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Panthers favoring Levis?

kungfoodude

By kungfoodude,
in Carolina Panthers

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travisura Grand Master

travisura

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, CPantherKing said:

Yes, they do. Every year it is about how these college QBs are going to be the one to dominate the NFL like Tom Brady, Brock Purdy, and Jalen Hurts. All these 1st round QBs that are the best of the best.

I have had QBs make my board, but not every year. The last 5 1st round QBs that made my board with my algo are Patrick Mahomes 2017, Andrew Luck 2012, Aaron Rodgers 2005, Eli Manning 2004, and Peyton Manning 1998.

Averaging one 1st round QB every 5 years. The next QB I am expecting to make it on my board as a 1st round value is Arch Manning 2027. Looking for that Mahomes or Rodgers QB to sneak up on me this decade. I believe it is better to miss on a Roethlisberger and hit more often on 1st round QBs every 5 years than it is to hit on a Roethlisberger with the chance of wasting the years of a franchise on a Rosen, Mayfield, Darnold, Bortles, Russell, Goff, Wentz, or Bradford every 2 to 3 years.

I know 85% of all QBs who are invested in for 2 years as a franchise QB make it to the playoffs. Round does not matter (6th round to undrafted QBs do edge out 1st rounders). You can load up on undrafted QBs and get to the playoffs. I also know that 7.6% of 1st round QBs win for the coach/team that gives them their first franchise QB opportunity. 6th round to undrafted QBs win a SB for the coach/team that gives them their 1st opportunity at 5.8%.

So, is a 1.8% increased chance worth the draft capital of a 1st round draft pick? The cost of the first pick in the 6th round is 20 points. The cost of the last pick in the 1st round is 600 points. Defensive players have a better return on value with the 1st round pick for building a SB champion. How much is wasted with a 1st round pick that costs 1500 to 3000 points in draft capital for a 1.8% increase?

As for Richardson and Levis, both are out of their league against the top 20 QBs in the NFL, and they will easily be replaced by other QBs that will get an opportunity from past drafts and future drafts.

Levis will wow everyone with his accuracy and decision making. He is a great 7 on 7/combine QB. He is average in the clutch/situational football and toughness. His athletic ability in the pocket is poor. He sets and becomes a tree with very predictable pocket movement for edge rushers. If he starts to move out of the pocket he stops looking down field to pass and becomes a RB who will not pass. He rates poorly at moving the safeties. Then you factor in that he is a 3.1% TO QB (Darnold level).

Levis will not be on my draft board.

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kungfoodude Grand Master

kungfoodude

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1 minute ago, WOW!! said:

Keeping it a Buck.. With Reich here I’m cool on his QB decision in the draft.. He’s proven he can coach different types of Quarterbacks up..

Yeah, I may have my own opinions but even if he takes Levis/Richardson, I will give him a chance to work with them. He has earned some benefit of the doubt in his NFL career.

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ForJimmy Grand Master

ForJimmy

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1 hour ago, rippadonn said:

Yeah, people here foolishly thinks my picks are for best this best that.

Anybody that's been paying attention knows I'm not picking "the best". My picks are the most underrated capable of top performance if given the chance.

Justin Herbert was my underrated guy when everyone was all over Joe Burrow. Finding those diamonds in the rough can lead to long term success when you've done your scouting and your homework on a player.

IF Matt Corral can be the guy he was supposed to be as a projected (not by Ripp, by many experts) late first rounder, we hit the jackpot with a third round contract for a guy who may more likely than not give the same performances that made him a blue chip recruit we'll before his outstanding 2yrs at Ole Miss a non powerhouse program.

The real goal to sustainable success is not drafting Drake Maye or Cam but if you can find a Tom Brady or Russell Wilson of your own so you can pay for elite defenders.

 

Justin Herbert, the top 10 pick diamond in the rough…. What about Trask and Carson Strong??

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ForJimmy Grand Master

ForJimmy

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People want to pretend like they know the next great QBs, the one guy even claims to have an “algorithm” that can predict it. Let’s be honest most professional scouting teams miss more than they hit on QB prospects. We all will have terrible takes for or against QBs in the draft, it’s just part of it.

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amcoolio Mentor

amcoolio

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Matt Corral may have the tools, but he is one of those made of glass players that can't stay healthy. I mean the dude couldn't get out of preseason without a serious injury. And he's had problems in college too. He's not someone you can count on to be a starter.

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