Realistic trade values for Watson

[AU-panther]

Every Watson thread has people throwing out crazy offers.  Don't get me wrong, I would love to trade Teddy and Shaq for Watson also , but we need to be somewhat realistic, so lets look at some former trades for big name players.

RG3 - three 1st and a 2nd

Khalil Mack - two 1st, 3rd, and a 6th for Mack and a 2nd

Jeremy Tunsil - two 1st, a 2nd for Tunsil and a WR (stills)

Jaylen Ramsey - two 1st and a 4th

Jamal Adams - two 1st, a 3rd, a player for Adams and a 4th

So a LT, CB, Edge, and Safety all fetched at least two 1st round picks, an unproven QB fetched three 1st round picks, so what does a top 5 QB entering his prime fetch?

Would you trade any combination of 2 of the players above for Watson? most people would

Personally I think its going to take some combination of 5 (1st round picks and/or young players) to make it work.  If a team has a really high draft pick such as the Dolphins or Jets it might be less.  You have to remember that the Jets #2 pick is like 3 first round picks of other teams.  It would cost us that much to move up from 8, let alone teams that have later draft picks.  They can easily flip that pick for more picks or draft a QB of the future.

Best guess for us, I'm thinking our next three #1s plus some combination of two of CMC/Burns/Brown/Chinn.

Also before someone starts talking about his no trade clause, its not going to have the impact that some think.  He stands to lose a lot of money if he refuses to play.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[TheCasillas]

Every year and every situation is different. No rule of thumb on this.

I mean who would have thought of Hopkins going for what he did was unreal.

[Htarnation4.0]

I believe the giveaway could be too substantial to make it worth it. I would be OK with TB, CMC and 2 #1s

[LinvilleGorge]

I think the conversations starts with three 1sts or the equivalent. So yeah #8, next year's 1st and someone like CMC could potentially be in the ballpark.

[TheBigKat]

He could be had for:

8 this year

first next year

a player like DJ

[Popsickle]

Too much, Watson is a great player but what it will take to get him will handicap most franchises for the foreseeable future. 
 

Edit: Also, @LinvilleGorgeis spot on, starting point is 3 1st rounders and a top player at their respective position. 
 

Edited January 20, 2021 by Popsickle

[JawnyBlaze]

For every example of someone overpaying in a trade as listed above (especially leremy tunsil and Ramsey), there’s crazy under paying for Hopkins, Moss, and others. The only real evidence we have is that disgruntled players usually trade for less than players on teams rebuilding and trying to shed contracts like tunsil and Ramsey 

[JawnyBlaze]

He may very well command three firsts. And I’d be tempted to pay it. Or he might go for a first and a good not great player. No one knows at this point. There are often crazy unpredictable trades

[TheBigKat]

Mack who was at the prime:

Bears got Mack and a 2020 second-round round pick and a conditional 2020 fifth-round pick.

Raiders get: 2019 first-round pick, 2020 first-round pick, 2020 third-round pick, 2019 sixth-round pick.

A franchise QB carries more merit than a franchise DE....

 

If you want Watson, it'll be costly

[ThPantherFan]

43 minutes ago, AU-panther said:

Best guess for us, I'm thinking our next three #1s plus some combination of two of CMC/Burns/Brown/Chinn.

Too expensive.  I wouldn't give up 3, 1st round picks.

 

[SmokinwithWilly]

Just now, spizike99x said:

Every time one of these threads are started I just shake my head at this fan base. Most of you guys are so inept to think Watson will turn this franchise around singlehandedly, with all the glaring holes we still need to fill. Pathetic. 

I dont think anyone is so naive to think he will single handedly turn around the franchise. What he does give you, barring injury, is an above average to excellent skill level at the most important position on the field for the next 10 years. That is one hell of a piece to build around. Every team has holes and always will. A good GM can fill them well  enough in a couple of years or less to field a contender. 

[ThPantherFan]

3 minutes ago, spizike99x said:

Every time one of these threads are started I just shake my head at this fan base. Most of you guys are so inept to think Watson will turn this franchise around singlehandedly, with all the glaring holes we still need to fill. Pathetic. 

I wouldn't go that far.  Many on here is football savvy.  You are correct that no one player will turn this team around. 

[onmyown]

If you can’t find/develop a franchise QB with three first round picks, especially one in the top 10, there’s some serious issues with your ability to field a winning team...that’s essentially what you’re saying doing this, except you’re giving up a good player and possibly more picks, as well as paying far more than a rookie contract to say so.

You’re also saying that Weatherly, Paradis with zero other olineman, Boston and Jackson, possibly without CMC and definitely without being able to afford resigning DJ or Moton, and not having any draft capital to replace anyone is perfectly fine so long as we have Winston.

It’s amazing to me how many people here whined about cams oline and weapons clearly demonstrating a QB literally can’t do it all yet don’t realize how dumb this would be.

If you want to become the 4 win Texans this years, this would be a perfect blueprint to do so. A team like the 49ers or Dolphins make a poo ton more sense.

It’s beyond stupid.

Let’s let this new regime show some competency drafting the future and build like the chiefs, bills, Ravens, Cardinals etc. did before we take the moronic route.

Edited January 20, 2021 by onmyown

[Moo Daeng]

I wouldn't worry too much about the wild trade scenarios that fans mention online.