Trevor Lawrence proves going #1 doesn't mean much

[Byrdman4real]

14 minutes ago, Pimpdaddy said:

good coaching would make those stats a lot different...when the coach on your team is a cancer.... you look like us....

This

[WeDoNotTank]

3 minutes ago, Davidson Deac II said:

It was an estimate, but I went and looked it up.  I was probably being generous with the 25%

Here is the list of qb's picked in the top five since 2011 (I started with Cam).  And the qb's picked after 2020, well the jury is still out.  

2020
Burrow
Tua
2019
Murray
2018
Mayfield
Darnold
2017
Trubisky
2016
Goff
Wentz
2015
Winston
Mariotta
2013
Blake Bortles
2012
Luck
RGIII
2011

Cam.  

Personally, I would only call three of those picked in the top five elite.  Cam, Luck, and Burrow.  3 out of 14.  

I don't feel like looking up 6-10, but off the top of my head, we have Allen, Mahomes, and Herbert.  

 

I think leaving Josh Allen out is pretty bad.

 

Edit*

 

That's picking hairs a bit but I see the point...

 

Josh Allen and Justin Herbert were #6 and #7.

Edited October 23, 2022 by WeDoNotTank
You said top fivem

[Davidson Deac II]

1 minute ago, WeDoNotTank said:

I think leaving Josh Allen out is pretty bad.

I didn't leave him out.  I specifically mentioned him.  And he wasn't a top five pick.  

[WeDoNotTank]

Just now, Davidson Deac II said:

I didn't leave him out.  I specifically mentioned him.  And he wasn't a top five pick.  

Edited op

[top dawg]

37 minutes ago, Krovvy said:

Every year, same argument.

Here's the same reply:

No matter what anecdotes you have it doesn't change the fact that mathematically having a higher pick gives you more of a chance to make the correct selection.

Yeah, but does having the FIRST pick give you that big of an advantage at the QB tree?

Edited October 23, 2022 by top dawg

[frankw]

34 minutes ago, WeDoNotTank said:

And the Giants are proving you don't need a good QB to go 6-1

Yeah but they go as far as Saquan goes ask us about the "give your RB the most touches in the NFL"  formula. It isn't built to last. They picked the right head coach though.

Edited October 23, 2022 by frankw

[TLGPanthersFan]

Just now, top dawg said:

Yeah, but does having the FIRST pick give you that big of am advantage at the QB tree?

It means you have the pick of the litter. Don’t have to settle. 

[ForJimmy]

28 minutes ago, CRA said:

I mean his rookie year he went to a complete shitshow.  Urban got fired in season of year one and they had no talent. 

now he is in year 2 already in a new offense.   

they haven’t lost a game by more than a score this year with okay talent around him. He is completing 65% of his passes.  With the Eagles being the lone exception, they have had the lead in the 4th of every game. 
 

 

Right? He looks the part to me. Just need the team to fully settle into the new coach’s offense and get him some weapons. 

[jb2288]

Just now, top dawg said:

Yeah, but does having the FIRST pick give you that big of an advantage at the QB tree?

Unless there’s a clear cut #1, I don’t think so. When Cam and Luck came out yes obviously, but this year I don’t think so. History tells us out of the top 3 the most likely scenario is one’s a good starter ones a JAG ones a bust. If we get any of the 3 between Young Levis and Stroud I’ll be happy 

[top dawg]

Just now, TLGPanthersFan said:

It means you have the pick of the litter. Don’t have to settle. 

Great, but that doesn't answer the question within a historical context.

[Basbear]

35 minutes ago, Davidson Deac II said:

We might still have Rhule.  

We would still have herniay......how could you fired the GM that picked TWO great QBs?!?!?!?

sliver lining....

[WeDoNotTank]

2 minutes ago, frankw said:

Yeah but they go as far as Saquan goes ask us about the "give your RB the most touches in the NF"  formula. It isn't built to last. They picked the right head coach though.

24 touches a game they will break him again.

[Krovvy]

4 minutes ago, top dawg said:

Yeah, but does having the FIRST pick give you that big of an advantage at the QB tree?

You can hit anywhere, but mathematically speaking, of course.

[Davidson Deac II]

Just now, WeDoNotTank said:

Edited op

No worries.

And it probably is splitting hairs, but I don't think KC, Buffalo, or SD intentionally tanked.  They just let the chips fall so to speak.  IMO, there is so much luck involved in getting a elite qb, that it really isn't worth trying to jockey for a top five pick just so you can have a 1 in 4 or 5 shot at getting an elite qb.  

But if we do end up with a top five pick, I will keep my fingers crossed that he turns into the next Mahomes.