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Additional motivation behind the Darnold trade?

Peon Awesome

By Peon Awesome,
in Carolina Panthers

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Peon Awesome Experienced

Peon Awesome

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OK, this might sound far fetched, but hear me out. To this point, literally everybody in the world knew the Panthers were 100% all in on getting a new quarterback. We reeked of desperation. And that put us at a severe disadvantage heading into the draft. If one of the top qbs actually did start dropping a bit and looked like they might be available at 8, there would almost certainly be a couple teams aggressively trying to move up ahead of us to take them. It would effectively force us to trade up or lose out. And the price to trade up appears to be exponentially high this year; just think about the 3 1sts San Francisco gave up to get a chance to draft the THIRD qb. 

Now bring in Darnold. Giving up 3 picks and pre-emptively picking up Darnold's 5th year option suggests a sizable commitment on paper. Teams will drop their guard and assume we've moved on from drafting a qb in 2021. Now let's say Fields or Lance gets past Atlanta (or SF actually drafts Mac Jones). None of the teams ahead of the Panthers seem like threats to draft a qb. Now suddenly there's a realistic chance one of them drops to 8 and the Panthers can still draft one of them, cut Darnold next year (5th year is only injury-guaranteed) and end up spending less in draft capital than they might have had to to move up and draft them in the first place. Granted, you don't make this trade solely for that reason. You're mainly hoping removing the stink of Gase can turn around the career of a once super promising QB prospect. And as Fitterer mentioned as well, it helps cover a gaping need so the Panthers can go BPA and get an elite prospect (Sewell or Pitts?) rather than take a qb out of desperation. But I have to wonder if the idea that it might help one of the top qbs fall into the Panther's laps might have added some additional allure. It would also help explain why the Panthers would make this trade pre-draft rather than wait and see if they actually would luck into one of the top qbs and do the trade afterwards if they struck out. 

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onmyown Grand Master

onmyown

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5th year option is fully guaranteed.

That said is a top qb falls I fully expect the Panthers to take him. 

As the GM said this simply gives the Panthers options. They’re not betting one falls but they have a back up plan with more potential than TB in case one doesn’t.

That’s all it is really, wouldn’t read into it much further.

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X-TEM-X Apprentice

X-TEM-X

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8 minutes ago, Peon Awesome said:

OK, this might sound far fetched, but hear me out. To this point, literally everybody in the world knew the Panthers were 100% all in on getting a new quarterback. We reeked of desperation. And that put us at a severe disadvantage heading into the draft. If one of the top qbs actually did start dropping a bit and looked like they might be available at 8, there would almost certainly be a couple teams aggressively trying to move up ahead of us to take them. It would effectively force us to trade up or lose out. And the price to trade up appears to be exponentially high this year; just think about the 3 1sts San Francisco gave up to get a chance to draft the THIRD qb. 

Now bring in Darnold. Giving up 3 picks and pre-emptively picking up Darnold's 5th year option suggests a sizable commitment on paper. Teams will drop their guard and assume we've moved on from drafting a qb in 2021. Now let's say Fields or Lance gets past Atlanta (or SF actually drafts Mac Jones). None of the teams ahead of the Panthers seem like threats to draft a qb. Now suddenly there's a realistic chance one of them drops to 8 and the Panthers can still draft one of them, cut Darnold next year (5th year is only injury-guaranteed) and end up spending less in draft capital than they might have had to to move up and draft them in the first place. Granted, you don't make this trade solely for that reason. You're mainly hoping removing the stink of Gase can turn around the career of a once super promising QB prospect. And as Fitterer mentioned as well, it helps cover a gaping need so the Panthers can go BPA and get an elite prospect (Sewell or Pitts?) rather than take a qb out of desperation. But I have to wonder if the idea that it might help one of the top qbs fall into the Panther's laps might have added some additional allure. It would also help explain why the Panthers would make this trade pre-draft rather than wait and see if they actually would luck into one of the top qbs and do the trade afterwards if they struck out. 

I think this is definitely Smoke screen for us because They trying to get other QB Needy teams trade up with them but is it bad idea for trade down I mean We need to stay tight at 8th pick for Draft Slater/sewell to protect our young QB Or Draft BPA then Draft another OLine in 2nd rounder pick  again but I don't know if we can do that or what?

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Peon Awesome Experienced

Peon Awesome

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8 minutes ago, onmyown said:

5th year option is fully guaranteed.

Shoot, you're right. That was one of the changes in the latest CBA. I feel less strongly about this theory now but still plausible especially for a player like Lance who might benefit from a couple years learning.

Anyhow, for the record, I'm not personally hoping we draft a qb. I'm definitely willing to give Darnold a chance and hope he's successful. Just seemed like it could have played a role and thought I'd share the theory especially for those baffled by the decision.

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Evil Hurney Mentor

Evil Hurney

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8 minutes ago, Peon Awesome said:

Shoot, you're right. That was one of the changes in the latest CBA. I feel less strongly about this theory now but still plausible especially for a player like Lance who might benefit from a couple years learning.

Anyhow, for the record, I'm not personally hoping we draft a qb. I'm definitely willing to give Darnold a chance and hope he's successful. Just seemed like it could have played a role and thought I'd share the theory especially for those baffled by the decision.

You don't have to actually commit to the 5th year until after the draft though, so not that different.

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Peon Awesome Experienced

Peon Awesome

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Additional point: Let's say Carolina is all in on Darnold and not enthused by the rookie qbs. And the draft plays out so that all but one of the highly regarded qbs has been picked by 8, which seems increasingly likely. Denver looks like a prime candidate to take the final one which ups the value of pick 8 tremendously. Let's say New England wants to move up. We would almost certainly get pick 15 plus next year's first and maybe a later round pick. So we'd more than recoup the value of trading for Darnold with moving back a bit in the 1st. 

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shaqattaq Grand Master

shaqattaq

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20 minutes ago, Peon Awesome said:

Additional point: Let's say Carolina is all in on Darnold and not enthused by the rookie qbs. And the draft plays out so that all but one of the highly regarded qbs has been picked by 8, which seems increasingly likely. Denver looks like a prime candidate to take the final one which ups the value of pick 8 tremendously. Let's say New England wants to move up. We would almost certainly get pick 15 plus next year's first and maybe a later round pick. So we'd more than recoup the value of trading for Darnold with moving back a bit in the 1st. 

Draft Day | Movie lines, Great movies, Feelings

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