Analysis - Panthers record when leading since 2015 [Update: Also added data re: record when trailing at halftime]

[CPF4LIFE]

I always thought this was pretty  common knowledge i mean its not surprising we won those games. When we have the lead in the second half we do everything possible to burn clock. We rarely throw the ball and there is no initiative to continue to score points. Yes it wins games but i honestly think you cannot build a consistent winning team like that in todays NFL. On the flips side teams know if they can come out and punch us in the mouth early and get a comfortable lead then we are completely out of our element and are now playing out of desperation because we want to run the ball. So basically it means Cam has to pull amazing plays out his back pocket. Why be willing to put your QB in that situation? It shouldn't have to come to that. I truly think you have to be more balance in the nfl today to win it all no matter the situation of the game.

[tiger7_88]

1 hour ago, KB_fan said:

I've been increasingly bothered by people moaning here and on Twitter about how Ron is such a lousy coach, "always going into Prevent and squandering leads."  I've had the impression that's less true these days (not to say there haven't been a few too many Cardiac Cats moments for comfort....)

Now do a statistical analysis on how many of those wins were either amazing come-from-behind miracles by Cam carrying the team on his back or a win hanging on by the skin of our teeth because Ron thought scoring more after the half was too "risky".

[KB_fan]

18 minutes ago, Carolina Cajun said:

I know this is random, but in how many games did we receive the second half.  It's an often overlooked thing, but with riveras propensity to defer, you gotta believe having an extra offensive series seriously benefits us if we have a lead.

Interesting question.  Don't have that data handy.  Will see if I can add it to my spreadsheets for 2015-2018.

[ladypanther]

KB you are awesome!!

[CarolinaNCSU]

Really awesome work, OP. 

Like already said though, I think most people here get pissed that we let teams back in the game instead of putting our foot on their throats.  Granted, that may change a little under Norv compared to Shula...but I'd venture to say we have also been one of the top 5 most talented teams in the league over the last few years.  Due to poor decisions, and in ways taking the ball out of our own hands, we allow less talented teams the chance to get back in the game and win.  Maybe the data will counter that, but it's a feeling I, and I'm sure others, have always had with RR. 

 

[manu4t]

This is one of the few threads on here that has caused me to change my mind about something I felt pretty strongly about. Thank you for using fact through thoughtful and careful analysis to do so.

[Khyber53]

1 hour ago, KB_fan said:

Appreciate the thanks.  But there IS a kicker here. 

This wasn't something that was NEVER TRUE.

Like the tired "We always do badly after a bye" [which hasn't been true in the regular season since 2014, after having been true in SPADES from 2011-2014...]  the Panthers and Ron were not always good at winning when we had a lead.  In fact we were below the league average in each of 2011, 2012, 2014 and also for the 4 year period 2011-2014, in spite of a strong 2013.

I don't have the data as to whether or not Panthers led at halftime for the 2011 - 2014 games, but thanks to PFR, it was easy to compile the data for games Panthers EVER led during those years:

It's so interesting to me that the % of games in which Panthers ever led from 2011 - 2014 is 86% (55/64); identical to the Panthers % from 2015 - 2018 week 3 (44/51 games).

But look at the huge difference in % of games won when the Panthers had the lead at some point: Only 58% in 2011-2014 compared to 77% since 2015.  [The league average for wins when a team had a lead in 2011-2014 is 63%]

So, the evidence is pretty solid that Ron and the Panthers have IMPROVED over time.  Here's hoping we can stay near the top of the league in terms of winning when we have a lead in 2018 because our track record of GETTING a lead in games is VERY solid - even in the early years of Ron & Cam.

Amazing how the win percentages playing from a lead start coming up the year after we get Luke, just like how our win percentages overall came up after getting Cam.

A couple of the right guys at the right place at the right time and your team can be a consistent contender.

And a good coach can do a lot with that. And has.

[KB_fan]

So.... here's where there's lots of room for Ron and the team to IMPROVE.

As several have noted looking at my original tables (and I noted as well), the Panthers win % when tied or losing at halftime has been pretty awful.  But taken alone it's hard to judge how awful.  So I dug around in PFR a bit more and figured out how to sort for a team's margin at halftime.

So, here's the flip side:  Teams who comeback to W when tied or trailing at halftime (Regular Season 2015 - 2018).

Panthers rank 20th in the league with a 23.5% Win %.

The league average (not shown, sorry) is 26.3%.  So Panthers are not horridly below average, but this is definitely an area to improve.

What nearly knocked me off my chair though was seeing how RELATIVELY FEW games since 2015 the Panthers have trailed or been tied at halftime compared to the rest of the league.  Panthers have the second fewest such games, behind only New England since 2015.  So maybe it's a case that because we're so used to winning at halftime in recent years that we don't scheme well for how to come back when we are not winning at halftime...

In fact, this is an area the Panthers have regressed.  From 2011-2014, Panthers trailed or were tied at halftime in 29 of 64 games (45%) compared to just 17 of 51 games (33%) since 2015.  BUT the Panthers Win % in those games was higher:  They won 8 games (27.6%).  Perhaps more frequently being behind the curve added urgency to being able to come back?

So, lets hope we continue the trend of  not often trailing at the half.  But that if we are, we do a better job of mounting a comeback and winning!

 

[Moo Daeng]

I think the relavance of offensive trends is lessened by having a new staff on offense and more talent than we've had in a while. We'll see. Our trends have been different with our two previous coordinators so I expect different trends to emerge as long as Norv is here 

[RelaxImaPro]

A large part of this stigma comes from the 2011 and 2012 season.  I don't know if you were following the team that closely back then... but holy poo it was ridiculous.  It seemed like we led every single game those two years going into the 4th quarter only to find some creative way to blow it.  We were like the Browns in ways we found to lose.  A lot of people, including me, are still haunted by those first couple of Ron seasons... and even the same poo to start the 2013 season until he finally earned the "Riverboat Ron" moniker.

It just brings back flashbacks when old Ron rears its ugly head and we start giving up yards and points in quick succession at the end of games while the offense continues to stall over and over.  A lot of it back then was bad luck, but that's all it takes... one bad bounce and you lose the game at the very end playing that style.

Think we would've won that 2015 Giants game if Gano misses the FG at the end and it goes to OT?  How about if we didn't recover the onside kick at the end of the Seahawks playoff game?  Two games that had NO business coming down to one final play, did... and both those teams had EXTREME momentum on their side and likely would've capitalized on it to give us an L.  All it would've took was a bad bounce at the end in games where we had 30+ point leads at halftime.

[KB_fan]

One last post before I call it a night.  As I responded to @KSpanearlier in this thread, I do actually track the % of highest lead maintained.

Here's what that data looks like game by game for 2015:

For the season the Panthers on averaged maintained 56% of their largest lead.

I need to check tomorrow whether I have this data completely filled in for 2016 and 2017.  I wasn't always quite as comprehensive in my data entry for all games those years due to time pressure...  Also I need to see if there's any way I can find league averages for this.  Maybe I could do something like looking at final game margin when there was at least a 3 score lead?  I've never done something like that at PFR, so I'll have to see what's possible.

But I should at least be able to post 2016 and 2017 data for the Panthers to provide comparison. I'd welcome ideas / suggestions re: what might be of interest in terms of trying to track this.

 

 

[Davidson Deac II]

6 minutes ago, RelaxImaPro said:

A large part of this stigma comes from the 2011 and 2012 season.  I don't know if you were following the team that closely back then... but holy poo it was ridiculous.  It seemed like we led every single game those two years going into the 4th quarter only to find some creative way to blow it.  We were like the Browns in ways we found to lose.  A lot of people, including me, are still haunted by those first couple of Ron seasons... and even the same poo to start the 2013 season until he finally earned the "Riverboat Ron" moniker.

It just brings back flashbacks when old Ron rears its ugly head and we start giving up yards and points in quick succession at the end of games while the offense continues to stall over and over.  A lot of it back then was bad luck, but that's all it takes... one bad bounce and you lose the game at the very end playing that style.

Agreed.  Our defense was not good then.  And our offense would collapse in the 4th qtr.  And our fg kicker was not a clutch kicker.

[KB_fan]

4 minutes ago, RelaxImaPro said:

A large part of this stigma comes from the 2011 and 2012 season.  I don't know if you were following the team that closely back then... but holy poo it was ridiculous.  It seemed like we led every single game those two years going into the 4th quarter only to find some creative way to blow it.  We were like the Browns in ways we found to lose.  A lot of people, including me, are still haunted by those first couple of Ron seasons... and even the same poo to start the 2013 season until he finally earned the "Riverboat Ron" moniker.

It just brings back flashbacks when old Ron rears its ugly head and we start giving up yards and points in quick succession at the end of games while the offense continues to stall over and over.  A lot of it back then was bad luck, but that's all it takes... one bad bounce and you lose the game at the very end playing that style.

Yes, I fully understand that.  I only began closely following the team in Dec 2012, and didn't start doing any data entry of stats until mid-2014.

But I watched enough games from 2012 and early 2013 (and have since reviewed the data for the Pre Riverboat era and Post Riverboat era) that I fully understand how those early years created a narrative that's hard to break.  We STANK in terms of losing close games.  We STANK following the bye, etc.  So, those narratives can get set in people's minds. I've not been totally immune either.  For example: Until I looked at the stats this week I really didn't remember that we'd won all our post-bye (regular season) games for the past 3 years.  (Somehow I thought we'd lost in 2016...)

[Moo Daeng]

2 hours ago, CPF4LIFE said:

I always thought this was pretty  common knowledge i mean its not surprising we won those games. When we have the lead in the second half we do everything possible to burn clock. We rarely throw the ball and there is no initiative to continue to score points. Yes it wins games but i honestly think you cannot build a consistent winning team like that in todays NFL. On the flips side teams know if they can come out and punch us in the mouth early and get a comfortable lead then we are completely out of our element and are now playing out of desperation because we want to run the ball. So basically it means Cam has to pull amazing plays out his back pocket. Why be willing to put your QB in that situation? It shouldn't have to come to that. I truly think you have to be more balance in the nfl today to win it all no matter the situation of the game.

These are basic tenants of football regardless of who you play. Coming out and punching the other team in the mouth and getting a lead is what every team always wants to do to any opponent.

"OMG the other team wants to win" isnt exactly a valid criticism.