Saints Sign Derek Carr to 4 year deal.

[stratocatter]

Looking at that money, I am cooler on it a but Carr plus keeping all our picks was the way to go. 
If not Carr then, next. Can’t help it. #9 all by its little self should get a QB. Honestly if I am gonna ridiculously overspend just to have something right now, I’d rather reach like hell with #9 than toss that and the most substantial part of our drafts in ‘24 and ‘25 to move 8 damned spots.  

Edited March 6, 2023 by stratocatter

[CPcavedweller]

15 minutes ago, Evil Hurney said:

Using this plus Rapsheets numbers puts Carr's cap hits around:

2023: $15M

2024: $15M

2025: $55M (likely a restructure or cut year)

2026: $65M

Well, that's a good deal for the Saints. His style of ball translates to longevity and if he is a Matthew Stafford type who just needed out of the black hole known as the Raiders organization, the Saints will be set. 

[Seltzer]

1 minute ago, joemac said:

Seems we say this about the Saints every season, and every season they manage to get under the cap and sign the guys the want to anyways...

You're right on one level, but dig into the numbers and you'll realize they have reached an unsustainable salary cap level no other team ever has.  Even when they were $100M+ over the cap, they had a lot more flexibility in terms of restructures to close the gap and still potentially create cap to sign a big-ticket free agent.

The Saints are now in a situation where they will have to restructure every conceivable contract over the next 2-3 years just to be compliant with the cap, not to have any left other or to literally sign any other players.

It has already hurt the Saints depth tremendously over the past few years, and it's only going to get much worse b/c the only depth players will be draft picks (controlled salaries) or veteran league minimums.

The only conceivable way this even remotely works is for them to draft like 2017 every single year for the next few years.  B/c you literally cannot add talent at the open market rates in this scenario.

They are already borrowing 3-4 years in the future right now to make this work.  Carr was the last big signing they can make over the next 3-4 years (unless they want to borrow from 5+ years down the line).

And again, they really may hit the point where they can't field a full team under the salary cap.  It will be interesting to see what the NFL does then.  No other team is going to be cool with the NFL giving the Saints an exemption, but it could very well be a safety issue given how many players are typically injured combined with literally not having the cap space to sign anyone else.

This is not financial wizardry.  It is complete financial malfeasance.  This is an owner (Gayle Benson) who either doesn't understand the implications of this or like many Saints fans has come to believe the salary cap doesn't apply to them to sign off on this level of mismanagement.  Benson should really have someone from the outside advising her on the long-term implications of allowing this continue in the post Payton/Brees era b/c it's absolutely nuts.

Sean Payton took one look at the Saints roster and salary cap situation post Brees and decided he didn't want to clean it up.  And astoundingly, the mismanagement has only gotten worse since he left.

I don't die on many hills, but this is one I'm willing to.  There's over a 95% chance in my mind from a risk management perspective that this is an unprecedented debacle for the Saints over the next 5 years.

 

 

[Seltzer]

6 minutes ago, CPcavedweller said:

Well, that's a good deal for the Saints. His style of ball translates to longevity and if he is a Matthew Stafford type who just needed out of the black hole known as the Raiders organization, the Saints will be set. 

Please explain to me how this is a good deal?  B/c to me, this looks like a move that will set their franchise back 5+ years in the long term.

Old defense, zero depth, RB1 facing suspension, no proven receivers beyond Olave... the SB odds being the same pre- and post- Carr tell it all in my opinion.  There is zero strategic value to this signing.

So I'm sorry, I'm not even remotely seeing this is a good deal for the Saints.

There is minimal upside for 2023, and an ungodly amount of downside over the next few years.  IMHO, the Panthers (outside of Sean Gilbert), have never made a move this questionable and with this much risk.

[NanuqoftheNorth]

19 minutes ago, Mr. Scot said:

That sounds like typical Saints math.

Yeah it does.

1. Guessing the third year is essentially the big payoff and the 4th year never happens w/either a restructure or cut.  Still need more details on this contract.

2.  Carr must not have been getting positive vibes from the Panthers.  Otherwise, why settle for 15 mil in years one and two from the Saints before hearing the Panthers out?

[Verge]

We were never going to pay Carr that much. I think there was legitimate interest at the right price, but it realistically was never going to happen. If anything kudos for making the Saints rush and overpay for him. 

[shaqattaq]

3 hours ago, Jon Snow said:

The guaranteed money is all that matters.  It could be 20 yr 10 billion dollar contract but if only 50 mil is guaranteed then that's all it's worth. 

[Mr. Scot]

Just now, NanuqoftheNorth said:

Yeah it does.

1. Guessing the third year is essentially the big payoff and the 4th year never happens w/either a restructure or cut.  Still need more details on this contract.

2.  Carr must not have been getting positive vibes from the Panthers.  Otherwise, why settle for 15 mil in years one and two from the Saints before hearing the Panthers out?

Think it was Breer who said the Saints were always his preferred destination (maybe Fowler if not Breer).

We weren't gonna pay what they paid so he'd have to have preferred us for other reasons...and apparently didn't.

[PantherFanInPhilly]

3 hours ago, Sub Zero said:

Kamara just got indicted and probably going to serve a suspension for jumping a guy in Vegas on Tape!!! Plus he has declined.. They are going to cut Thomas because they can’t pay him 20 mil this season.. This team is trying to avoid a free fall that is coming regardless..

Speaking of Michael Thomas, I saw he just tweeted "Thank God" about the Carr signing. 

[NanuqoftheNorth]

4 minutes ago, Mr. Scot said:

Think it was Breer who said the Saints were always his preferred destination (maybe Fowler if not Breer).

We weren't gonna pay what they paid so he'd have to have preferred us for other reasons...and apparently didn't.

From the outside looking in, Carr has put himself into a situation with the Saints that promises to be as tumultuous as the one he was in with the Raiders.

But he got paid.

[Mr. Scot]

2 minutes ago, NanuqoftheNorth said:

From the outside looking in, Carr has put himself into a situation with the Saints that promises to be as tumultuous as the one he was in with the Raiders.

But he got paid.

I get the personal connection with Dennis Allen.

That said, Allen might be the one NFL coach who makes Matt Rhule look competent.

[NanuqoftheNorth]

3 minutes ago, Mr. Scot said:

I get the personal connection with Dennis Allen.

That said, Allen might be the one NFL coach who makes Matt Rhule look competent.

To me this contradicts the narrative coming from Carr's camp of a guy with a chip on his shoulder looking to prove something to the Raiders.

What it says to me is that Carr's priority was getting paid. 

Saints simply have too many glaring issues when it comes to salary cap and coaching not to notice. 

[PantherPhann89]

5 hours ago, Khyber53 said:

Not sure how they have the money to do that, they were mortgaged to the hilt. He's a good QB but man, the cupboards are bare there.

That team is going to be living a post-Mardi Gras hangover for the next few seasons.

 

They seem to do it year after year...

[Seltzer]

1 minute ago, PantherPhann89 said:

They seem to do it year after year...

Enron's finances looked great until they didn't. 

Everyone thought Bernie Madoff was a genius until he wasn't.

You can navigate a lot of financial situations in this world with accounting tricks, but at some point math is still math.  You can't make 2+2 not equal 4 forever.

Go to overthecap and actually dig into the numbers.  There are no easy fixes the next few years with the Saints cap.  The cap has been kicked to the point I honestly wonder how they will field a 53 man roster in a couple of years if they face even an average amount of injuries and need replacements.

Every team in the league could do what the Saints have.  They haven't b/c eventually you do have to pay the piper.

I'll give credit to Dennis Allen for trying to buy some job security.  He was the only one who was willing to clean up Sean Payton's mess, and it will be even harder to find someone to clean up the bigger mess he is going to leave.

I really am surprised someone from the outside is not advising Gayle Benson better.  In all of sports, I can't ever remember this level of financial malfeasance being celebrated.