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Compensatory picks and the long game

Moorgan

By Moorgan,
in Carolina Panthers

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CPantherKing Grand Master

CPantherKing

Posted
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Alright, I know how everyone hopes we get compensatory picks every offseason like waiting for Santa to bring you presents. Problem is come Christmas morning you end up with a pair of socks or nothing. Your hopes are bashed.

 

Now if you knew there was no Santa and it was your parents who were struggling to figure out how to play the money game, then you would know what to expect.

 

So, there is a limited number of compensatory picks up for grabs. Typically the top 8 GMs who know how to play the free agent game own these picks. Why? Because they understand you rent a player for a year or two at a high ticket price and let them walk to get an aditional draft choice.

 

What??? You sign someone for a crazy amount in free agency who will have value when you are done with them, and you let them walk. You just paid for one of the best players in free agency to help you to a Championship and a future draft pick. That is how a GM wins using free agency and the draft together. Then when you accumulate said picks, you now trade to get better value. And when you use these picks on players, you trade the players you have stockpiled for even better value. There is a whole inside game with the better GMs playing the weaker GMs.

 

If you knew a shortcut to win the race would you tell the other runners? Or would you use the weakness of a rookie learning the angles and making mistakes to your advantage?

 

I probably did not explain it well enough. But simply put the Panthers have one of the greenest GMs in the league, and the Panthers are set for ZERO compensatory picks in 2015 and 2016. The Panthers have a total of 5 qualifying UFAs for comp picks over 2015 and 2016. They would be in line for all 5 if they did not sign Antoine Cason (who the Panthers cut), Joe Webb (who never sees the field), Ed Dickson, Jerricho Cotchery, and if they paid James Dockery an extra $300k for his season. Yes, you could have essentially bought an extra draft pick. If they did not cut Jason Avant and just deactivated him for the remainder of the season, that would have been a 6th round pick. So, play Brandon WIlliams instead of signing Ed Dickson; Never sign Antoine Cason or Joe Webb; Play all the other receivers you had for the year instead of signing Cotchery; Pay Dockery $300k more; hold Avant on the team (deactivated if you don't use him). You then walk away with 6 comp picks of the pool and you can get into the trading game with your own picks for the draft. Clear about 10 to 12 picks every draft easy. We are looking at about two 5th rounders and four 6th rounders flushed. Then add in the RB we could have used in Tyler Gaffney being tossed last offseason. Seven draft picks thrown away. And when Greg Hardy is signed by another team the Panthers get a 3rd round compensatory pick. Oh wait, Gettleman signed Oher. That cancels the 3rd round compensatory pick out. Awesome job Getts. Oher better be worth a 3rd round pick. If he ends up backing up a rookie for the season and walks away in a season or two, then the Oher signing is terrible. He better be the starting LT for 3 to 4 seasons or Gettleman screwed the pooch. And I do not think Gettleman even knows he cost the Panthers a 3rd rounder. Bup Bup Bup.

 

The likes of Ozzie Newsome, Bill Belichick, Ted Thompson, John Elway, John Schneider, Kevin Colbert, Trent Baalke, and Jerry Jones are the masterminds of this game within a game. In the 2015 draft coming up, this group will account for 26 of the 32 compensatory picks.  So, 25% of the GMs control 81% of the compensatory picks garnered through free agency. This shows the huge gap in quality GMs who know how to do their job. And these 8 just feast off the other GMs who mindlessly wander around in free agency and the draft.

 

These same GMs are on target to hold down 22 of the 32 compensatory picks in the 2016 draft. Think about that.

 

 

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Moorgan Enthusiast

Moorgan

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Alright, I know how everyone hopes we get compensatory picks every offseason like waiting for Santa to bring you presents. Problem is come Christmas morning you end up with a pair of socks or nothing. Your hopes are bashed.

Now if you knew there was no Santa and it was your parents who were struggling to figure out how to play the money game, then you would know what to expect.

So, there is a limited number of compensatory picks up for grabs. Typically the top 8 GMs who know how to play the free agent game own these picks. Why? Because they understand you rent a player for a year or two at a high ticket price and let them walk to get an aditional draft choice.

What??? You sign someone for a crazy amount in free agency who will have value when you are done with them, and you let them walk. You just paid for one of the best players in free agency to help you to a Championship and a future draft pick. That is how a GM wins using free agency and the draft together. Then when you accumulate said picks... you now trade to get better value. And when you use these picks on players, then you trade said players you have stockpiled for even better value. There is a whole inside game on the better GMs playing the weak GMs.

If you knew a shortcut to win the race would you tell the other racers? Or would you use the weakness of a rookie learning the angles and making mistakes to your advantage?

I probably did not explain it well enough. But simply put the Panthers have one of the greenest GMs in the league, and the Panthers are set for ZERO compensatory picks in 2015 and 2016. The Panthers have a total of 5 qualifying UFAs for comp picks over 2015 and 2016. They would be in line for all 5 if they did not sign Antoine Cason (who the Panthers cut), Joe Webb (who never sees the field), Ed Dickson, Jerricho Cotchery, and if they paid James Dockery an extra $300k for his season. Yes, you could have essentially bought an extra draft pick. If they did not cut Jason Avant and just deactivated him for the remainder of the season, that would have been a 6th round pick. So, play Brandon WIlliams instead of signing Ed Dickson; Never sign Antoine Cason or Joe Webb; Play all the other receivers you had for the year instead of signing Cotchery; Pay Dockery $300k more; hold Avant on the team (deactivated if you don't use him). You then walk away with 6 comp picks of the pool and you can get into the trading game with your own picks for the draft. Clear about 10 to 12 picks every draft easy. Looking about two 5th rounders and four 6th rounders flushed. Then add in the RB we could have used in Tyler Gaffney being tossed last offseason. Seven draft picks thrown away. And when Greg Hardy is signed by another team the Panthers get a 3rd round compensatory pick. Oh wait, Gettleman signed Oher. That cancels the 3rd round compensatory pick out. Awesome job Getts. Oher better be worth a 3rd round pick. If he ends up backing up a rookie for the season and walks in a season or two, the Oher signing is terrible. He better be the starting LT for 3 to 4 seasons or Gettleman screwed the pooch. And I do not think Gettleman even knows he cost the Panthers a 3rd rounder. Bup Bup Bup.

The likes of Ozzie Newsome, Bill Belichick, Ted Thompson, John Elway, John Schneider, Kevin Colbert, Trent Baalke, and Jerry Jones. In the 2015 draft coming up, this group will account for 26 of the 32 compensatory picks. So, 25% of the GMs control 81% of the compensatory picks garnered through free agency. Shows the huge gap in quality GMs who know how to do their job. And these 8 just feast off the other GMs mindlessly wandering around in free agency and the draft.

These same GMs are on target to hold down 22 of the 32 pick compensatory picks in the 2016 draft. Think about that.

I want in on that game. Tell DG how it's done. Not really being snarky. I do want you to get that information to him. Like really.

I recognize the info is kept secret but the idea of a few GMs having it figured out and rocking it every yr is too obvious not to make sense. Perhaps the other GMs are just too worried about making a decent team first? Ie the stable franchises are the ones that can use this strategy. Good news is we are becoming more stable and maybe get in on the poker game they are playing.

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Bartin Collaborator

Bartin

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Correct me if I'm wrong but if the offseason signing period ended today we would not get any compensatory picks in the 2016 draft. We have signed two UFA's(Ginn and that CB from Jax) and zero of our UFA's have currently signed elsewhere. Deangelo doesn't count since he was cut. The rule states that to get any picks you have to lose more UFAs than you sign. So even if Hardy gets a fat contract out west the numbers don't work out in our favor. Bell, Williams, Docket or some others will have to get a contract elsewhere to guarantee us a comp. pick next year.

You are correct we would receive none right now,mbut Ginn doesn't qualify since he was released and Dockery was signed by the Raiders. That's still 1 in and 1 out for a net of zero though. Hardy and Bell are probably the only two players that will get signed during the UFA period so if we want any comp picks we need to only sign released players.

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IamSoClutch Newbie

IamSoClutch

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I like Ozzie, but giving Flacco the contract he got was one of the more asinine moves I've seen

It's a quarterback league. There going to get paid. It's going to happen. I'd rather have an expensive qb than a cheap sorry one year after year. Cam will get a monster deal also brace yourself

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GoobyPls Mentor

GoobyPls

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And I'm sure Mitchell, Edwards, Ginn and Mikell had nothing to do with winning the south in 2013.

Boldin, Jones, McKinney pro bowlers at their positions, who flourished in other teams. Mitchell, Mikel, Edwards and Ginn a bunch of cast offs no other teams wanted.

Winning a division to Winning the SB. Apples and Watermelons

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bigdog10 Experienced

bigdog10

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I like Ozzie, but giving Flacco the contract he got was one of the more asinine moves I've seen

The hate for Flacco is media/fantasy football driven.

The dude is a winner and is absolutely clutch in the post season.

He's not going to put up gaudy numbers but he puts his team in a position to win the game more than he does to lose them.

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PantherDynasty Newbie

PantherDynasty

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The hate for Flacco is media/fantasy football driven.

The dude is a winner and is absolutely clutch in the post season.

He's not going to put up gaudy numbers but he puts his team in a position to win the game more than he does to lose them.

He had a game this year where he was 3 for 21 passing at one point. Is that media driven?
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