If Bryce busts, was that the worst trade in the history of the NFL?

[Shaqil915]

1 hour ago, KillerKat said:

2nd to the Trey Lance trade.

People will barely remember that trade 10 years from now because how good the 9ers still are. Bryce is going to have a 30 for 30 made on him at the rate he’s going. The bears can trade the 1st overall next year for multiple 1sts if they want.

[LinvilleGorge]

13 minutes ago, jfra78 said:

The trade was bad, but not as bad as the pick.  The pick is why they will get the #1 next year. 

If we'd drafted Stroud no one would be complaining.

[TN05]

49 minutes ago, Selltheteamtepper said:

Tepper is going to F this up even more and decide everyone needs to go and start auctioning off disgruntled defensive assets; Brown, Horne, Burns, Woods, etc. Those trades will also go down in history as bad trades as well.

He's going to do this while refusing to admit that this team’s strength is defense, the defensive core is good, and outright dismissing the idea of a defensive coach in favor of whatever shiny new offensive coordinator he can convince to come here. And it will fail, and he’ll learn nothing.

[Sean Payton's Vicodin]

It's the Herschel Walker trade of the 21st century.

[Manna]

It’s bad because we had to be the ones to make it. 

[CPantherKing]

After reading many of these posts, I believe many people are not wanting to account for everything that was given up for Bryce Young. He is the most expensive & costly trade in NFL history.

CMC, DJ Moore, Jalen Carter, #1 2024 pick (Caleb Williams), #33 2nd round pick (call it a late 1st round value).

That's a bust that will always equal 5 1st round picks (including 3 top 10 picks).

Use the draft chart to calculate this and you get picks 1, 8, 9, 28 & 33 for 3000, 1400, 1350, 660 & 580 respectively. A total of 6990.

Sean Gilbert was a bust value of 2900.

Ricky Williams was a bust value of 4469.

Herschel Walker was a bust value of 6969.

You could trade an entire 2 drafts (14 picks) while holding a top 3 pick from every round & it would be the same as the Bryce Young trade.

It's really that bad.

[KillerKat]

So who would be the top 3 worst of all time?

Most are considering the whole situation, otherwise the trades themselves would be Walker, Lance, and Young.

While considering the situation I think the top 2 are Walker, then Young. Maybe The Ricky Williams trade at #3 where they traded the whole draft for him yet were 3-13. However, that situation is weird because Willliams wasnt a bust, but the team still sucked. 

[BY9Franchise]

No the trade would have been worth it for Stroud at the end of the day just for the trade (which gave the power to draft Stroud) was WORTH what they traded..... unfortunately they didn't take the guy whose value was worth it that's on them! With Stroud it also wouldn't have been the #1 in 2024

[d-dave]

Sadly, hindsight is always 20/20.  Someone was going to draft Bryce first overall.  It was us, and then we turn in one of the worst seasons of offensive football I've ever witnessed.  Bryce is not completely responsible for all the problems.  There are plenty of example of how bad the supporting cast and play calling is.  Bryce bears a TON of responsibility for the problems on offense as well.  He's regressed for the past several weeks.  

Now all that said - unless one of y'all has a time machine (where's Doc Brown??), we're stuck where we are.  We can replay the what ifs, but it doesn't change the fact that Bryce Young will be on the roster for at least the next year or two and those draft picks are done and gone.  Again, you can't change what's already happened.

Now it's time to hold the architect of these trades to task: Scott Fitterer.  He's missed badly on draft and FA signings.  We've gotten worse each year, no matter the coach.  The only head coach worth a damn was Steve Wilks.  Who wouldn't love to go back to Wilks ball?  But he's going to possibly go to the Super Bowl this season.  

We need a new GM to rebuild this pile of turds.  I don't envy whoever takes that job.

[Shotgun]

Yes

[LinvilleGorge]

23 minutes ago, d-dave said:

Sadly, hindsight is always 20/20.  Someone was going to draft Bryce first overall.  It was us, and then we turn in one of the worst seasons of offensive football I've ever witnessed.  Bryce is not completely responsible for all the problems.  There are plenty of example of how bad the supporting cast and play calling is.  Bryce bears a TON of responsibility for the problems on offense as well.  He's regressed for the past several weeks.  

Now all that said - unless one of y'all has a time machine (where's Doc Brown??), we're stuck where we are.  We can replay the what ifs, but it doesn't change the fact that Bryce Young will be on the roster for at least the next year or two and those draft picks are done and gone.  Again, you can't change what's already happened.

Now it's time to hold the architect of these trades to task: Scott Fitterer.  He's missed badly on draft and FA signings.  We've gotten worse each year, no matter the coach.  The only head coach worth a damn was Steve Wilks.  Who wouldn't love to go back to Wilks ball?  But he's going to possibly go to the Super Bowl this season.  

We need a new GM to rebuild this pile of turds.  I don't envy whoever takes that job.

This is the only actual possibly hopeful situation. That Scott Fitterer is the problem. Because if he's not it's Tepper. I'm heavily leaning toward it being Tepper but it sure would be nice if it's Fitts because you can't fire the owner.

[electro's horse]

8 hours ago, Shaqil915 said:

People will barely remember that trade 10 years from now because how good the 9ers still are. Bryce is going to have a 30 for 30 made on him at the rate he’s going. The bears can trade the 1st overall next year for multiple 1sts if they want.

Also lance got hurt. It’s just not a fair comparison. 
 

also lol “if” Bryce busts 

[Jay Roosevelt]

The question is do you grade the trade and the pick together or separately?

I maintain that the trade itself wasn't bad at all. Compared to what other teams have given up to move up in similar deals we got a pretty fair deal. You can argue whether we should have traded up to begin with, but in terms of the actual trade itself the value wasn't horrible by historical standards.

Now, the pick... certainly it's not looking good right now. But even if Bryce does end up a total bust I still don't think it's the worst trade in NFL history. You gotta realize how much ground that actually covers.

[Captroop]

4 hours ago, Jay Roosevelt said:

The question is do you grade the trade and the pick together or separately?

I maintain that the trade itself wasn't bad at all. Compared to what other teams have given up to move up in similar deals we got a pretty fair deal. You can argue whether we should have traded up to begin with, but in terms of the actual trade itself the value wasn't horrible by historical standards.

Now, the pick... certainly it's not looking good right now. But even if Bryce does end up a total bust I still don't think it's the worst trade in NFL history. You gotta realize how much ground that actually covers.

I don't see how you can evaluate a trade except by taking the outcome into account. Evaluating the hypothetical value is pointless.

That's like rationalizing spending $100k on lottery tickets because you COULD have won the Powerball that's worth billions. That logic didn't work on my wife, and it doesn't work here.

The time to debate the value of the trade up to #1 should taken place before the pick was made. Now it's made, so the trade should be evaluated based on what Bryce cost us, what Bryce has produced, and the icing on this shitcake is witnessing the opportunity cost in the form of Stroud.