Brady's Personnel: Pausing to analyze the development

[MHS831]

Position by position analysis of the new and developing Carolina Panthers:  Free agents in bold and underlined.  Opinions are mine and not to be interpreted as facts.

 

 

Some of these players are new to me and you may know them better. 

 

 Position by position analysis:

Left Tackle:  Okung and Little:  An outside observer might see Okung as a declaration that Little is a bust, but I think Okung is a “one and done” left tackle who will work with Little.  Little may get a look at G, but the smart play is to leave him behind Okung and develop LT skills.

Left Guard:  Nobody and maybe Daley:  I think Daley can play this position, but if they were sold on him there, they would not have offered GVR, even though they are now saying that they will not bring GVR back. Daley worked some at LG last year during preseason, and should be given a chance there again.  He is valuable as a backup, however, with the ability to play 4 OL positions, so expect a draft pick late.

Center:  Paradis and Larsen:  If Paradis’ leg is stronger and he can hold his own vs bull rushers, maybe this is not a problem.  Larsen is depth at C and G, so he is where he should be.  I would not rule out a C later in the draft, like Temple’s own Hennessey or the kid from Oregon.

Right Guard:  Miller.   On paper, the Turner trade was healthy and makes sense.  Miller is a step down from Turner, but lately, Turner was a step down from Turner.  The salary cap aspect of this saves the Panthers a lot of money, and the Okung deal is gone after 2020.  So Little develops behind a pro and we get a serviceable RG.

Right Tackle:  Moton.  Entering his contract year, Moton will be expected to have it all together, and I think he will.  He is a solid RT.

Tight End:  Thomas, DeValve, Manhertz.  I think DeValve will be a serviceable #2.  The question is, will Thomas step up?  I think he might, under Rhule. In fact, both have incredible upsides.   DeValve has done well when given the opportunity.  Without Olsen, we are weaker at TE, and this is not the year to grab a TE in the draft.  Will Brady’s offense require more of a receiving TE than a 2 dimensional TE?  Thaddeus Moss (Mallard Creek HS, Randy’s son) was pretty effective at LSU, breaking the school record with 42 receptions and 534 yards under Brady.  Moss is a better run blocker that receiving TE, fwiw, and he should be available later in the draft.  I am guessing that Brady is aware of his run blocking ability and his athleticism.  I would not be surprised to see us take him, but if we do not, the current three are decent.

Wide Receiver:  Moore, Samuels, Roberts, Kirkwood, Cooper, Zylestra.  Roberts is 29, so his window is starting to close in terms of developing.   These are one-year contracts, and I would say that Cooper has the best chance of sticking; he can return punts/kicks. Does this mean the Panthers will not add another WR?  Nope.  All of these players have shown flashes and have potential, but they are fighting for the #4 and #5 spot. Brady practiced some at LSU with 5-WR sets.  One needs 5 WRs to do that.  These signings are for the bottom of that list.  Brady wants a QB great with the pre-snap reads and can get the ball out quickly.  Bridgewater is that guy.  With less pressure on the OL in pass protection, I see fewer big plays than with Cam, but more sustained drives.

Quarterback:  Bridgewater, Allen, Grier.   Both Bridgewater and Allen are managers and can be effective when given time and if not having to play from behind.  Grier?  He may not make the roster.  Bridgewater is likely to be the starter here for at least the next 2 seasons, based on his contract.  Expect the quarterback of the future to be found in the 2021 draft and possibly become the starter in 2022—unless Bridgewater shows that he can take this team to the playoffs before 2021. 

Running Back:  McCaffrey, Scarlett, Davis, Bonnefon.  I think this is a solid group, and I see no reason to change it.  Not sure what we are doing with contracts here, but this is the most underappreciated, misused group of players on the roster.  For example, where were Davis and Scarlett?  Why no Wildcat with former QB Bonnefon at RB? 

Fullback:  Armah just isn’t that good.  Sorry.  Over the past several years, LSU ran the I and had 5 fullbacks on the roster—last season, they had 1, opting instead for some 5-WR sets (understand why we are signing so many WRs yet?  I think we keep 6 WRs and do away with the FB position) and running more run-pass option reading.  That eliminates the FB. 

 Analysis:  There have been more changes to the offense during free agency than the defense. Brady is the reason.  Before last season, LSU ran the I-formation a lot.  That requires powerful, run oriented line. and bruising fullbacks.  The QB is under center, handing or faking a handoff and then dropping 3 to 5 steps in the pocket much of the time.  Brady changed that and won the National title by bringing in a run-pass option from the shotgun approach.   He used 5 wide outs at times (mostly in practice), but the idea is there. Bridgewater is a good QB for this if you take away the QB run option, one that Cam added that made it a triple option—running back, WR, QB.  However, Bridgewater is a bit more accurate and the ball comes out much more quickly than when Newton was the QB.  With the read option, however, you read a defender opposed to plowing him out of the way.  I do not see much room for Armah, at least I see a reduced role.  IMO, let Manhertz run FB/TE and cut Armah.

The offensive line has quietly undergone a transformation.   We now have a veteran at LT and a bargain at RG.  We are likely to see Daley compete for the LG duties.  I am not sure about Little, but even if he sits behind Okung for a season, it could be the best thing for him.  The OL is a work in progress, but seems better than last year’s group already, if only due to Paradis’ leg getting stronger, improvement at LT, and finding a Turner replacement at RG.  If Daley is the LG, expect the experience he got last year at LT to be extremely beneficial.

What to look for in the draft on offense:  Priorities :  WR, G/C   Luxuries:  TE

[LegioX]

And I thought this was something about Tom Brady.

[run-run-pass-punt]

16 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

Why no Wildcat with former QB Bonnefon at RB? 

Yeah, I thought this was an obvious tool to pull out of the box occasionally. But I knew Rivera probably wouldn't want to see that sort of thing, and maybe he hamstrung Turner.

That's really one of the most exciting things about all this turnover. I'm looking forward to some creativity and experimentation.

[saX man]

There is no way TE is a luxury.  We have a young guy with potential (1st player taken in the 4th rd a few years back) and Devalve looks like a TE2 to have in the bag if need be but if there's a good opportunity to take Kmet or Bryant, we should grab them. 

[Khyber53]

43 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

Position by position analysis of the new and developing Carolina Panthers:  Free agents in bold and underlined.  Opinions are mine and not to be interpreted as facts.

 

 

 

Some of these players are new to me and you may know them better. 

 

 

 Position by position analysis:

 

 

What to look for in the draft on offense:  Priorities :  WR, G/C   Luxuries:  TE

 

Overall, an excellent post OP. My only disagreements might, might, be that I think Daley showed better skills at LT than Little did, but perhaps with some seasoning and time to fully recover from the concussions he will shine out. Okung has a lot to offer and both Little and Daley will benefit from him.

I do see us taking Hennessy in the 3rd round of the draft. He hasn't allowed a sack in over 840 snaps at Temple and something tells me that while I don't think he played for Rhule and Co. there, he was recruited by them I'd imagine. Good, solid, smart player. And I don't think Paradis' leg is a get better kind of thing.

I hate to see Armah go, but honestly, he just hasn't performed there. Of course, if you weren't CMC, chances were you were very rarely lined up in the backfield last season. CMC is the best RB in the league, but the lead blocks he needs come better from guards and pulling centers than a FB. Yeah, I think FB might not get a spot on the roster.

I also think we'll take Moss late, late in the draft if he's still there. The last name carries a lot of clout and his LSU connections to Brady could mean the world when it comes to taking him.

And for my "out of this world, no way it will happen" bonus idea: Cam doesn't get traded, but instead lines up at WR -- terrorizing defenses. The guy knows every route in the book (from the QB's eyes), has some of the best hands in the league (he owns an actual Guinness World Record for most passes caught in a row), is harder to bring down that any WR since Megatron AND it removes the worry about the loss of ability in his throwing shoulder. It won't happen, but could you imagine Cam going through a Renaissance move like that and writing a completely different second act to his career?  Won't happen, but wow, the possibilities.

[Snake]

Bridgewater is way more than a manager dude. He ran that saints offense as good as Brees did last year. 

[bobowilson]

1 hour ago, Khyber53 said:

 

And for my "out of this world, no way it will happen" bonus idea: Cam doesn't get traded, but instead lines up at WR -- terrorizing defenses. The guy knows every route in the book (from the QB's eyes), has some of the best hands in the league (he owns an actual Guinness World Record for most passes caught in a row), is harder to bring down that any WR since Megatron AND it removes the worry about the loss of ability in his throwing shoulder. It won't happen, but could you imagine Cam going through a Renaissance move like that and writing a completely different second act to his career?  Won't happen, but wow, the possibilities.

hm

[Rockahype]

1 hour ago, Khyber53 said:

And for my "out of this world, no way it will happen" bonus idea: Cam doesn't get traded, but instead lines up at WR -- terrorizing defenses. The guy knows every route in the book (from the QB's eyes), has some of the best hands in the league (he owns an actual Guinness World Record for most passes caught in a row), is harder to bring down that any WR since Megatron AND it removes the worry about the loss of ability in his throwing shoulder. It won't happen, but could you imagine Cam going through a Renaissance move like that and writing a completely different second act to his career?  Won't happen, but wow, the possibilities.

Haha. I like it! Brought a smile to my face. 

[MHS831]

2 hours ago, Khyber53 said:

Overall, an excellent post OP. My only disagreements might, might, be that I think Daley showed better skills at LT than Little did, but perhaps with some seasoning and time to fully recover from the concussions he will shine out. Okung has a lot to offer and both Little and Daley will benefit from him.

I do see us taking Hennessy in the 3rd round of the draft. He hasn't allowed a sack in over 840 snaps at Temple and something tells me that while I don't think he played for Rhule and Co. there, he was recruited by them I'd imagine. Good, solid, smart player. And I don't think Paradis' leg is a get better kind of thing.

I hate to see Armah go, but honestly, he just hasn't performed there. Of course, if you weren't CMC, chances were you were very rarely lined up in the backfield last season. CMC is the best RB in the league, but the lead blocks he needs come better from guards and pulling centers than a FB. Yeah, I think FB might not get a spot on the roster.

I also think we'll take Moss late, late in the draft if he's still there. The last name carries a lot of clout and his LSU connections to Brady could mean the world when it comes to taking him.

And for my "out of this world, no way it will happen" bonus idea: Cam doesn't get traded, but instead lines up at WR -- terrorizing defenses. The guy knows every route in the book (from the QB's eyes), has some of the best hands in the league (he owns an actual Guinness World Record for most passes caught in a row), is harder to bring down that any WR since Megatron AND it removes the worry about the loss of ability in his throwing shoulder. It won't happen, but could you imagine Cam going through a Renaissance move like that and writing a completely different second act to his career?  Won't happen, but wow, the possibilities.

TE was tough for me.  Thomas has flashed, and I think with reps, will be good.  I am just not ready to crown him---but I agree that you do not bury the talent.  One of the best things about this season, it gives players a chance.  Lotta one-year deals, opportunities, etc.

[onmyown]

I really hope they resign Moton. He’s improved every year and does not appear to be one of those players that ‘gets it’ his contract year. If Shaq  deserves to get paid Moton surely should. And it would establish this new coaching staff actually giving a damn about the oline, which is going to take a lot of work to repair.

[MHS831]

1 hour ago, Snake said:

Bridgewater is way more than a manager dude. He ran that saints offense as good as Brees did last year. 

For 5 games.  Allen was pretty good here for 5 games as well.  The difference?  Bridgewater had a defense behind him.  Did not have to play from behind---being behind changes everything.  I see your point and hope you are right, but I do not see a game manager as a negative like some.   I mean it that he will have sustained drives, balance run and pass, check down and audible well, manage the clock, etc.   His skill set is not one where he puts the team on his back and comes from 21 points down...

[MHS831]

2 hours ago, saX man said:

There is no way TE is a luxury.  We have a young guy with potential (1st player taken in the 4th rd a few years back) and Devalve looks like a TE2 to have in the bag if need be but if there's a good opportunity to take Kmet or Bryant, we should grab them. 

Some might disagree about Thomas' upside, which makes drafting a TE a luxury.  TEs are a big part of offenses now.  Having three with potential may not be a bad thing.

The reason I call TE a luxury is the reasons you stated---yes, we could upgrade TE--we lost Olsen and Olsen > Thomas.  We could be OK at TE---so upgrading TE is a luxury pick.  We have too many needs to be making luxury picks---so you and I are close to agreeing.

[Black&BlueBubba]

I also think Armah is gone sorry to say. Posted in the advance thread that Devalve also played fullback at Cleveland.  Also Manherz is a risk in the spread offense.  I can see them keeping Hemingway over Manhertz.  Hemmingway is better split out from the line.  
 

And BTW.  Its John Miller. Not Morgan. 

[TheSpecialJuan]

nice work