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Probability Analysis of the Burns and DJ decision

Evil Hurney

By Evil Hurney,
in Carolina Panthers

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Toomers Mentor

Toomers

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, frankw said:

The original post in question said they were "almost sure to be" bad enough for a top 16 pick. Now you are saying they "could" be average. That's a more reasonable distinction and I agree.

They are same thing. I actually think they will be worse. It will take a lot of things going right to be anything more than that. 

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mrcompletely11 Grand Master

mrcompletely11

Posted
Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, frankw said:

The original post in question said they were "almost sure to be" bad enough for a top 16 pick. Now you are saying they "could" be average. That's a more reasonable distinction and I agree.

They have 3 wins as we speak and no viable method to improve in the off-season.   It’s a lock that they will a bottom half team for the next couple of years.   Their line sucks, their rbs really suck and the qb is a perpetually hurt 35 year old.   Not sure why you are having trouble understanding why they are in a decline as a team.    

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Martin Grand Master

Martin

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Malt Liquor said:

Brian Burns is average at best. He can definitely be replaced with an upgrade.

I think this is where we differ. I see him as a young player and team leader still getting better. Looking at purely stats (I know, I know, you have to look beyond stats), he is far from “average at best”:

image.thumb.png.1500c7f287a406dbdd34e88ab9f82d69.png


image.thumb.png.5ed2a86e96251bb5eac379d32b58ebe1.png

 

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frankw Grand Master

frankw

Posted
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1 hour ago, mrcompletely11 said:

They have 3 wins as we speak and no viable method to improve in the off-season.   It’s a lock that they will a bottom half team for the next couple of years.   Their line sucks, their rbs really suck and the qb is a perpetually hurt 35 year old.   Not sure why you are having trouble understanding why they are in a decline as a team.    

You've been raging about this for days my guy. We will still have other draft picks to work with and this declined trade will not prevent us from being a competitive team ourselves as long as we get the right coach in here. Look at the Seahawks chugging right along with Geno fuging Smith. Chin up.

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Martin Grand Master

Martin

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, mrcompletely11 said:

^ that clearly shows he is average at best.   What am I missing?

Well, looking at the math one can say there is 64 starting ends or 3/4 olbs in the league. If you are 6th in tackles for loss and 13 in sacks, that would say you are way better than average. But I’m open to hear how you are interpreting the numbers I posted.

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Martin Grand Master

Martin

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Brooklyn 3.0 said:

Oh, I see! Data analytics! The TRUTH! It's all any coach/GM needs!

Come On Reaction GIF by NBA

I don’t think the intention of the OP or myself was to scare you with data and numbers. I hope you can overcome this misstep from our side and that you can have a good night sleep without any nightmares.

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Actionman0z Veteran

Actionman0z

Posted
Posted
9 hours ago, Evil Hurney said:

There's been a lot of digital ink spilled over the non-trades of Brian Burns and DJ Moore. The alleged total compensation was 3 1st-round picks and 1 2nd-round pick for the pair. I was curious what probability said regarding the decision.

Assumptions:

  • We can spend all the picks at the same time and neglect the year of the draft pick (some were way off in the future making them less valuable)
  • Burns and DJ are considered Pro Bowl caliber players; Note that I didn't say All Pro, which is a higher bar
  • A 1st round pick becomes a Pro Bowler 44% of the time; Keep in mind WRs and DL have been shown to hit at a much lower rate
  • A 2nd round pick becomes a Pro Bower 18% of the time

Background:

I am going to model this using a probability tree where we are essentially rolling a dice for each pick. We have 3 dice weighted for a 1st-round pick (44% success) and 1 dice weighted for a 2nd-round pick (18% success). Once we have 2 success we stop rolling and collect the profit (the extra picks).

Results:

image.png.ce0ab436516abfc33fadeba023085c02.png

Takeaway:

Within this context the Panthers made the right decision. They have a 41% chance of profiting off the trade (big or small gain) compared to a 52% chance of losing on the trade (big or small loss).

We should have traded them. We could be a 2-7 team with a a future, or with them, 2-7 and still straight fuging garbage. The Carolina Panthers are a desirable destination no matter what, because only 32 mother fugers get to coach. Should have traded these pricks for picks. Period. 

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