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Cynthia Frelund with an interesting analytics look at CJ Stroud and Bryce Young


TheSpecialJuan
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5 hours ago, TheSpecialJuan said:

In my models, Stroud has the highest floor of any QB in Year 1. Why? He has the sturdiest base, per computer vision. This means that his ability to throw, even when his platform isn’t ideal (like when he’s under pressure), forecasts to result in the fewest turnover-worthy plays. If Carolina is able to acquire another above-average or better WR (DeAndre Hopkins, maybe??) to pair with Stroud, Frank Reich would have an offense with a top-15 ceiling

- Young’s Alabama film rates him the best college QB in this class, per computer vision. There is some extra volatility in projecting him to the next level, though. When his feet are set and he’s on platform, he ranks in the top 15 percent of my 10-season sample -and he can get his feet set under duress. However, he had one of the longest times to throw while not under pressure last season (3.02 seconds, per PFF, ranking T-153rd). When you look into why, you’ll see he dropped back farther on average than the rest of the top passers in this class. Looking at QB comps from past drafts, passers who consistently had deep dropbacks have not fared well at the pro level unless their O-line -- specifically the tackles -- are able to hold off pressure well and recover when a rusher has a great second (or third) effort.

https://www.nfl.com/news/cynthia-frelund-2023-nfl-mock-draft-2-0-packers-select-wr-jaxon-smith-njigba-fal

Damn good stuff.   

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Some interesting in depth comments from opposing coaches in this new mock draft as well 1.CJ 2.Bryce

  

 We heard when Bill O’Brien got there, Bryce ended up teaching him the early stages of their offense. My only concern is that he’s little. At some point one of these gigantic interior guys is gonna land on him and you’ll be scared that he’s not gonna get up. His size scares me because against us, he really didn’t escape. We ran him down three or four times. We’ve got some good athletes, but those are the athletes that you’re trying to run away from at that level.”

“If he’s got time, he’s gonna kill you. His arm is good in person but Hendon Hooker has a stronger arm. He’s at his best extending plays in the pocket, and he throws dimes. He also has a very good feel on touch and when to rifle it in there. We changed significantly (scheme-wise) before we played him. We ran Fire Zone and Cover 0 and really heated him up, and I didn’t think he saw it that well when there’re athletic 6-5 dudes running down your throat. I’m not sold on him. I’d take C.J. before him.”

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9 minutes ago, Jackie Lee said:

Some interesting in depth comments from opposing coaches in this new mock draft as well 1.CJ 2.Bryce

  

 We heard when Bill O’Brien got there, Bryce ended up teaching him the early stages of their offense. My only concern is that he’s little. At some point one of these gigantic interior guys is gonna land on him and you’ll be scared that he’s not gonna get up. His size scares me because against us, he really didn’t escape. We ran him down three or four times. We’ve got some good athletes, but those are the athletes that you’re trying to run away from at that level.”

“If he’s got time, he’s gonna kill you. His arm is good in person but Hendon Hooker has a stronger arm. He’s at his best extending plays in the pocket, and he throws dimes. He also has a very good feel on touch and when to rifle it in there. We changed significantly (scheme-wise) before we played him. We ran Fire Zone and Cover 0 and really heated him up, and I didn’t think he saw it that well when there’re athletic 6-5 dudes running down your throat. I’m not sold on him. I’d take C.J. before him.”

Some really great breakdowns and details on there. Thanks for sharing. The Athletic is such a good read, well worth paying for.

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Wow some very good info in this thread. Thank you all.

I concur with Rayzor. As we get further into this process and closer to the draft CJ looks to be atop the list with Young and AR next as the talented but riskier options.

Edited by frankw
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28 minutes ago, Martin said:

That was really interesting. Didn’t realize Young drops that far back, that’s a tough one for any OT. Now the question is if he drops that far back to make it easier to see over the line? 🤪

If he needs to drop back so far to see over the line….in the NFL that’s a lot harder to do. 

I look at Young’s game against Texas as a good example of what he could look like in the pros. Young was under pressure the entire game and largely ineffective until the very last drive and finally evaded a sack to make a big play. I’m concerned if he can’t withstand an average college defense’s pressure, what will he do against NFL caliber D-Lineman? At his size he will need to get the ball out fast and dropping by 7 steps and surveying the field isn’t always an option when you’re playing a team with good pass rushers.

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