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Some good roster analysis from Gantt


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4 minutes ago, BrianS said:

I think "mortgage the future" is confusing people.  The basic premise is that we had the opportunity to "draft" one of three players - in actual fact we could have had two of three - and we chose Darnold.  That choice is one that Fitts and Rhule will have to live with / answer for if it goes badly.

They would live with it even if they had drafted Fields. 

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1 minute ago, Moo Daeng said:

Opportunity cost isn't one sided. There was an opportunity to get a QB the staff believes is as good of a prospect as the draft options as well as another top prospect. Opportunity cost pertains to that outcome as well. Rhule pretty clearly explained this.

It does. Rhule is keenly aware of the bust rate of 1st round QB while seemingly oblivious to the reality that historically 1st round bust reclamation projects fare considerably worse. 

I get it, he's hesitant to bet big on a QB because he doesn't want to lose big but ultimately, if he doesn't find a franchise QB he'll lose his job. They're a requirement in today's NFL and Tepper knows it, hence why he preaches coach, GM, QB. Everything else is a want. Those are the three must have pieces.

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1 hour ago, LinvilleGorge said:

People lost their minds when I said the Panthers have mortgaged their future on Sam Darnold, then Gantt of Panthers.com writes...

The Panthers did a lot of things over the weekend to make Darnold's life more secure. That's good news, but it also puts the bright light back on their quarterback.

By not drafting one, and picking up Darnold's fifth-year option, they've cast their lot with the former Jets first-rounder, and done their best to insulate him. Now it's on him to prove that he can grow into the job and earn that trust. It may not be New York, but there's still plenty of pressure.

That's NFL political talk for "mortgaging the future".

It's nothing of the sort.

Dude seriously, I'm used to you being logical and level headed but you have absolutely lost your mind over the Darnold stuff.

He's our quarterback now. He'll succeed or he won't. If he doesn't, we'll try something different.

This is not the end of the world.

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The whole "mortgaging the future" tag might lean a bit to the extreme. The cost of a second round pick vs a potential franchise qb sounds pretty cheap. Yes I know we passed on fields and Mac jones just like every one in the league including the ravens on Lamar Jackson. 

I don't think darnold will look bad enough to sink the franchise or on the other end push us into the playoffs so the results will probably be middling for a while. 

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2 minutes ago, Mr. Scot said:

It's nothing of the sort.

Dude seriously, I'm used to you being logical and level headed but you have absolutely lost your mind over the Darnold stuff.

He's our quarterback now. He'll succeed or he won't. If he doesn't, we'll try something different.

This is not the end of the world.

I get it, man. The concept of opportunity cost (and sunk cost for that matter) is lost on most people. Hell, most successful businesses don't even grasp it.

The reality is that successful 1st round bust reclamation projects are pretty rare and we chose to forego the opportunity to add a franchise QB prospect based on one of those long shots. We may consider 1st round QB prospects risky (and to be honest, they are) but history says they're significantly less risky than the option we chose. We'll see how it plays out but we're betting against the odds.

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10 minutes ago, Mr. Scot said:

It's not confusing.

It's silly.

We basically ended up paying a second rounder for Darnold. The first rounder we didn't use on Fields was a choice. Just like any other first round pick, that choice may turn out to be right or it may turn out to be wrong, same as every draft in team history.

But to call that "mortgaging the future" is temper tantrum throwing by people who are having an extended sh-t fit because the team didn't pick the guy they wanted.

It's getting ridiculous 🙄

You're hilariously emotional about this.

This isn't difficult to grasp. If Darnold continues to be bad (historically likely) while Fields or Jones ends up being legit then how exactly did we not mortgage the future on Darnold? The opportunity was there to add a franchise QB prospect and we passed due to Darnold.  Darnold was available for "basically a 2nd round pick" because NFL teams know that he "basically sucks" and the success rate of former 1st rounds busts bouncing back elsewhere is very slim.

 

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Lol they didn’t mortgage the future what a dumb idea

you can’t mortgage a risk and unknown like fields and Jones who you don’t know will work out and/or where you’ll be drafting - that’s not what a ‘future’  and mortgage means

it means set in store, something inherently given to you, that benefits you, was given up like draft picks or possibly player trades included

with this idea everyone in the top half of the draft ‘mortgaged their futures’ if their pick doesn’t work out lol really dumb way to put it

 

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26 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

I don't think it's a matter of "if" with JJ. As soon as we drafted a LS in the 6th round, JJ was basically gone unless this kid forgets how to snap a football between now and TC.

Yeah clearly that's assumed, my point wasn't about JJ but about Shaq being the only player left from our SB run... Unless I'm completely blanking on someone else (or if Tre or KK are brought back...) pretty sure it's just Shaq and JJ right now and we know JJ will be gone, so just Shaq.

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1 hour ago, LinvilleGorge said:

By forgoing the opportunity to draft a franchise QB we did mortgage the future on Darnold. Ultimately, this draft will be judged by A) whether Darnold pans out and B) whether Fields and/or Jones become legit franchise QBs. If Darnold continues to be bad while one or both of them prove legit then oh wee mayne. Not a good look and not good news for the future of the franchise.

 

This is like the 10th poster recently that is OBSESSED with the 2021 draft QB's and act like there is no other possibility in the next decade to get a franchise QB if we didn't take one in THIS draft

Darnold ain't that much different than Jones or Fields fam. And if he doesn't pan out we can take one next year. Or the year after. Or the year after. Or trade for one. 

You are spoiled that we got the #1 overall pick and hit on Cam, and you act like every QB we draft in the 1st after is a homerun. It ain't.

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27 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

It does. Rhule is keenly aware of the bust rate of 1st round QB while seemingly oblivious to the reality that historically 1st round bust reclamation projects fare considerably worse. 

I get it, he's hesitant to bet big on a QB because he doesn't want to lose big but ultimately, if he doesn't find a franchise QB he'll lose his job. They're a requirement in today's NFL and Tepper knows it, hence why he preaches coach, GM, QB. Everything else is a want. Those are the three must have pieces.

Tepper has a timetable in his head and it has more to do with his timetable than whatever contract you may have (Cam).

He wanted a franchise QB because having been through that now knows for a fact YOU NEED a franchise QB. He now knows the face of your franchise the leader has to be a QB not a RB, without that jersey sales suffer and you're laying off people from the team store.

Apparently he thought Fields was that guy. I'd pray for this coach. I'm hoping beyond hope Sam is the truth, but if he isn't, I think inevitably heads will roll.

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7 minutes ago, amcoolio said:

This is like the 10th poster recently that is OBSESSED with the 2021 draft QB's and act like there is no other possibility in the next decade to get a franchise QB if we didn't take one in THIS draft

Darnold ain't that much different than Jones or Fields fam. And if he doesn't pan out we can take one next year. Or the year after. Or the year after. Or trade for one. 

You are spoiled that we got the #1 overall pick and hit on Cam, and you act like every QB we draft in the 1st after is a homerun. It ain't.

You've badly misrepresented my posts.

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6 minutes ago, rippadonn said:

Tepper has a timetable in his head and it has more to do with his timetable than whatever contract you may have (Cam).

He wanted a franchise QB because having been through that now knows for a fact YOU NEED a franchise QB. He now knows the face of your franchise the leader has to be a QB not a RB, without that jersey sales suffer and you're laying off people from the team store.

Apparently he thought Fields was that guy. I'd pray for this coach. I'm hoping beyond hope Sam is the truth, but if he isn't, I think inevitably heads will roll.

Yep. If Fields pans out and Darnold doesn't while we continue to struggle on the fields, seats are probably gonna be red hot next year. This current regime will probably be down to their last swing at QB. They've been hesitant to bet big on a QB, but if this latest bet doesn't go their way they're hand is going to probably get very forced.

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21 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

I get it, man. The concept of opportunity cost (and sunk cost for that matter) is lost on most people. Hell, most successful businesses don't even grasp it.

The reality is that successful 1st round bust reclamation projects are pretty rare and we chose to forego the opportunity to add a franchise QB prospect based on one of those long shots. We may consider 1st round QB prospects risky (and to be honest, they are) but history says they're significantly less risky than the option we chose. We'll see how it plays out but we're betting against the odds.

Don't take this the wrong way, but I think you are making a big assumption that Justin Fields or Mac Jones will be franchise QB's. Based on their school pedigree, both have a greater chance of being bad to average than true "franchise QB's". I just can't see us all looking back on this draft 5 years for now saying, "We missed out on franchise greatness when passed on Fields and/or Jones in the 2021 draft. 

I know the same can be said of Darnold after the failed experience in NY, but that CB selection was exactly what we needed in a division where we face Michael Thomas, Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, and now Kyle Pitts twice a year. Besides, I don't see any of the QB's selected after Horn at #8 significantly outplaying Darnold this year.

We got enough draft capital to move up next year if we need to take a QB or trade for one, and whoever we would be getting is going to be in lot better situation than Bridgewater was when he came to the team.

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