider than I would have guessed. I’m not seeing the infamous 30-year-old wall that many people think running backs hit. Instead, their decline is pretty dramatic and consistent after 26.

part 2...

There’s a pretty clear downward trend as players march towards 3,000 career touches, and contrary to what the graph might indicate, a resurgence starting at 3,500 touches is extremely uncommon. Only 12 post-merger players have reached that milestone. Nine of them are in the Hall of Fame and two of them will eventually be enshrined in Canton (Jerome Bettis and LaDainian Tomlinson). Relying on a player approaching the 3,000-touch mark is a risky proposition unless you think he is a future Hall of Famer.
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CRA Grand Master

CRA

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I don't think age is as big a concern these days in general because teams rarely have that one 'workhorse' back that they used to. Most teams throw more than they run now and use a 2 back system that splits touches anyway.

Only issue with Williams is he had comical mileage coming into the NFL.

Stewart is probably a better example of the current NFL RB. Light college and NFL work based on old standards.!

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rayzor Grand Master

rayzor

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i think it's more the mileage than the age, tho the age most definitely is a factor, just not as much of one as people make out when you have guys splitting the load like we have here.

totally disagree that we draft another RB next year. we'll be keeping the 3 we have for a few more years and that will be more than ok.

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thefuzz Mentor

thefuzz

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Let's put this into perspective for all of you.

If DWill never plays another down for this team he will have less than 1,000 carries, and a per carry average of about $18,400. Or about 18.4 M just to play RB for this team and manage two 1,000 yard seasons out of 6.

If he plays just this upcoming season, and gets 45 more carries than he did last year, he will average closer to $22,521 per carry.

I am not hating on DWill making money, but what we pay our RB's here in Carolina have to be the laughing stock of the Steelers, Patriots, Giants, etc.....

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csx Grand Master

csx

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I don't think age is as big a concern these days in general because teams rarely have that one 'workhorse' back that they used to. Most teams throw more than they run now and use a 2 back system that splits touches anyway.

Looking at the carry stats it's about 2/3 of the league that still uses a primary running back. It gets a little tough to define without going in too deep because some of the guys who rank in the 1/2 to 2/3 area in terms of carries missed quite a few games due to injury and the other back got significant carries post injury.

I realize there is a difference between workhorse and primary, not really disputing that...it just spurred my curiosity too look at the numbers.

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