Baker is Telegraphing his throws

[Ricky Spanish]

Everyone has their own theories about why Baker has so many batted balls. Some say it's the O-lines fault, some say it's Baker's height, but I have my own theory: Baker telegraphs the hell out of all of his throws.

Looking back at the game highlights from Sunday on Youtube, I wanted to count how many frames it took for Baker to throw the ball from hand separation to release. To my surprise, it takes him just as long on average as Kyler Murray to separate his hands and throw the ball (11/12 frames). But for some reason his delivery still looks like it takes longer. That's when I noticed something else. In Baker's Dropback, he holds the ball right around sternum height covering the #6 on his jersey. However, when Baker Identifies who to throw the ball to, he raises his hands up about 6 inches so that it covers the collar of his jersey. This is where he loads up to throw and the hand separation begins. From here it takes the same amount of frames to release the ball as Murray. However, from the time it takes him to get his hands from drop back mode to "load up" mode, it takes anywhere between 17 and 20 frames. 

Examples:

Drop back - Hands are at number height:

Decision to throw right before hand separation - Hands are near the collar:

The above throw bumped his frames to throw from 11 up to 16.

 

This seems to be a part of his muscle memory. On this play, The TE cross is the first option and you can tell that is where he was going with the ball even before he finishes his drop back. In the process of dropping back, right before his back foot hits the ground, he starts to load up to get the ball out at the top of his drop back: 

Drop Back:

Decision to throw at the top of his dropback:

Jumps frames to throw from 12 up to 18.

Week 3 Examples:

Baker hits the top of his dropback on this shotgun pass, Ball is at number height:

Baker Identifies the target and separates his hands:

Time from hand separation to release - 12 frames. Add the load up, jumps up to 18 frames

Another one:

Identifies who he throws it to:

 

Right before hand separation:

11 frames from separate hands to thrown, up to 17 frames from load up to thrown

 

"But Ricky" you say to yourself, "All QBs have to load up to throw". And to that I say, yes, however they don't raise the ball 6 inches to do so. Example from two completely different teams because it was suggested by youtube: Week 3 Pats v. Ravens

Mac Jones identifies his target, ball is at number height:

Jones loads up aka the Frame before hand separation:

Ball goes up maybe two inches and takes 2 frames to get there. His release averages around 10/11 frames btw.

Another Jones:

Frame where Jones identifies his target:

 

Right before hand separation:

It takes 1 frame and his hands barely move.

From the same game:

Lamar Jackson - Averages around 11 frames from hand separation to release, also has a funky side arm delivery:

Frame where he identifies his receiver:

Very next frame right before he begins hand separation. His hands don't move from that plane before he throws. His load up is that plane:

Another one:

Lamar's hands don't fuging move before he separates his hands:

Right before hand separation:

Jackson has absolutely ZERO telegraph to his delivery.

 

TL;DR

Baker Mayfield telegraphs his throws by raising the ball up roughly 6 inches before he begins his throwing motion. This increases his time to throw from the average 11/12 frames up to 17/18 frames, slowing his delivery down up to 40% on any given play. This would allow defenders ample time to read Baker, jump up, and bat a ball down.

[Mother Grabber]

does anyone actually use a telegraph machine anymore? texting your intentions would be a lot more efficient.

[PghPanther]

He could be like Mahomes sometimes and look the other way when he throws ........or use his other hand.

I'm sure the result would be a marvel to behold too.........

[philit99]

All this analytical work is great. However, you are giving Rhule information he obviously hasn’t figured out himself. Maybe the huddle can do all the work and Rhule make the adjustments necessary to win games. Hum, should we all be available on the huddle during all games for insight and adjustments? It would be better than the product currently televised. For the life of me, I can’t figure out why we don’t at least attempt a few pump fakes a game.

Edited October 6, 2022 by philit99

[SCO96]

After scanning this post  and several other comments by Huddlers all over this forum, there are times when I really think some of us could actually be of great assistance to the franchise if we were on the Carolina Panther payroll. 

[demcj]

i remember von miller mentioning that this is the type of stuff he looks for on film.

some of this is on mayfield...but after watching the all-22 game footage, the pathetically anemic playcalling is the equivalent of the defense being in the huddle with the qb before the snap.

in years past, bad oline play stood out. now, it's plain as day that defenses know what's coming even before the ball is snapped.

[CPF4LIFE]

No poo 

[Icdeadpeople]

So we now know what everyone else knows...great job btw 

 

[Rags]

15 minutes ago, philit99 said:

 However, you are giving Rhule information he obviously hasn’t figured out himself. 

ur right i'm sure rhule never told Baker once to stop telegraphing his throws.

[SCO96]

I would never consider signing Baker to a long term deal, but hear me out. What you pointed out in your post about the throwing mechanics is fixable.  Footwork issues are fixable. Calling better plays and developing better schemes is fixable.

A good coaching staff could win games with Baker. He won 7 games for a team that won non the year before he got there. And, he won a playoff game after almost throwing 30 TD's one year, without the help of an injured Odell Beckham.

Teddy B went 5-0 as a Saint starter with Sean Peyton coaching him. Last year in Denver he went 7-7 with 18 TD's and 7 INT's.

Sam Darnold went 7-6 with 19 TD's and 13 INT's in 2019. Had he done that last year we would have been an 8 or 9 win team in 2021.

Yet, each guy seems to play worse football in Carolina. Such a decline in performance has to be in large part due to coaching. The current staff is unable to get the most out of the players and put them in position to succeed on the gridiron.

[Mr. Scot]

25 minutes ago, Rags said:

ur right i'm sure rhule never told Baker once to stop telegraphing his throws.

I wouldn't bet on Matt Rhule recognizing anything like that.

Hell, Dan Orlovsky figured out a tell in our formations with a simple film study. Yet somehow neither our offensive staff not our defensive staff saw it.

[NorthTryon]

5 minutes ago, Mr. Scot said:

I wouldn't bet on Matt Rhule recognizing anything like that.

Hell, Dan Orlovsky figured out a tell in our formations with a simple film study. Yet somehow neither our offensive staff not our defensive staff saw it.

To which Rhule quickly replied "no, no We don't have a tell". At least they scrapped those RPOs and alignment to start the next game. Sad state of affairs when HCs are even addressing ESPN commentator's hot takes. 

[Sgt Schultz]

8 minutes ago, SCO96 said:

I would never consider signing Baker to a long term deal, but hear me out. What you pointed out in your post about the throwing mechanics is fixable.  Footwork issues are fixable. Calling better plays and developing better schemes is fixable.

A good coaching staff could win games with Baker. He won 7 games for a team that won non the year before he got there. And, he won a playoff game after almost throwing 30 TD's one year, without the help of an injured Odell Beckham.

Teddy B went 5-0 as a Saint starter with Sean Peyton coaching him. Last year in Denver he went 7-7 with 18 TD's and 7 INT's.

Sam Darnold went 7-6 with 19 TD's and 13 INT's in 2019. Had he done that last year we would have been an 8 or 9 win team in 2021.

Yet, each guy seems to play worse football in Carolina. Such a decline in performance has to be in large part due to coaching. The current staff is unable to get the most out of the players and put them in position to succeed on the gridiron.

It really does make you wonder.  That is why the thought of us drafting a QB high in the first round is almost pointless while Rhule and company are around.  There just does not seem to be a lot of coaching, and that is not likely limited to the QB position.

None of these guys will make anybody forget about Dan Marino, but right now we are on that list of places where QBs go to have their careers die.

[Shocker]

Baker is what he is atp.  Honestly you can’t coach out the QB playing this badly.