The Bryce Young "Game Winning Drive" narrative needs to end

[JawnyBlaze]

OP is absolutely correct, but the media and stans need every little scrap of support (because there ain’t much) for their stance that Bryce is actually great but being held back by everyone around him. Bryce absolutely has some game winning drives and some clutch moments. But just like I’ve never been one to attribute a win to one player, a GWD should go to whoever was most impactful on the final drive of a game to take the lead. That’s been Bryce a few times. Certainly not 8, probably not half that. I would give him Dallas though, for that 4th down conversion if nothing else. That was critical and a great pass. 

[csx]

34 minutes ago, DaveThePanther2008 said:

Then just abolish the entire stat.  Every other QB in this league that gets one is heralded a star yet when Bryce does it, it's luck or it's not because of him.  

The bottom line he's the QB of record.  He normally gets all the blame when we lose even if you defense couldn't stop a 3 yr old. He should get the credit when as the player that touches every single snap (unless there is a trick play).  He follows the game plan and executes the plays that are given to him by our OC. Everyone wants to make it as if he calls the plays.  HE DOESN'T but he does execute what was called.  He the QB of record, he gets the credit when we score on a GWD.  

Abolish it or stop getting so bent out of shape about stats.

[JawnyBlaze]

6 minutes ago, Luciu5 said:

QB can only do what is asked of him.

That said, as long as W/L's are QB stats like the NFL treats them, I don't think it matters what the QB is asked to do on a game winning drive. But I don't agree that wins and losses should be treated like a QB stat like they are, but it is what it is like they say.

W/L being treated as a QB stat is one of the dumbest trends in all of football. If any one person should get that, it’s the coach. But even that is a flawed concept because it’s not uncommon for a bad or mediocre coach to be elevated by his players (we saw that right here in Carolina) or a good coach to be handicapped by his players.  

[Icege]

Pointing out that Bryce has had 8 GWDs and he wasn't the reason that the team had to comeback (sans vs. MIA) triggered... this?

Ooh wee mayne.

[WhoKnows]

1 hour ago, KillerKat said:

Ive never liked the term game winning drives because they include games where the QB was part of or was the reason the team was behind in the first place. Ive been arguing against this stat since the Delhomme years. It should only count when the QB is out of the equation of reasons why the team fell behind in the first place and is at least half the reason why he led the last drive to give them a lead. It shouldnt count if they just hand it off most of the time and the RB is on fire and they go down and score a TD or FG.

Agreed. When this first came up, someone posted that Young had been behind in the 4th quarter of 39 of 40 games. Some of those will be close and we pull out a win. Because we’ve basically always been behind, I’d bet that Young is far and away the leader in potential GWDs. I sure don’t feel like we’ve won a lot of games since we are 10-30 with Bryce. This year is our best year so far, but this is as cherry picked as you can get with a stat.

[Bear Hands]

A GWD is a defined stat.  And yeah, any comeback is a team effort...not all GWD's are default due to the QB.  Sometimes they don't do a ton, but that is a fault baked into all GWD stats, not just Bryce's.  So when the sample size is small, just like anything, it can be deceiving.  Then it's more on the eye-test and top down analysis.  So I get the perspective/premise to an extent... although I haven't seen that many overly touting this stat.  Looks like there's another thread but haven't read it yet.  

It is still a week-to-week situation.  Next step is stringing this type of play together.  He played great against the Boys, for whatever you think of their defense.  You still have to show up against the bad ones. Now it's time to keep it going and not turn into what we've become used to the past 3 years.  

[DaveThePanther2008]

1 hour ago, csx said:

Abolish it or stop getting so bent out of shape about stats.

I am far from being bent out of shape.  You guys want to put Young in a different box.  The criteria is set for a GWD.  It's not my problem that you don't like the criteria.   

Get a life and stop attacking people you don't agree with.  

[strato]

GWD is a one dimensional stat. There is no counter stat that I am aware of to make it 2D. 
It is an attempt to quantify the things that help you decide whether you want the ball in a certain QB’s hand down 4 with 4 minutes or so. Or not. 

As far as a counterpart to the GWD stat, like, call it GLD. The infamous XL Philly drop, was 2nd down and there were two more missed opportunities. 
So going by the criteria applied to calculate a GWD, wouldn’t that be a GLD? And guess who wears that - same as he wears a GWD where a RB broke a defense on a drive. And the QB gets credit. Rules have to be applied equally right? 
It just seems like the GWD stat is a mini W-L when you get down to it. 
 

So Young’s record as a starter is 10-30, his record in GWD-GLD according to the OP is 8 GWD, I don’t know how many GLD but wouldn’t you think there be examples inside those 30 losses?
 

Is it 8-30? 8-20? How do you assess that? 
 

 

[3838]

13 hours ago, electro's horse said:

This is something that has irritated me for a while. I'm going to address his play during these "game winning drives," 8 of them apparently, clear up some nomenclature, and address some points specifically.

The games in question. 

Also responding to this 

What is a Game Winning Drive?

This is an undefined term and therefore can be whatever the person using it wants it to be. The term itself removes context from a result which lends itself to be used by people arguing in bad faith. Some people like to attribute every time Bryce is on the field in a situation like this to him "winning the game," or just kind of associating him with a "Game Winning Drive" and leaving it open ended. There's no criteria for what a GWD is. If you had a spectrum of what this could encompass it, on one end you'd have a single player being responsible, and on the other you'd have all 11. Put another way, a QB going 9/9 for 99 yards and rushing the final yard himself is on one end of the spectrum, and on the other is the blocking tight end who was just kinda there. Hey, he was on the field too. 

For these purposes, I'm going to hedge and say a GWD is something you know when you see it. I'm not going to claim Bryce hasn't had one, but I'm absolutely not going to give him credit for every one of them. Reasonable people can disagree at the margins, but generally I think we'll be in accord more than not. I also want to look at the context of these, because I think we need to keep in mind how the team got to that position. There's a certain "mystique" about the term game winning drive. Like all of a sudden, when the game is on the line, the QB just turns it on and becomes a better player and blah blah blah. Nothing else matters because he Just Wins Games

It neatly ignores the circumstances that led to a team needing a last second drive against some of the worst teams in the league, and this should be taken into consideration. This was an argument made in favor of Delhomme for years...until a certain game that we won't mention. 

In reality, defenses are tired by the end of the game, defensive coordinators will generally give up yards in exchange for clock, and offensive playcallers will be more aggressive. That's really it. 

But Fiz, why now? Why tonight?

People are building this narrative about Bryce Young because it allows them to overlook the rest of his performance, his role in getting the team into whatever hole they're trying to crawl out of, and minimizing the contributions of everyone else (or assigning blame to players other than him) to make him look like he's better than he is/being let down. People in the national media with motivations I can only speculate on are doing this and it's irritating.

Also it's very slow at work tonight and it's either this or reruns of ER. 

I'll be looking at the final drives here (more or less) when the Panthers were in a position to win or tie. I'll also be adding some context as a I go. So lets just look at these. 

2023

Houston at Carolina - 5/10 41 yds, FG 

The Panthers drove to the Houston 44, then ran it 6 times in a row for the final 12 yards before the Texans started diving offsides. Panthers weren't just killing clock; Bryce had already taken one sack on the drive (six on the day!), and I don't think any of us feel like Pineiro had a 60 yarder in him in 2023. He did have 5 FG in him though, which is all the scoring the Panthers could muster. It was enough. 

Game Winning Drive: eh, Bryce didn't really cover himself in glory here. If you think getting the team into range for a 60 yard attempt before letting the RB finish the job is a GWD, then we're going to have some problems. I'm generally kinda dubious of the whole "wow he set up a long range field goal for the win what a legend." Why yes early career Tom Brady was a fraud carried by Adam Vinatieri why do you ask 

Atlanta at Carolina - 5/6 53 yds, GW FG

Game Winning Drive: yeah, I think so. It was a miserable 9-6 win against the Desmond Ridder led Atlanta Falcons. Prior to this final drive, Bryce was a whopping 13/18 for 114 yds and the offense had managed 6 whole points. Hard for me to say here they weren't in the position to need a GWD because of how ineffective Bryce was. That said, I think it's fair he did this one on his own. Credit where credit's due little guy, you did it. 

2024

New Orleans at Carolina - 1/4, 38 yds

Game Winning Drive: not really. Panthers win 23-22. Sanders scored from 16 yards out on the ground, Carolina was only there because of a DPI (a theme with Bryce), Bryce took a sack on the 2 point conversion, and then the defense stopped the Saints afterwards. Prior to this Bryce had a very Bryce esque 15/22 133 1 Td 1 Int performance going so he was just kinda there. 

Again, this is where context comes into play. Completing 1/4 passes does not "leading a game winning drive" make. If that's the dividing line, everyone on the field led a GWD, so the term becomes meaningless. 

Carolina at Giants - 0/0 

Game Winning Drive: no matter what a GWD is, it's certainly not this, and if anyone argues differently you can disregard them. Daniel Jones fumbled on the first play of overtime, Panthers ran a couple times and kicked the game winning FG. Prior to this, Bryce was terrible. Panthers were up 17-7 with 5:31 in the 3rd quarter, on the back of Chuba. From that point on, Bryce went 2/6 for 14 yards. Panthers had two 3 and outs and got just 2 first downs. Panthers overcame him here. 

Arizona at Carolina - 0/0

Game Winning Drive: no. On the panthers second possession in overtime, Chuba ran it twice for 49 yards and a TD. On their first possession, Bryce completed a 1 yard checkdown, took a sack, and the Panthers punted after totaling -4 yards. Furthermore, Bryce couldn't convert a 3rd and 3 at the 2 minute warning up 3 points. Arizona got the ball back and tied the game. 

Carolina at Atlanta - 5/5, 71 yards 

Game Winning Drive: sure whatever have a day. For context, it's generally accepted in Atlanta sports media the defense was trying get the coordinator fired that day, which he was. I was at the game. I'm not saying the players had a conspiracy, but I'm not sure how it would look different if they did. but hey, as long as weird poo keeps happening against the Falcons, let it ride. 

Miami at Carolina - 3/5, 45 yards, TD 

Game Winning Drive: yes BUT. I don't want to re-litigate this. Briefly, the Dolphins have a historically bad defense, the Panthers were only trailing because of how badly Bryce played, the defense bailed the team out, and Rico was clearly the MVP. Trying to sneak this into a narrative about Bryce and his game winning drives is an attempt to hide how completely dogshit he was for most of the game. On second half drives to start, Bryce went....

0/1 passing, took a sack, FG

2/3 passing, 18 yards, Delay of Game on Bryce, punt

2/2 passing, 16 yards, took a sack, punt 

1/3 passing, 4 yards, punt 

1/1 passing, 4 yds, 2 defensive penalties, 43 yd run by Rico, 1 yd TD run

Absolutely dismal performance

Dallas at Carolina - 3/6, 25 yards, FG 

Game Winning Drive: Panthers had 34 yards rushing on this drive, and Rico rushed for more yards on the day than Bryce threw. People will want to point to the 7 yard slant to Renfrow, but that's one moment. Why do you need a 4th down conversion to kick a game winning FG against the worst defense in the league? The Renfrow catch is just as meaningful as the DPI (again) on 3rd and 7. Hard for me to say yeah Bryce gets credit for this and Rico doesn't. or Ryan Fitzgerald. People aren't going to be telling stories about where they were when Bryce got 25 yards passing to set up a 30 yard FG to beat the worst defense in the league. 

Conclusion

I'd say low end 3, high end 6 for what I'd actually credit Bryce for with having a game winning drive. Absolutely not for the Giants and Cardinals game. Saints game probably not. 

As far as questioning which games need a GWD because of Bryce, I'd argue Miami, New York, 2023 Atlanta, and Houston definitely. League average QB play and you don't need the heroics. Bryce had multiple chances to seal the game against the Cardinals in 2024 and couldn't do it. The defense picked off the Cardinals late in the 4th quarter at their 11 yard line after the Panthers went 3 and out, including a classic Bryce check down short of the line to gain on 3rd. 

About half of the time, it looks like these GWD, whomever is responsible for them, are happening in part because of what Bryce did or didn't do. I don't think league average QB play is too much to ask for. Panthers usually win these games despite of Bryce; he's an obstacle to be overcome. 

Stats

Taken in totality, in these situations Bryce's stats are 

7 games

17/26 passing for 233, 1 TD 

65% completion rating 

13 ypc

8.9 ypa

I'm not going to compare this to league average, I'm just going to point out you'd expect someone with 8 GWD to have more than 1 TD. 

Other side of this 

but what about the games in a similar situation where they DIDN'T win? Shouldn't we look at those games too? Maybe find ones where Bryce absolutely lost the game with a pick, or calling an audible into the wrong play, or spiking the ball with zero seconds on the clock after throwing into the middle of the field, or all of the turnover on downs?

Maybe also go into some of the games that have been mythologized, like the Eagles game that ended on a turnover on downs where Bryce had 3rd and 4 in Eagles territory and couldn't get a first down? Yeah...someone should do that...

Young man, ... you have way too much time on your hands.

[ProcessBlue2]

6 hours ago, TD alt said:

Winning ain't gonna make my eyes lie to me.

Context matters, and it will always matter in the game of football.

Wrong, winning is all that matters.

[csx]

35 minutes ago, DaveThePanther2008 said:

I am far from being bent out of shape.  You guys want to put Young in a different box.  The criteria is set for a GWD.  It's not my problem that you don't like the criteria.   

Get a life and stop attacking people you don't agree with.  

I was agreeing with you. Lighten up.

How was that not obvious?

 

Edited 6 hours ago by csx

[mav1234]

4 minutes ago, csx said:

I was agreeing with you. Lighten up.

How was that not obvious?

 

Tbf to that poster I thought you were advocating for getting rid of the stat.

I generally don't see the point in worrying about whether a QB has GWDs or not. There was a time when Cam was shredding defenses, people called into question whether he was clutch or not because he didn't have enough GWDs. It was dumb then.

I also think it's dumb to carry around Bryce's number of GWD without context.  But then, there aren't many stats where Bryce is particularly impressive, so I get that, and he does seem at his best at the end of games. What he does well doesn't really show up on the stat sheet, and what he does poorly absolutely does, so this "stat" is in some ways his most impressive.

[mrBdawg]

10 hours ago, CRA said:

Yeah, you can pick out 11 games from Bryce’s rookie season….where he accounted for just 3 total TDs.  

Hmmm….pretty sure that’s most definitely was Jimmy-esque.   It was historically bad QB play from Bryce.  Like I said, he would have been gone after his rookie season if he cost a 2nd round pick.  No second season.  

Bringing up Cam and Jake is the wild part.   Bryce isn’t better than PJ freaking Walker 

Putting Bryce with Jake and Cam is wild, so I guess the Bryce/Jimmy/PJ comparisons may be fair after that

PJ has 6 touchdowns to 16 interceptions and a 54% completion rate for his career. He couldn’t operate an offense.

I think we all just remember him fondly for that insane throw to DJ that, admittedly, Bryce could never hope or dream of even attempting  

[strato]

7 minutes ago, mrBdawg said:

Putting Bryce with Jake and Cam is wild, so I guess the Bryce/Jimmy/PJ comparisons may be fair after that

PJ has 6 touchdowns to 16 interceptions and a 54% completion rate for his career. He couldn’t operate an offense.

I think we all just remember him fondly for that insane throw to DJ that, admittedly, Bryce could never hope or dream of even attempting  

For some reason I thought the bargain basement underdog QB looked better not operating an offense than the insanely expensive super computer point guard not operating an offense. Excluding a few games.. It is an expectations thing.