let's talk about Brock Purdy and Mike White

[GOAT]

1 hour ago, kungfoodude said:

A pretty good chunk of the people who have participated in this thread and panned your "question."

[kungfoodude]

1 minute ago, GOAT said:

/cdn-cgi/mirage/338975d0e6d2b86e6d117d6bfb3eae8b0887a6433a67bc51f0f5769ff2c1c629/1280/https://media4.giphy.com/media/R8n7YlPHe34dy/200.gif

[CPantherKing]

On 12/8/2022 at 6:36 AM, BrianS said:

Statistically speaking, QB's selected in the first round hit at a rate of about 50%.  Which isn't wonderful . . . until you consider that QB's selected in every other round hit at a rate of about 10%.  Coaching and system play a huge role in this, yes, but the delta between round 1 and all other rounds is so high that you simply can't ignore it.

Hit at 50%?

125 QBs selected in the 1st round. 18 of them have won a SB. 38 Have produced at least 1 GWD in the playoffs.

What is your baseline for a 1st round QB that hits to get them to hit 50%?

Undrafted QBs can lead teams to 8 wins in a season. They can lead teams to the playoffs. You don't need to waste draft capital on a 1st round QB if this is all you need for a successful QB.

Counting QBs who never get a start/opportunity in the NFL as part of the population is comical. QBs are capable and saying that you would count Kurt Warner, Jake Delhomme, or Taylor Heinicke as a negative if they never got a start is a big reason why the NFL keeps getting it wrong.

Just over 80 QBs were selected in the 1st round in the first 4.5 decades. In the last decade, 40 QBs have been selected in the 1st round. That is a glaring red flag.

A good starting point is a baseline of 5 starts in the NFL. See what happens when you consider only QBs who get an opportunity in the NFL. There are about 450 QBs in the modern draft era who qualify for this.

... or you can lump in all the QBs coming out of college who never got a shot in the NFL and tout the 1st rounders even harder. Then you can scratch your head and wonder why SB winning QBs and GWD playoff QBs are not heavily weighted to drafting 1st round QBs.

[uncfan888]

Cpk is fixated on game winning drives 

[Aussie Tank]

1 hour ago, CPantherKing said:

Hit at 50%?

125 QBs selected in the 1st round. 18 of them have won a SB. 38 Have produced at least 1 GWD in the playoffs.

What is your baseline for a 1st round QB that hits to get them to hit 50%?

Undrafted QBs can lead teams to 8 wins in a season. They can lead teams to the playoffs. You don't need to waste draft capital on a 1st round QB if this is all you need for a successful QB.

Counting QBs who never get a start/opportunity in the NFL as part of the population is comical. QBs are capable and saying that you would count Kurt Warner, Jake Delhomme, or Taylor Heinicke as a negative if they never got a start is a big reason why the NFL keeps getting it wrong.

Just over 80 QBs were selected in the 1st round in the first 4.5 decades. In the last decade, 40 QBs have been selected in the 1st round. That is a glaring red flag.

A good starting point is a baseline of 5 starts in the NFL. See what happens when you consider only QBs who get an opportunity in the NFL. There are about 450 QBs in the modern draft era who qualify for this.

... or you can lump in all the QBs coming out of college who never got a shot in the NFL and tout the 1st rounders even harder. Then you can scratch your head and wonder why SB winning QBs and GWD playoff QBs are not heavily weighted to drafting 1st round QBs.

There’s too many variables mate as to why QBs succeed coaching, play calling surrounding talent and the list goes on. 
It all comes down to coaching and having talent around them because mainly traits will get a QB drafted early. Without being privy to what’s going on between these blokes ears with everything surrounding a QB being equal I’d rather have the more talented QB prospect 

[Wundrbread33]

@CPantherKingmakes a good point about many quarterbacks simply not getting a chance. 
 

A 1st rounder nearly always gets a chance. 
 

Let’s use our very own Sam Darnold as an example. If he was drafted day 3, do you think he’d still be given chances? Or would he be out of the league?

If he was a late round pick with the same talent, he may not ever see the field. 
 

Early draft picks can be the most talented, but other factors are money invested, front office reputation attached  to those players, perception of talent based on draft position, etc. 

 

Makes you wonder if there was another Montana lite out there, who didn’t get burn. I don’t think talent always prevails. 

[Davidson Deac II]

4 minutes ago, Wundrbread33 said:

@CPantherKingmakes a good point about many quarterbacks simply not getting a chance. 
 

A 1st rounder nearly always gets a chance. 
 

Let’s use our very own Sam Darnold as an example. If he was drafted day 3, do you think he’d still be given chances? Or would he be out of the league?

If he was a late round pick with the same talent, he may not ever see the field. 

Carson Wentz comes to mind.  

[kungfoodude]

13 hours ago, uncfan888 said:

Cpk is fixated on game winning drives 

To a numerology level.

[Gerry Green]

9 hours ago, Wundrbread33 said:

@CPantherKingmakes a good point about many quarterbacks simply not getting a chance. 
 

A 1st rounder nearly always gets a chance. 
 

Let’s use our very own Sam Darnold as an example. If he was drafted day 3, do you think he’d still be given chances? Or would he be out of the league?

If he was a late round pick with the same talent, he may not ever see the field. 
 

Early draft picks can be the most talented, but other factors are money invested, front office reputation attached  to those players, perception of talent based on draft position, etc. 

 

Makes you wonder if there was another Montana lite out there, who didn’t get burn. I don’t think talent always prevails. 

 

The Packers have had 2 HOF QBs over the last 26yrs. And have a whopping 2 SB wins. Talent alone can't do diddly.

[45catfan]

Purdy and White aside, this shows that at least in the short term a team can win a game manager QB as long as it has solid upper management, a competent coaching staff and a solid overall roster.

What does the Panthers have in that regard? None of the three and fans thinking we are a QB away (no matter the draft status) from being contenders. Sad, so very sad.

[CPantherKing]

2 hours ago, stbugs said:

The funniest part in these stupid discussions about 1st round QBs not being worth it is that there aren’t even enough starting slots to make every 1st rounder a success. When you consider the non-1st rounders starters like Brady and that the past 4-5+ draft picks are still around, all the 1st round busts don’t really have a chance. Only 32 starting spots.

They don't really have a chance? Why are they losing their jobs to undrafted QBs? Why are they not good enough to beat out a late round pick for the #2 QB position? Name me a 1st round QB bust with less than 5 starts in the NFL.

Trubisky is closing out his career as an NFL QB at this very moment.

Mayfield, Darnold, Rosen, Wentz, Bortles, Manziel, Bridgewater, Manuel, Griffin, Luck, and Weeden are done.

Goff, Watson, Winston, and Mariota are on their way out.

Lynch is the only 1st rounder in the past 10 years you can claim did not get a shot.

Meanwhile, Cooper Rush, Tyler Huntley, Taylor Heinicke, PJ Walker, John Wolford, Jimmy Garoppolo, Nick Foles, Mike White, Andy Dalton, Geno Smith, Case Keenum, Gardner Minshew, Brandon Allen, Kyle Allen, Davis Mills, Tyrod Taylor, Colt McCoy, Nick Mullens, and Trevor Siemian are the QBs with roster spots.

Your argument doesn't hold up. These 1st rounders got their shot and failed to be better than non-1st rounders.

Kirk Cousins, Tom Brady, Dak Prescott, Russell Wilson, and Derek Carr are the only non-1st round QBs who have locked in their spots. So, there are 59 QB roster spots for these 1st rounders. There have been 39 1st round QBs selected since 2010. I think there are plenty of spots in the NFL for all of these 1st round QBs. They just are not as good as undrafted QBs like Heinicke. They continually failed to prove they could win in the NFL.

[NAS]

Brock Purdy looking like a legitimate NFL QB, wow