What is the probability...

[Zod]

What is the probability that 5 years from now we look back at this draft and realize the best QB from it was not a first rounder?

I say 60% probability.

[YourMomsLover]

5 years from now, Andrew Luck might be a huge bust. Maybe even a year from now.

[Jbro]

3.14%

[CarolinaPanthers8789]

^ Pie

[CatMan72]

I think Cam Newton will go in the 2nd round and turn out to be the best QB in this draft.

[Cyberjag]

80-90%

[Happy Panther]

Historically less than 50%. around 40% chance for the last 15 years

http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/fulldraft?type=position

Based on that i would say

2007 - Kolb 2nd or Edwards 3rd

2002 - Garrard 4th

2001 - If you take Brees (32nd pick) over Vick (1st)

2000 - Brady 6th

1997 - Jake Plummer

1996 - No QB taken

However many of those years (2001, 2000, 1997, 1996) only had 0 or 1 QB in the first.

Given 4 possible QBs in the top 10 I would put the probability at 10-20%

[Jackofalltrades]

Probable, don't think any of the top 2-3 QB's are that impressive.

[methodtoll]

and I got a feeling that we are going to take a close look at Andy Dalton from TCU considering that Danny Morrison was the AD there, he knows Dalton very well.

[rayzor]

we'll have people on here calling a trouble free cam newton a thug and screaming that mobile QBs don't work while newton has taken the bills to the playoffs 3 times.

meanwhile we'll be looking at the falcons, bucs, and saints from below still convinced that you don't need to have a great QB to be a good team and making excuses for the "bargain" we tried to find in the 4th round.

[Davidson Deac II]

50/50.

Of course, there is a possibility that we could have a shot at drafting Luck next year as well. Either we could get the top pick again, or his value could drop.

[chknwing]

I doubt 5 years from now, we still have the same players. And as far as the draft in whole, some qb drafted in the 6th round will be the best qb out of this draft.

[PanthersPhan18]

5 years from now, Andrew Luck might be a huge bust. Maybe even a year from now.

He won't be in this draft though.

[Highlandfire]

What is the probability that 5 years from now we look back at this draft and realize the best QB from it was not a first rounder?

I say 60% probability.

*cough...cough* Andy Dalton.....