Corona Virus

[45catfan]

23 minutes ago, CRA said:

daily death projections for SC and NC don't really look promising.    SC shows a steady rise going to Oct 1 and NC really has more of a plateau going w/ a rise near Oct. 

Things will have to get really, REALLY bad for SC to start losing 25 people a day by October as the projections are estimating.  A typical day is about 6 deaths and a very bad day is 10-12.  These models are based off recent trends and lags several days.  Late last week SC had a couple of really bad days with a spike in deaths and record number of cases, but things have calmed back down for the time being.  Give it a few more days and if things stay at the current levels with no more spikes, those projections will trend back down some and not look quite as ominous.

[CRA]

11 minutes ago, 45catfan said:

Things will have to get really, REALLY bad for SC to start losing 25 people a day by October as the projections are estimating.  A typical day is about 6 deaths and a very bad day is 10-12.  These models are based off recent trends and lags several days.  Late last week SC had a couple of really bad days with a spike in deaths and record number of cases, but things have calmed back down for the time being.  Give it a few more days and if things stay at the current levels with no more spikes, those projections will trend back down some and not look quite as ominous.

SC was last at the 6 deaths per day back in mid April. 

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/south-carolina

at least per the site the government continues to use (2nd chart)

hope it does go down but with the cases trending up, positivity rate (more importantly) trending up....I would assume the death will go that way too in the upcoming weeks.  I agree 25 seems too high but I think the overall trend of the graph is likely right. 

wish people would stop calling this a second wave though.   this is still the first wave IMO. 

[45catfan]

38 minutes ago, CRA said:

SC was last at the 6 deaths per day back in mid April. 

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/south-carolina

at least per the site the government continues to use (2nd chart)

Averaging figures, thus the decimal in deaths.  Can't have a .4 of a death for example.   Trend lines typically work on gradual curves.  That's the reason I prefer bar graphs.  We have been averaging 8-9 daily deaths per week for a while, but you know how averages work.  So yes, some days we have as low as 6 deaths and some days as high as 12...generally speaking.

https://www.scdhec.gov/infectious-diseases/viruses/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/sc-demographic-data-covid-19

Edit: Weird, so you have to toggle from Reported Cases to Reported Deaths--it's the first bar graph once on the Reported Deaths page.  For some reason, the link reverts to reported cases.

Edited June 16, 2020 by 45catfan

[CRA]

1 hour ago, 45catfan said:

Averaging figures, thus the decimal in deaths.  Can't have a .4 of a death for example.   Trend lines typically work on gradual curves.  That's the reason I prefer bar graphs.  We have been averaging 8-9 deaths a week for a while, but you know how averages work.  So yes, some days we have as low as 6 deaths and some days as high as 12...generally speaking.

https://www.scdhec.gov/infectious-diseases/viruses/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/sc-demographic-data-covid-19

 

yeah, bar graphs are much neater IMO.  

Hopefully SC trends back down.   I suspect schools will be making more concrete decisions first of July and would prefer the numbers look much better than today when they make their decision.   

I take COVID very serious. But we have to take into account the kids are largely not impacted at all (well we don't know the long term aspect if it has an impact).   But staying home especially for the younger ones isn't healthy.   We as a society need to put an emphasis on protecting the vulnerable population.  But that does get tricky and hard for those that live in multigenerational homes when the kids go back.  

[electro's horse]

kids stayed "at home" for like 99% of human existence

even if we don't know the true threat to adolescents yet, we know the number 1 place covid is transmitted has been in the home, and who the fug knows about their parents/grandparents

especially in places like tennessee where all the parents are 28 going on 60.

[panthers55]

1 hour ago, CRA said:

yeah, bar graphs are much neater IMO.  

Hopefully SC trends back down.   I suspect schools will be making more concrete decisions first of July and would prefer the numbers look much better than today when they make their decision.   

I take COVID very serious. But we have to take into account the kids are largely not impacted at all (well we don't know the long term aspect if it has an impact).   But staying home specially for the younger ones isn't healthy.   We as a society need to put an emphasis on protecting the vulnerable population.  But that does get tricky and hard for those that live in multigenerational homes when the kids go back.  

The issue with schools isn't kids getting sick but being the vector to spread it to teachers, and their own families. As you note, multigenerational homes are becoming very common these days and the spread from schools reopening would be huge. And kids playing at home and using online instruction is fine as long as someone can take care of them. Parents who both work struggle to manage the kids at home unless one or both can also work from home 

[The NFL Shield At Midfield]

6 hours ago, 45catfan said:

I had been seeing stuff floating around about NYC's pols involvement before this video, but it was always second hand as sources were too afraid to come out directly (mostly nurses afraid of losing their jobs).  Two camps here, this lady is a freaking kook or she's telling the truth.  Even if she is being honest, she's going up against the NYC establishment so it's just going to get swept under the rug.  Shouldn't the NYC media at least do their due diligence to debunk it?  I mean, it's a very powerful accusation.  If it were a complete fabrication it should be easily and quickly debunked, correct?  Why completely ignore it as I'm sure someone, somewhere in the mega NYC media has seen this video.  Could it be they have no interest in seeing if there is any truth behind this and possibly bring further light to the situation?   Could it be they are willfully ignoring it in hopes it will just fade away?

Accusations and allegations (this video and other sources): 

-Admitting patients that tested positive with minor symptoms--$10,000 for admitting COVID-19 patients

-Prematurely putting patients on vents; most died.  Hospitals got $36,000 from insurers for vent patients  

-Coding non-coronavirus deaths as such to get earmarked money for having "treated COVID-19 patients"

-Putting COVID-19 patients in nursing homes with the most vulnerable populations

-Line item put in a budgetary bill eliminating culpability of nursing homes in coronavirus deaths, limiting litigation.

I mean, I could understand how this is a complete non-story...nothing serious at all about this, but Trump tripping down a walkway ramp is front page news.  The NYC media is either being very lazy digging into this or being tow-the-line accomplices by willfully turning a blind eye.  Which one is it?  

I feel bad that you wrote this book when if you Google this woman's name you'll find all the anti-vaxx non-profits registered to her name in Florida.  She's an activist trying to get famous.

e: Yeah it is a very powerful accusation, which is why if you're alleging a huge murder for profit scheme that would make the Mafia blush you need a mountain of evidence or I'm not going to believe you.  Give me multiple corroborating accounts from people who don't have a history in anti-vaccine activism or aren't allied with other kooks, give me a paper trail, give me all the proof that has to exist because of the dozens, possibly hundreds, of people in on this scheme.

What you're doing here is shifting the burden of proof:

Quote

Shouldn't the NYC media at least do their due diligence to debunk it?  I mean, it's a very powerful accusation.  If it were a complete fabrication it should be easily and quickly debunked, correct?

 

Edited June 16, 2020 by The NFL Shield At Midfield

[CBDellinger]

4 hours ago, Tbe said:

Sure, but given the risks you would think daily testing for staff would be required. It’s not that many people. 
 

Also, if a resident tests positive move them out. Lots of empty hotels out there.

Move them to a hotel?... away from the doctors and nurses on site and away from the medical facilities on site?  Who feeds them?  Makes sure they take their meds?  

I get what you’re saying but there’s a lot going on there.  They’d have to send them to a hospital.  

[The NFL Shield At Midfield]

8 hours ago, Captroop said:

Jesus.

Okay. I'm here to help you through this episode. Just follow my directions carefully.

1. Take off your tinfoil hat

2. Turn off OAN.

3. Google "Population Density USA".

4. Read.

5. Reflect on your vast expertise in epidemiology.

6. Realize you don't know wtf you're talking about.

7. Shut up about things you don't know about.

8. Never turn OAN back on. Ever.

This is what's going to happen

Eventually there is going to be some kind of revelation that some COVID-related fugery occurred somewhere as happens every day when we're talking about our half-broken for-profit monstrosity of a healthcare system.  Some non-COVID deaths coded as COVID.  Some severely edited "whistleblower" video from a dipshit like James O'Keefe or one of his surrogates where a hospital administrator talks about what a money maker COVID is.  You know it's going to happen eventually, and we all know what comes next.  

It doesn't matter if it squares with what they were claiming or if it was even anything all that rare in the hospital billing/insurance/federal aid arena- this has become such an ideologically heated issue that anything that seems to come remotely close to confirming their worldview will be seized on.  

[332nd]

8 hours ago, CaliPanthers said:

 

Bullpoo.

[45catfan]

57 minutes ago, The NFL Shield At Midfield said:

I feel bad that you wrote this book when if you Google this woman's name you'll find all the anti-vaxx non-profits registered to her name in Florida.  She's an activist trying to get famous.

e: Yeah it is a very powerful accusation, which is why if you're alleging a huge murder for profit scheme that would make the Mafia blush you need a mountain of evidence or I'm not going to believe you.  Give me multiple corroborating accounts from people who don't have a history in anti-vaccine activism or aren't allied with other kooks, give me a paper trail, give me all the proof that has to exist because of the dozens, possibly hundreds, of people in on this scheme.

What you're doing here is shifting the burden of proof:

 

a) That's all you got?  She wants to be famous. Alright then.

b) Investigative journalism is dead?  Depends if a score needs to be settled...we all know this.  OBJECTIVE investigative journalism is dead, that much I will agree with.

32 minutes ago, The NFL Shield At Midfield said:

Some severely edited "whistleblower" video...

c) So then, when there is investigative journalism done and it doesn't jive with your "view" it's automatically discredited.  Got it.

[mav1234]

8 hours ago, LinvilleGorge said:

NY definitely screwed up horribly and that's why I'm dumbfounded that they're trying to make Cuomo out to be some national hero. Having a brother who is one of those most prominent news anchors in the country is a big help in that endeavor.

 

Cuomo can go fug himself.

Edit: NY can have fuged up without it being a massive conspiracy..

Edited June 17, 2020 by mav1234

[332nd]

6 minutes ago, 45catfan said:

a) That's all you got?  She wants to be famous. Alright then.

He doesn't need any more. He provided as much evidence as she did.

b) Investigative journalism is dead?  Depends if a score needs to be settled...we all know this.  OBJECTIVE investigative journalism is dead, that much I will agree with.

K.

c) So then, when there is investigative journalism done and it doesn't jive with your "view" it's automatically discredited.  Got it.

No, that's not it. 

[45catfan]

17 minutes ago, 332nd said:

He doesn't need any more. He provided as much evidence as she did.

 

 

K.

 

 

No, that's not it. 

LOl, she has undercover video with audio and he posted a quick dismissive opinion, so yeah...they are completely on par with one another.