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The Past 10 years of First Round QB Drafting


CarolinaSunday
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6 hours ago, CarolinaSunday said:

There is a lot of discussion in the various threads about whether the Panthers should draft a QB at #8, go after a free agent, or trade for a QB (you know who I mean).  Threads have popped up about what it would likely cost to trade for a QB and whether any of the upcoming free agents are worth taking a shot on.  

To help round out the discussion, I made a chart (I love charts) of the QBs who have been drafted in the first round in the past ten years and how long they were with their respective teams.  It was interesting to me that the earliest draft in which a QB was still with the team that drafted him was *2016*.  Although there are earlier drafted QBs still in the league, and some of them are still starting somewhere, I think you can see there are not a lot of barn burners here. I think drafting a QB is a crap shoot and you don't really know what you're going to end up with.

Of this list, I see 4 QBs who made it to the SB (depending on how you count Carson Wentz, I counted him since he was a large reason why they made it) and 1 QB who has won the SB (did not count Wentz here since he did not play). (Josh Allen could be added to this tabulation this year, we'll see).

And 2013... woof, man.

image.thumb.png.03a7d770008ea8a8148a6b191818a2ca.png

 

Would love to see the data on rounds 2-7 of the same time period 

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16 hours ago, CarolinaSunday said:

There is a lot of discussion in the various threads about whether the Panthers should draft a QB at #8, go after a free agent, or trade for a QB (you know who I mean).  Threads have popped up about what it would likely cost to trade for a QB and whether any of the upcoming free agents are worth taking a shot on.  

To help round out the discussion, I made a chart (I love charts) of the QBs who have been drafted in the first round in the past ten years and how long they were with their respective teams.  It was interesting to me that the earliest draft in which a QB was still with the team that drafted him was *2016*.  Although there are earlier drafted QBs still in the league, and some of them are still starting somewhere, I think you can see there are not a lot of barn burners here. I think drafting a QB is a crap shoot and you don't really know what you're going to end up with.

Of this list, I see 4 QBs who made it to the SB (depending on how you count Carson Wentz, I counted him since he was a large reason why they made it) and 1 QB who has won the SB (did not count Wentz here since he did not play). (Josh Allen could be added to this tabulation this year, we'll see).

And 2013... woof, man.

image.thumb.png.03a7d770008ea8a8148a6b191818a2ca.png

 

6 of the 11 first QB taken have panned out, while 2 of 10 2nd pick (no 2nd pick in 2013) in the first round have panned out.   Jones and Tua still questionable.

So unless you have the first pick you are gambling on greatness far more than the first pick.

 

Edited by DaveThePanther2008
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16 hours ago, AceBoogie said:

2010-2016 was a terrible time to need a QB. 

Perhaps.  I think it's more that that was when the NFL really began to drastically change in how teams gained success.  The league shifted toward more of a modern passing attack (many teams trying to emulate the 2007 Pats), and the old school coaches just couldn't adapt.  Long story short, I think plenty of talented players failed because teams were depending so heavily on young QBs so early, and many organizations were just throwing stuff at the wall to see what would stick as far as their offenses were concerned.

Nowadays college programs are grooming their QBs to be day one starters.  

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Thank you for posting this. Your chart points out that 2010, 2011, 2013, 2014, 2015 were really bad years to find your "franchise QB" in the first round. When I get the time I'm going to take a look at the other QB's in those classes just to see how they panned out or if any are still in the NFL

Your data does show that the higher a QB is drafted the more likely he is to have success. Still, QB evaluation is an inexact science. As someone noted at this time Brady, Wilson, Cousins, (and I'd add Dak Prescott to the list) are quality QB's and none of them were drafted before 3rd round.  Kurt Warner is in the Hall of Fame. He was undrafted and had to spend time in inferior leagues before he was given a shot. Tony Romo had a respectable career and he was also undrafted.  I think that's a reflection on the scouting process and not the players themselves. And sometimes the amount of fight and desire (which is immeasurable) you have inside overcomes any physical limitations a player might have. 

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11 minutes ago, DeAngelo Beason said:

Perhaps.  I think it's more that that was when the NFL really began to drastically change in how teams gained success.  The league shifted toward more of a modern passing attack (many teams trying to emulate the 2007 Pats), and the old school coaches just couldn't adapt.  Long story short, I think plenty of talented players failed because teams were depending so heavily on young QBs so early, and many organizations were just throwing stuff at the wall to see what would stick as far as their offenses were concerned.

Nowadays college programs are grooming their QBs to be day one starters.  

I think colleges are grooming their players to win games in their system. Trevor Lawerence is going to be a better pro than college player. Few college programs are actually building systems so that QBs are ready for the NFL

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14 minutes ago, AceBoogie said:

I think colleges are grooming their players to win games in their system. Trevor Lawerence is going to be a better pro than college player. Few college programs are actually building systems so that QBs are ready for the NFL

Agreed.  When I say "day one starter" I don't necessarily mean that the QBs are being groomed in pro systems, but rather, that the offenses are being built around them to such a degree that they truly are the centerpiece of the whole program's success.  They're used to carrying the team on their backs from very young ages, and that experience with pressure allows them to step in day one and be ready to lead a pro organization.

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40 minutes ago, SCO96 said:

Thank you for posting this. Your chart points out that 2010, 2011, 2013, 2014, 2015 were really bad years to find your "franchise QB" in the first round. When I get the time I'm going to take a look at the other QB's in those classes just to see how they panned out or if any are still in the NFL

Your data does show that the higher a QB is drafted the more likely he is to have success. Still, QB evaluation is an inexact science. As someone noted at this time Brady, Wilson, Cousins, (and I'd add Dak Prescott to the list) are quality QB's and none of them were drafted before 3rd round.  Kurt Warner is in the Hall of Fame. He was undrafted and had to spend time in inferior leagues before he was given a shot. Tony Romo had a respectable career and he was also undrafted.  I think that's a reflection on the scouting process and not the players themselves. And sometimes the amount of fight and desire (which is immeasurable) you have inside overcomes any physical limitations a player might have. 

Take those players that have made it from later rounds and divide by the number of players drafted. Do the same for the first round.  Your chances are exponentially higher in the first. 
 

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Sometimes I feel like even a breakdown within the first round is needed for some stats like these.  The talent level between a top 3 pick and a end-of-round pick (even in first) can be staggering.  Then also combine that with teams picking later are better.

Take Mahomes for example.  He was drafted 10th.  But was he drafted by the "10th worst team"?  No.  Chiefs were originally drafting 27th.  They were a playoff team that just went 12-4.

Now, I am not saying Mahomes would have been a bust if a typical team drafting in the top 10 woulda grabbed him.  Only I am not as confident he'd be regarded as a NFL MVP.

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