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And there are a lot of teams that fluctuate from year to year. For example, the Lions disappointed, and the Bears and Pats overachieved. But your stats demonstrate the point. At the bottom 10 of the SOS (toughest schedule) for 2025, the Texans and Rams are the only teams to have winning records. In the top 10 of the SOS (weakest schedules) only the Browns and Cowboys had losing records. So, it seems that if you have a top 10 SOS (toughest), you have an 80% chance of having a losing record. If you have a top 10 easiest schedule, you have an 80% chance of having a winning record. I am not seeing your point, based on these charts. -
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This article (ESPN) got me thinking and I think on paper. Thought I would share. This thinking involves realistic cap analysis, needs, the draft, and free agency. I think it realistically addresses Edge and LB fairly well. OL (not 2026 so much, but 2027 and beyond looks good). The free agent S has deep range and coverage skills, something that killed us on third downs last year, imo. Beyond Edge, LB, S, and OL depth, that is about it. I took a flyer on DT and WR depth late in the draft, but at CB (Horn, Jackson, Smith-Wade, and Thornton), QB, RB, TE, etc. we are going to rely on undrafted free agents. No cap room left. EDGE: In the $7m per year range, the edge from Atlanta Ebiketie got pressure at a high rate in reduced snaps. With Atlanta adding 2 edge rushers as rookies who seemed to do well (Pearce is one of them--*) but he got pressure in limited snaps at a high rate 16.9% (one in eight pass rush). He is 27 and played in 384 snaps. PFF Score of 74.9. had 2 sacks. If he had a normal workload, based on his limited play, he would have had about 5 to 6 sacks and about 60 pressures. However, it is likely he would be rotational here, logging about 500 snaps. A lot of this decision depends on how we feel about Princely. If they like his development, you probably do not draft an Edge in round 1 or maybe even 2 for several reasons (and many may disagree with this logic, but a good GM has long-term vision): 1. That would give you 3 Edge contracts to negotiate in 3-4 years. 2. Edges take time to develop. They would peak around 2028. The Panthers are in "win now" mode, I think. Mafe (Seahawks, PFF 69.2) is another option, but he is more along the lines of Scourton and Jones II. He would command a contract in the $10m range. Kwity Paye (Indianapolis, PFF 68.7) He is about 28 and is expected to sign a deal around $18m per season. I am not that impressed, but he is considered "above average." I'd rather have Ebiketie from Atlanta for $10m per season less. Center: The center position in the draft is looking better. There are some short armed OTs (like Parker, Duke, et al) who will project inside (G,C). Personally, I like the Center position in this draft--let Mays walk. Re-sign Corbett, and draft a C in round 3. Linebacker: I am not sure what we should do here. I think Morgan will fall in love with Cincinnati's Golday, and we would take him at #51. Rodriguez (Texas Tech) in round 3 could be a steal. However, I am not sure that I see value after Styles in round 1. I think Devin Lloyd will want elite meny and he is not elite--he is good. He will ask for $15m per season. Leo Chenel (KC, 75.1 PFF, est. $5m) is a much better option. Safety: I think Kam Curl would be a great fit here. (Rams, 2 Ints 87 tackles) he is very versatile. Expected to get between $10m and $12m per year, however. In the draft, I think they like Bud Clark who should be there in round 4. Are Moehrig, Ransom, and Simmons enough? Tony Adams (63.7 PFF) a deep safety known for his range. He is expected to get a 3-year, $20m deal on the market. Based on what I am seeing here and the way I am thinking right now on 2/21, here is what I might do: Free Agency CAP: I am going to assume we can clear about $50m by restructuring the contracts of Horn, Lewis, Hunt, and Brown and cutting AShawn Robinson. We could (bold move) extend Ickey Ekwonu--considering his situation, it could be beneficial to him long term, and his guaranteed salary could be spread over the next 3 years or so. Re-sign veterans: OL: Corbett ($3m), Nijman ($4m), Christensen ($2.5m--2 years $5m), Jake Curhan ($1.4m-2 years, $3m). BC may be ready around mid season, Curhan has experience at RT and G, and played well. He has played LT in preseason. There is NOTHING in free agency at LT--most sucked in 2025 and/or are old. WR: Jalen Coker ($8m--4 years, $32m), LB: Rozeboom ($3.5--2 years, $7m) Cherelus ($1m) ST: Isiah Simmons ($1.5m). TOTAL: Approx. $25m New Free Agents: Linebacker: Leo Chenal (KC, age 26) estimated $5m. Safety: Tony Adams, (NYJ, age 27) estimated $7m Edge: Arnold Ebikete (Atl, age 27) estimated $7m Draft: Round 1: Cashius Howell, Edge Texas AM (This pick gives the Panthers a situational edge rusher to pair with Princely while Ebikete and Scourton start. Jones II could be cut to save about $4m in cap room. Round 2: Caleb Tiernan, LT, Northwestern (Good pass protector who needs work in run blocking. I wanted Golday LB here, but if we sign Chenel, the need is lessened at LB if we re-sign Rozeboom. Tiernan is solid). Round 3: Jake Slaughter C, Florida (Groom behind Corbett for a while, but Slaughter is an impressive C who should be ready by 2027). Round 4: Demetrius Crownover, RT Texas AM (This guy can develop as a backup until Moton decides to leave) Round 5: Aiden Fisher, ILB Indiana (could be a nice fit in this system. Smart, with special teams ability)' Round 6: Ty Montgomery, WR John Carroll Univ. (very productive with good size and hands. a gamble, but worth a sixth) Round 7: James Thompson Jr. DT, Illinois (was a beast at the Shrine bowl practices and game. For some reason, there have been a lot of undrafted free agents and day 3 DTs succeed in the NFL. This could be one.)
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