Finding a QB is hard

[OldhamA]

19 hours ago, Mr. Scot said:

Rhule was just an unmitigated disaster.

I don't think he was talent acquisition wise - this roster is in a much better place than where he found it, but clearly his College coaching methods don't work on millionaires. 

[OldhamA]

18 hours ago, mrcompletely11 said:

Mike Glennon smiles approvingly

Matt Cassel is the king of this particular game. He's pushed close by Matt Schaub though.

[OldhamA]

17 hours ago, Swirly said:

Since 2005, it is very rare that you find a franchise QB with 1 of the top 5 picks.

2005 - Alex Smith Pick #1

2006 - Vince Young #3

2007 - Jamarcus Russell #1

2008 - Matt Ryan #3

2009 - Matt Stafford #1, Mark Sanchez #5

2010 - Sam Bradford #1

2011 - Cam Newton #1

2012 - Andrew Luck #1, RGIII #2

2014 - Blake Bortles #3

2015 - Jameis Winston #1, Marcus Mariota #2

2016 - Jared Goff #1, Carson Wentz #2

2017 - Mitch Trubinsky #2

2018 - Baker Mayfield #1, Sam Darnold #3

2019 - Kyler Murray #1

2020 - Joe Burrow #1, Tua Tugovailoa #3

2021 - Trevor Lawrence #1, Zack Wilson #2, Trey Lance #3

 

If we go by analytics then you don’t pick a QB in the top 5 picks. Lesson is don’t tank for a QB.

I count 8 QBs you'd be very happy to hang your hat on there (Smith, Newton, Luck, Burrow, Lawrence, Ryan, Stafford and Murray) with several more that are considerably better than what we currently have on the roster.

So no, it's not the surefire way to solve the problem, but it helps. As always correctly evaluating and developing talent trumps draft order.

[OldhamA]

17 hours ago, Swirly said:

 A franchise player is one of the best players on the team that you can build around. Most of those QB's aren't. I'm not looking for a solid player in the top 5 picks. I want someone that other teams fear.

Nah, a 'franchise QB' is one you're not actively looking to upgrade on year-on-year.

There's only a handful of 'best player on the team' QBs in the league - they're not franchise QBs, they're MVPs. 

[X-Clown]

16 hours ago, Mr. Scot said:

It's not that hard to believe.

I've seen plenty of draft classes not produce any great quarterbacks, even ones that were thought to be good.

In going back through the last 15 years of drafts (2005-2020 since it's probably too soon to judge 2021 and 2022), I see 4 years (2007, 2010, 2014, 2015) where there wasn't at least one QB who you wouldn't at least define as good. That still is giving you a hit rate of almost 75%, and not taking into account years where there multiple QBs available who hit. 

[Snake]

I've never been a fan of using has been QBs. Jake Delhomme was a exception but he was also never used and was on a team that didn't evaluate talent well. Finding a good QB isn't hard picking in the top 5 if you evaluate well. The only catch is most teams picking top 5 have bad FO and that's why failure rate is high. 

[OceanPanther]

19 hours ago, Swirly said:

Since 2005, it is very rare that you find a franchise QB with 1 of the top 5 picks.

2005 - Alex Smith Pick #1

2006 - Vince Young #3

2007 - Jamarcus Russell #1

2008 - Matt Ryan #3

2009 - Matt Stafford #1, Mark Sanchez #5

2010 - Sam Bradford #1

2011 - Cam Newton #1

2012 - Andrew Luck #1, RGIII #2

2014 - Blake Bortles #3

2015 - Jameis Winston #1, Marcus Mariota #2

2016 - Jared Goff #1, Carson Wentz #2

2017 - Mitch Trubinsky #2

2018 - Baker Mayfield #1, Sam Darnold #3

2019 - Kyler Murray #1

2020 - Joe Burrow #1, Tua Tugovailoa #3

2021 - Trevor Lawrence #1, Zack Wilson #2, Trey Lance #3

 

If we go by analytics then you don’t pick a QB in the top 5 picks. Lesson is don’t tank for a QB.

If there's a Cam,  or Andrew Luck,  Payton Manning sitting there,  then yes, you should try to tank for one..  but just drafting the best in any class is not a recipe  for success.

Court is still out on Trevor Lawrence and I think Joe Burrow is the real deal,

[Carolina Cajun]

Nvmd

Edited October 26, 2022 by Carolina Cajun

[1of10Charnatives]

Not nearly enough weight is given to, nor thought put into, the situation that QB finds themselves in upon being drafted. The teams drafting top 5 are almost always drafting there because they were awful the prior year, and while it's true that occasionally key injuries and other circumstances conspired against said team to leave them with an awful record, that's the exception rather than the rule. When a QB is drafted top 5, he's almost always going to a bad team, usually with less than stellar coaching and a less than stellar OL, offensive weapons, or facing regime change in the coaching staff.

These aren't exactly the conditions that set one up for success. Mahomes was drafted tenth by a sound overall organization that had dipped slightly the year before. Rogers famously got passed over after being projected as a possible first pick, but then fell into a situation where he was afforded the luxury of sitting multiple years behind Brett Favre before being handed the reigns of a solid team. Rothlisberger walked into an ideal situation at the beginning of his career, where the hole at the position he played was the only really glaring one on the roster. Look at Josh Allen, who wasn't even great his first season, but was drafted by a team clearly on the upswing and a braintrust steadily improving the talent on the roster.

So many factors around the QB make a huge impact on how much of a chance that QB has to succeed. What I'm very optimistic about for our next QB is that unlike Cam, anyone we draft should get a chance to throw behind a solid offensive line, to skill position players that aren't the dregs of the league. The only question mark at this point will be the coaching staff that QB plays for.

Don't @#%! up the next one Dave.

[Mr. Scot]

13 hours ago, 1of10Charnatives said:

Not nearly enough weight is given to, nor thought put into, the situation that QB finds themselves in upon being drafted. The teams drafting top 5 are almost always drafting there because they were awful the prior year, and while it's true that occasionally key injuries and other circumstances conspired against said team to leave them with an awful record, that's the exception rather than the rule. When a QB is drafted top 5, he's almost always going to a bad team, usually with less than stellar coaching and a less than stellar OL, offensive weapons, or facing regime change in the coaching staff.

These aren't exactly the conditions that set one up for success. Mahomes was drafted tenth by a sound overall organization that had dipped slightly the year before. Rogers famously got passed over after being projected as a possible first pick, but then fell into a situation where he was afforded the luxury of sitting multiple years behind Brett Favre before being handed the reigns of a solid team. Rothlisberger walked into an ideal situation at the beginning of his career, where the hole at the position he played was the only really glaring one on the roster. Look at Josh Allen, who wasn't even great his first season, but was drafted by a team clearly on the upswing and a braintrust steadily improving the talent on the roster.

So many factors around the QB make a huge impact on how much of a chance that QB has to succeed. What I'm very optimistic about for our next QB is that unlike Cam, anyone we draft should get a chance to throw behind a solid offensive line, to skill position players that aren't the dregs of the league. The only question mark at this point will be the coaching staff that QB plays for.

Don't @#%! up the next one Dave.

Totally agree 

[AU-panther]

On 10/25/2022 at 1:01 PM, Swirly said:

Since 2005, it is very rare that you find a franchise QB with 1 of the top 5 picks.

2005 - Alex Smith Pick #1

2006 - Vince Young #3

2007 - Jamarcus Russell #1

2008 - Matt Ryan #3

2009 - Matt Stafford #1, Mark Sanchez #5

2010 - Sam Bradford #1

2011 - Cam Newton #1

2012 - Andrew Luck #1, RGIII #2

2014 - Blake Bortles #3

2015 - Jameis Winston #1, Marcus Mariota #2

2016 - Jared Goff #1, Carson Wentz #2

2017 - Mitch Trubinsky #2

2018 - Baker Mayfield #1, Sam Darnold #3

2019 - Kyler Murray #1

2020 - Joe Burrow #1, Tua Tugovailoa #3

2021 - Trevor Lawrence #1, Zack Wilson #2, Trey Lance #3

 

If we go by analytics then you don’t pick a QB in the top 5 picks. Lesson is don’t tank for a QB.

Thats an incomplete way to look at those stats.  You have to compare them to all of the QBs picked between 6-32.

On your list there are 22 QBs, of which lets say 8 are above average or good chance of being above average (Ryan, Stafford, Newton, Luck, Murray, Burrow, Lawrance?, Tua?, Wilson?).  So 8/22 turned out good, which is around 36%.  36% seems low and supports your argument of not drafting one in the top 5, but that doesn't' tell the full picture.

Now go and make a list of all the QBs drafted 6-32 during those same years.  Maybe you could up with 60 qbs.  Of those maybe 8 turn out above average.  That works out to 8/60 which is 13%.  At that points you are almost 3 times as likely (36% to 13%) to find a good QB in the top 5.  Three times as likely is a substantial amount. 

Is 13% an accurate number, probably not, I'm too lazy to go back and look but if you want to make the argument that drafting in the top-5 is stupid you need to do the legwork and figure out the other stats.

 

 

[Swirly]

35 minutes ago, AU-panther said:

Thats an incomplete way to look at those stats.  You have to compare them to all of the QBs picked between 6-32.

On your list there are 22 QBs, of which lets say 8 are above average or good chance of being above average (Ryan, Stafford, Newton, Luck, Murray, Burrow, Lawrance?, Tua?, Wilson?).  So 8/22 turned out good, which is around 36%.  36% seems low and supports your argument of not drafting one in the top 5, but that doesn't' tell the full picture.

Now go and make a list of all the QBs drafted 6-32 during those same years.  Maybe you could up with 60 qbs.  Of those maybe 8 turn out above average.  That works out to 8/60 which is 13%.  At that points you are almost 3 times as likely (36% to 13%) to find a good QB in the top 5.  Three times as likely is a substantial amount. 

Is 13% an accurate number, probably not, I'm too lazy to go back and look but if you want to make the argument that drafting in the top-5 is stupid you need to do the legwork and figure out the other stats.

 

 

No my point for posting that is that us tanking for a pick in the top 5 may not fix our situation. I'd much rather not tank this season and pick in the 10-25 range which could still land you a really good/Elite QB, such as Mahomes or Rogers. Now I'm not saying that we will land one of those types in that range, but I'd rather do that then pick in the top 5 for a QB that may not work out. I don't trust Tepper to pick a good HC that would be able to provide a staff that would be able to properly coach a QB to become a franchise player.