No, NFL teams don't need to "establish the run" to win

[tiger7_88]

https://www.thescore.com/nfl/news/1898897/no-nfl-teams-do-not-need-to-establish-the-run-to-win

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This is not to slag Baldinger, who is generally a fine analyst of the NFL's Xs and Os. But the point he's making here is shortsighted. Yes, everything he says in that tweet is true - but it also lacks any relevant context.

Baldinger is trying to present a correlation where none exists, no doubt because of a confirmation bias rooted in the idea that running the ball wins games because football is a tough sport and all those analytics experts just don't get it because they're nothing but pencil-necked nerds who never played the game. Which is a very outdated mode of thinking that ignores the way the game has actually been played for the last, oh, decade or so.

In short: Passing the ball is still far more efficient than rushing and the need to establish the run is a myth, which is something I typed just before I used my forefinger to push my glasses up the bridge of my nose.

 

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So: All five of the teams with the most rushing yards tend to lean most heavily on the run when they're ahead late, when it's best to churn the clock to shorten the game.

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The run game is certainly a component of any successful offense. It can be deployed strategically depending on a variety of considerations (down and distance, field position, score, time remaining, weather, personnel groupings, countering a specific defense, etc.). But Baldinger's blanket suggestion, which implies a traditional understanding of simply rushing the football by handing it to a running back - running for the sake of running - is incorrect. "Establish the run" is a football phrase that deserves to die.

 

P.S. Analytics.

[1of10Charnatives]

Thanks for sharing. Good read.

[Mr. Scot]

I mean, to be fair, it is kinda working for the teams Baldinger mentioned.

[Shocker]

The top 3 teams in rushing...Baltimore, San Fran and Seattle.  hmm...

[Lucian]

I dont agree at all. You are easier to degend if your opponent knows you are going to pass. You run the ball to keep the defense guessing and to set up favorable 3rd downs. Also tp give your own defense a few minutes of rest.

[Harbingers]

CMC is having a record breaking year behind this line. Imagine if he actually had real talent in front of him. 

[cptx]

27 minutes ago, Shocker said:

The top 3 teams in rushing...Baltimore, San Fran and Seattle.  hmm...

Also, Washington... If they could play Carolina every week

[TN05]

36 minutes ago, Shocker said:

The top 3 teams in rushing...Baltimore, San Fran and Seattle.  hmm...

And traditionally, the highest periods of scoring in the NFL and NCAA are run-heavy eras. You establish the run so you can do things like play-action fakes as well as to make the defense have to guess as to what you are going to do.

Math can be useful, but football is not math.

[SmokinwithWilly]

I think what he is really saying is you have to establish the ability to run. Like establishing the deep ball. You dont "have" to do it, it's just another ability the offense has. 

[Dragoon11]

2 hours ago, Mr. Scot said:

I mean, to be fair, it is kinda working for the teams Baldinger mentioned.

Not to mention, if you are an "establish the pass" team, you damn well better have a Tom Brady-ish type QB that truly makes dink and dunk an art and is still capable of beating you deep. Not many teams have a QB that is good enough to truly abandon the run. Saying the run game can be deployed strategically is very understated, even in todays game, if you ever notice, the teams that go deep into the playoffs tend to have a very strong run game. I believe the Panthers run game dominated in 2015, correct me if I'm wrong. I think what he means by saying "establish" is that you MUST be able to have a run game you can successfully utilize at any moment, of course it's ALL strategy. Any teams run game can get shut down, so then that whole "establish' thing goes out the window, and I remember when I was a Dallas Cowboys fan, as a kid, (relax, was before Carolina had a team) during the early 90's, you still had to be able to throw it 50 times if you needed too. With the NFL moving towards duel threat QB's like Cam Newton, Lamar Jackson and Deshaun Watson, the running game is just as important today, it just looks different. The whole point of the run game is to control the pace of the game, YES, you can do it with the passing game, but receivers DROP passes often, and late in a game when you're trying to run down the clock, that is critical. I do agree that it is not or should not be a 'blanket statement', the game has definitely taken on a whole new dimension, that being said, I do think the run game is still a very important component of a successful NFL offense. 

[Shocker]

Nothing is going to change my mind...if you are great at rushing the ball and playing great defense you are a Super Bowl contender.  That is pretty much what we did in 2015

[Moo Daeng]

Lol. You can also win with a HOF qb, top defense, and just decent run game.

Wait until the playoffs to define the winning trends for the year.

[Davidson Deac II]

8 minutes ago, bull123 said:

And you better be able to stop the run as well

In some ways, its more important than being able to run.  

[outlaw4]

I think the more appropriate term to use is keeping the chains moving. A run is much less likely to gain huge chunk of yards (unless facing our defense) but it will often get some positive yardage and keep the clock going. Passing can get more yards but every incompletion stops the clock, meaning the opponent will likely get more plays in that could lead to a score. Two things to keep in mind is how passes can essentially be the same as a run depending on design. Also, a mobile QB has the ability to gain positive yardage with their legs and even some first downs. Basically, it's about getting positive yardage out of plays and even if the run game isn't a strength, it needs to at least be good enough to get the one or two critical yards in close matchups.