read this you manchildren and apply it to everything in your life

[electro's horse]

Theres like some graphs and poo but long story short the draft is a crap shoot and no one is really better at it than anyone else

 

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2015/saints-draft-and-winners-curse

 

 

Research by Cade Massey of the Wharton Business School and Richard Thaler of the University of Chicago Booth School of Business concluded that teams generally overestimate their ability to identify and draft talent in comparison to other teams. They found that the differences between successful and unsuccessful teams were largely the result of chance rather than skill. Massey and Thaler recommended trading down in the draft in order to increase the chance of acquiring more talent. In other words, if the draft functions like a lottery, then the best strategy is to collect as many tickets as possible. This logic has long governed the draft-day tactics of teams like the New England Patriots and Green Bay Packers. Trading up isn't always a bad idea, though. By consistently trading down, teams accumulate extra assets that they can turn around and use to move back up for specific players. With additional picks, teams can more reasonably take chances on specific players while maintaining a stable of other selections to balance out the potential for failure. Loomis' draft-day behavior reveals that the Saints, like many other NFL teams, have failed to learn this particular lesson

[Dex]

So I need more girlfriends?

[Doyle]

 the draft is a crap shoot and no one is really better at it than anyone else

 

 

This is always how I felt playing fantasy football.  The draft became so boring I eventually just quit playing all together.

[Mother Grabber]

so, we should keep trading down and have 20, 7th round picks? yeah, not buyin that.

[Hotsauce]

I thought electro's horse was dead?

[Frank Hollywood]

Sad that students from Wharton and Booth would ignore simple logic. The draft isn't solely based on luck and shouldn't function as a lottery by simply trying to acquire as many picks as possible.

I follow the argument against trading up, however.

[UpstatePanther]

This article seems less about how successful teams are in the draft and more about how the Saints are screwing themselves.

What I gathered from this article is that the Saints will be a cellar dweller perhaps as soon as this year, a fact that brings indescribable joy to my heart. I also gathered that Gman has the Panthers on the path to sustained success in the vein of the Ravens.

[DamnItJake!]

so they graduated by chance and not by knowledge??So if I take a chance I have more chance of success? hmm maybe they should apply their knowledge to the Bears and they might not suck as much! Stupid article!

[MHS831]

Sad that students from Wharton and Booth would ignore simple logic. The draft isn't solely based on luck and shouldn't function as a lottery by simply trying to acquire as many picks as possible.

I follow the argument against trading up, however.

 

Correct, Frank Hollywood.  There are a ton of variables that determine the success of a player that simply aren't factored into the equation.  Removal of a player's proximal support system, new team culture, coach-player chemistry, system, work ethic, character, etc. etc. 

 

If they had a way to measure these things, in addition to the combine and the personal profiling, they might be able to compare enough players from the present and past to determine, with some degree of accuracy, that a player's chance of success changes when these variables are considered. 

 

And there are some things that they do not measure.  For example, emotional intelligence.  Very important when playing an emotional game, especially when fatigue and stress are compounded.

 

I proposed to the Panthers a series of tests to measure some of these things. 

 

Coach/Player chemistry:  What is the player's learning style?  Does the coach teach to that learning style?  How many learning aids are used to reinforced learning?  How is the playbook and film room knowledge applied to the practice and game fields?

 

Emotional Intelligence:  Breaks down the person's motivation, mental limitations, etc.  The player reflects on his performance under pressure and in social settings (locker room) based on these perceptions.  Develops better team chemistry and performance.

 

I sent a proposal to Jerry Richardson, who sent it to Danny Morrison.  Morrison wrote a letter to me at my POE (a local university) and said they liked the idea and were interested.  He said it was being sent to Marty Hurney and that Hurney would be in touch.  I never heard from Hurney.  A year later, Hurney was gone. 

 

[uncfan888]

More of something doesn't necessarily mean better... I believe the philosopher Christopher Wallace proposed that the more money you have, the more difficulties arise

[Fidel Cashflow]

Good stuff, thanks for sharing.

[frash.exe]

but but beligenius

[mbarbour21]

Sad that students from Wharton and Booth would ignore simple logic. The draft isn't solely based on luck and shouldn't function as a lottery by simply trying to acquire as many picks as possible.

I follow the argument against trading up, however.

Yeah, there is obviously some luck involved as far as players actually panning out. But there is work involved as well.

[Sean Payton's Vicodin]

yeah i have a hard time believing that some teams are just consistently luckier than others. the jaguars have 3 players remaining on their team from the 2007-2012 drafts. and one of them is that punter they took before russel wilson.