If you are the falcons

[YourLastThought]

1 minute ago, Actionman0z said:

The Broncos are gonna move on from Drew Lock after 2 years?

Why do I keep thinking Drew Lock looks like 80's Tom Berringer?

 

[Sean Payton's Vicodin]

If I were them I would draft Trey Lance and let him sit behind Ryan

If they really don't want a QB for whatever reason I'd get Sewell.

[Sgt Schultz]

The Falcons put the screws to themselves on about a half dozen contracts, most notably Ryan.  I think 2023 is the first year they can get out from under him without a $40M dead cap hit.  In 2022 he costs them something like $48M to keep and $40M to unload.  The cap equivalent of "choose the manner in which you will die, and old age is not an option."

To me, that means that they signed up to run with Ryan and Julio for at least another year and probably two.  If that is true, they aren't taking your next QB in the first round this year because he does you know good with your last ditch run.  They need somebody that can step on the field now, especially on the defensive side of the ball.  That could mean trading down a bit, if you can find somebody willing to pay the price. 

Of course, they could decide they are screwed one way or another, just lucky to be in the black right now (vs. the cap) and start the rebuilding process.  Their problem after this year is not only that they are under water and have tied up a ton of cap in a few players, but they have very few in the total that puts them under water. 

[MHS831]

To travel across the country, you need a dependable vehicle.  Imagine everyone wanted to travel across country, but there were only enough dependable vehicles for half of them.  You go after that dependable vehicle and you get one--however, you have not paved the road (offensive line), or bought insurance (defense).  Others have paved roads and insurance.  Who gets across the country first?

This allegorical tale was to demonstrate that signing a QB means very little if we are not ready for a QB.  It is also to say if we are ready and don't have a QB, we are going nowhere.  So the moral of this lesson is "A QB in the hand may be worth 2 in the bush, but a QB on a stretcher is worth less than the bush." 

Let that sink in.

[EgoDogg]

13 minutes ago, Actionman0z said:

The Broncos are gonna move on from Drew Lock after 2 years?

I'm glad we moved on from Clausen after 1 year, which was 1 year too many. Cardinals moved on from Rosen in 1 year, which also paid off for them.

It's smart not to get stuck in the sunk cost fallacy. When you know, you know. But also, it isn't always wise to give up on a player too soon. I have no idea where Lock falls.

[SmokinwithWilly]

5 hours ago, Trainwreck said:

Why do people keep thinking the Falcons go offense if they don’t choose a QB? I see them going defense with a stud DL or LB. 

Because the game changing talent that is available at 4 is majority offense. If they trade down, yeah, I can see them going D. But if they stay at 4, Sewell, Chase, Slater or Pitts are better than any defensive player. 

[Panthero]

17 hours ago, MHS831 said:

To travel across the country, you need a dependable vehicle.  Imagine everyone wanted to travel across country, but there were only enough dependable vehicles for half of them.  You go after that dependable vehicle and you get one--however, you have not paved the road (offensive line), or bought insurance (defense).  Others have paved roads and insurance.  Who gets across the country first?

This allegorical tale was to demonstrate that signing a QB means very little if we are not ready for a QB.  It is also to say if we are ready and don't have a QB, we are going nowhere.  So the moral of this lesson is "A QB in the hand may be worth 2 in the bush, but a QB on a stretcher is worth less than the bush." 

Let that sink in.

[Panthero]

17 hours ago, Sgt Schultz said:

The Falcons put the screws to themselves on about a half dozen contracts, most notably Ryan.  I think 2023 is the first year they can get out from under him without a $40M dead cap hit.  In 2022 he costs them something like $48M to keep and $40M to unload.  The cap equivalent of "choose the manner in which you will die, and old age is not an option."

To me, that means that they signed up to run with Ryan and Julio for at least another year and probably two.  If that is true, they aren't taking your next QB in the first round this year because he does you know good with your last ditch run.  They need somebody that can step on the field now, especially on the defensive side of the ball.  That could mean trading down a bit, if you can find somebody willing to pay the price. 

Of course, they could decide they are screwed one way or another, just lucky to be in the black right now (vs. the cap) and start the rebuilding process.  Their problem after this year is not only that they are under water and have tied up a ton of cap in a few players, but they have very few in the total that puts them under water. 

Great point. Just seems like a big gamble either way for them. Which is good, i hope they poo the bed no matter how they play it. 

[Sgt Schultz]

4 hours ago, Panthero said:

Great point. Just seems like a big gamble either way for them. Which is good, i hope they poo the bed no matter how they play it. 

It is a minefield.  If they opt to grab a QB, they are tying up a fortune in a lame duck or a guy sitting on the bench (Ryan).  They are probably doing that either way, but it is more obvious if he is carrying a clipboard or looking over his shoulder.  I may be oversimplifying it, but they may also be throwing in the towel while they have six cap-killing contracts in place.  "We are going to suck, but we'll be expensive while we do it" doesn't play all that well.

If they don't start the rebuilding process, they are delaying the inevitable.  "One final push from the troops" usually fails.

If they try a hybrid of the two, they are wasting part of the heir-apparent's rookie deal.  Just my opinion, they would be better off waiting a year to look at Ryan's replacement, unless they like somebody after the first round.  The sting doesn't feel as bad when it is not a top 15 pick watching from the bench.  KC and Mahomes was the exception, but their team was on solid footing when they picked him.  Like us, the Falcons are not without needs elsewhere.

It looks to me like after their Super Bowl run (28-3 cough, cough) they pulled a "Hurney on steroids" and the present situation is a consequence.  Kind of makes one glad Hurney was not here immediately after our 2015 run, or we might be a mirror image.  We had enough ashes to sweep up as it was.

[Panthercougar68]

I don’t know how to feel about this… It means quarterback will fall but also we have to deal with this pain in the ass for the next 10 years

[mrcompletely11]

1 hour ago, Panthercougar68 said:

I don’t know how to feel about this… It means quarterback will fall but also we have to deal with this pain in the ass for the next 10 years

Pitts on that offense would be pretty sick but there main need is corner

[mrcompletely11]

On 3/30/2021 at 12:30 PM, Sean Payton's Vicodin said:

If I were them I would draft Trey Lance and let him sit behind Ryan

If they really don't want a QB for whatever reason I'd get Sewell.

This is the exact reason they are not drafting a qb at 4.  They screwed themselves with weird contracts

 

https://theathletic.com/2492753/2021/04/02/nfl-draft-quarterback-carousel-is-mac-jones-the-49ers-guy-wholl-be-left-for-panthers/

 

"The complications start with Ryan’s contract, which was recently restructured to take his cap number from $40.9 million in 2021 to $26.9 million. By converting $21 million of Ryan’s salary into a bonus, Atlanta gained some initial cap relief but also added $7 million to Ryan’s cap numbers in 2022 and 2023. When the move happened, some people initially thought it signaled a future commitment to Ryan beyond this season. But it was always going to be difficult for the Falcons to carry Ryan for nearly $40 million with the cap settling at $185 million for this year. Nearly impossible, in fact, with other spots on the roster to still be addressed.

If Atlanta does decide to move on after the 2021 season, Ryan would bring a $40.5 million dead cap hit. That’s a massive number, but it’s still $8 million less than Ryan is set to count against the cap next year. Trading (or releasing) him would also save the Falcons nearly $24 million in cash in 2022. The dead-cap total is huge, but it’s not necessarily prohibitive."

[@bonafidebanter]

On 3/31/2021 at 11:35 AM, Panthercougar68 said:

I don’t know how to feel about this… It means quarterback will fall but also we have to deal with this pain in the ass for the next 10 years

This right here. This is what I have been saying. That group is a beast and unstoppable. Well, if Julio can stop being injured.

[Monrowed]

On 3/30/2021 at 6:09 AM, Panthero said:

Do you risk a trade with Denver and move back simultaneously rat fuging us and still possibly getting Pitts? Im assuming the dolphins and lions go WR and that bengals go with sewell. 

That would be the absolute nightmare scenario for me. Although i guess it would mean we could still pick Slater, so not a terrible deal. 

I think that the Panthers will not allow themselves to get rat fuged with future picks given to the Falcons. Nor do I believe that the Falcons would allow themselves to get tortured in future years by a QB that the Panthers may draft. I think that the number 4 pick is a non-starter. I think that the Panthers are looking at number 2 or number 5 if they want to move up.

Edited April 2, 2021 by Monrowed